True contenders...
I'd say both LA teams, Milwaukee are true contenders. There is another group knocking at the door that if everything broke right maybe it happens... I'd say Houston, Miami, Toronto... maybe Denver. Then there is a tier below that with Utah, Philly, Boston that has some roster issues... may beat a couple teams in the playoffs because of matchup advantages, but would lose to 3-4 teams because of matchup issues and will surely face those teams at some point.
I mean if season ends today we get Houston without home court advantage, win that then you get the Lakers without home court advantage, then maybe you get the Clips or Denver... all of those teams create some issues for us. Can we beat them on any given night in the regular season... for sure. 4 out of 7 times without homecourt... nah.
We aren't trash... we are very good... with very solvable problems... that we don't seem to want to solve.
I agree with your top 3. I disagree with everything after that. For me rn it's....
Tier 1 (solidified as contenders)
Lakers
Bucks
Clippers
Tier 2A (ceiling of tier 1 but minor flaw)
Jazz, flaw: inconsistency
Tier 2B (ceiling of tier 1 but significant flaws)
Celtics, flaw: bigs
Raptors, flaw: offensive creation
Heat, flaw: experience, offensive creation in a playoff setting
Tier 3 (Longshots with bigger flaws)
Rockets, flaw: Defense, gimmick scheme
Pacers, flaw: Offense
Nuggets, flaw: No second/third star, offensive creation in a playoff setting
76ers, flaw: Roster makeup, spacing
Mavs, flaw: Defense, experience