What's new
By:

2020 Presidential election

Oh. Alrighty then. So the pro life movement is for abortion when it benefits their politicians? Okay, that makes sense...

 
FAILED STATE said:
National polls don’t matter. Biden isn’t polling any better Hillary at this stage in several swing states. If the election were held today, the EC totals would be uncomfortably close.
Click to expand...

I don’t think you have your facts correct. Hillary maintained a 3-5 pt national adv while Biden’s maintained a 8+ pt lead nationally.

Swing states have seen Biden up beyond The MOE for a few weeks now. In 2016, trump was within a percentage point of Clinton In Florida. In 2020? He’s down 5 percentage points. In 2016 trump was within 3 Points of clinton in Pennsylvania. In 2020? He’s down 5-7 points. In 2016 he was within 4 points to Clinton in Michigan. In 2020? He’s down 8 and has stopped advertising. In 2016 he was within a point in North Carolina. Today? He’s down by 5. Hell, in Arizona he was even up (and won) in 2016 by about 2 percentage points. In 2020? He’s losing by 4 (beyond the MOE), a 6 point swing.

Whereas, Hillary’s biggest lead was right now 4 years ago because of the Access Hollywood tape. Which was quickly forgotten about because Russia/Wikileaks released podesta’s emails and later Comey reopened the investigation. Do we expect a similar investigation into Biden? Would it really matter seeing how many people have already voted?
  • I think we also need to consider early voting is sky high.
  • Biden is much more well liked than Clinton.
  • Early voting is already happening and it’s overwhelmingly democratic. October surprises will have decreased effect due to early voting
  • trump is the incompetent incumbent.
  • covid.
  • third party candidates were getting 3-6 percent of the votes. This year they’re taking in 1-2 percent.
  • And most of all, Trump will constantly do something stupid every single day.

    He’s the constant reminder of what a **** up 2016 was.
 
I don't feel comfortable about any predictive polls and I won't feel comfortable about this election until trump has left the white house

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
 
The Thriller said:
I don’t think you have your facts correct. Hillary maintained a 3-5 pt national adv while Biden’s maintained a 8+ pt lead nationally.

Swing states have seen Biden up beyond The MOE for a few weeks now. In 2016, trump was within a percentage point of Clinton In Florida. In 2020? He’s down 5 percentage points. In 2016 trump was within 3 Points of clinton in Pennsylvania. In 2020? He’s down 5-7 points. In 2016 he was within 4 points to Clinton in Michigan. In 2020? He’s down 8 and has stopped advertising. In 2016 he was within a point in North Carolina. Today? He’s down by 5. Hell, in Arizona he was even up (and won) in 2016 by about 2 percentage points. In 2020? He’s losing by 4 (beyond the MOE), a 6 point swing.

Whereas, Hillary’s biggest lead was right now 4 years ago because of the Access Hollywood tape. Which was quickly forgotten about because Russia/Wikileaks released podesta’s emails and later Comey reopened the investigation. Do we expect a similar investigation into Biden? Would it really matter seeing how many people have already voted?
  • I think we also need to consider early voting is sky high.
  • Biden is much more well liked than Clinton.
  • Early voting is already happening and it’s overwhelmingly democratic. October surprises will have decreased effect due to early voting
  • trump is the incompetent incumbent.
  • covid.
  • third party candidates were getting 3-6 percent of the votes. This year they’re taking in 1-2 percent.
  • And most of all, Trump will constantly do something stupid every single day.

    He’s the constant reminder of what a **** up 2016 was.
Click to expand...
Another factor last time was that there were MANY more undecided voters and voters who disliked both candidates. Those voters broke in favor of Trump in an unprecedented way.

This time there aren't many truly undecided voters, and what has been seen so far is that things have broken in Biden's favor more than in Trump's.

Still, I'm not counting chickens until the polls close. I was shocked last time and I'm aware that it can happen again.
 
The Thriller said:
I don’t think you have your facts correct. Hillary maintained a 3-5 pt national adv while Biden’s maintained a 8+ pt lead nationally.

Swing states have seen Biden up beyond The MOE for a few weeks now. In 2016, trump was within a percentage point of Clinton In Florida. In 2020? He’s down 5 percentage points. In 2016 trump was within 3 Points of clinton in Pennsylvania. In 2020? He’s down 5-7 points. In 2016 he was within 4 points to Clinton in Michigan. In 2020? He’s down 8 and has stopped advertising. In 2016 he was within a point in North Carolina. Today? He’s down by 5. Hell, in Arizona he was even up (and won) in 2016 by about 2 percentage points. In 2020? He’s losing by 4 (beyond the MOE), a 6 point swing.

Whereas, Hillary’s biggest lead was right now 4 years ago because of the Access Hollywood tape. Which was quickly forgotten about because Russia/Wikileaks released podesta’s emails and later Comey reopened the investigation. Do we expect a similar investigation into Biden? Would it really matter seeing how many people have already voted?
  • I think we also need to consider early voting is sky high.
  • Biden is much more well liked than Clinton.
  • Early voting is already happening and it’s overwhelmingly democratic. October surprises will have decreased effect due to early voting
  • trump is the incompetent incumbent.
  • covid.
  • third party candidates were getting 3-6 percent of the votes. This year they’re taking in 1-2 percent.
  • And most of all, Trump will constantly do something stupid every single day.

    He’s the constant reminder of what a **** up 2016 was.
Click to expand...
 
FAILED STATE said:
I think Biden has a 3-1 lead in a best-of-seven series. Anyone here comfortable with that lead??
Click to expand...

Absolutely. Most teams win with that kind of lead. And since Trump is carmelo with Westbrook’s temperament, I’m fine going up against that disaster. He’s not bringing his campaign back from this 1-3 hole.
 
Gameface said:
Another factor last time was that there were MANY more undecided voters and voters who disliked both candidates. Those voters broke in favor of Trump in an unprecedented way.

This time there aren't many truly undecided voters, and what has been seen so far is that things have broken in Biden's favor more than in Trump's.

Still, I'm not counting chickens until the polls close. I was shocked last time and I'm aware that it can happen again.
Click to expand...

You’re right. There are far fewer undecided. Those undecided are breaking Biden’s way. Personally, I’m not worried about this guy making a comeback. This is happening right now:



 
  • Like
Reactions: Red
FAILED STATE said:
Click to expand...


So Ari wants to keep Democrats scared, which is fine. But here’s the truth, even using RCP, one can see far more movement in the 2016 cycle while 2020 has been pretty static.

Clinton at this time 4 years ago saw her best polls. It was artificially pumped up because of the access Hollywood tape. But then it returned to be close (within the MOE). And then she failed to campaign there, moving resources to Arizona and Georgia.

Meanwhile, just in Michigan, Biden has maintained a lead of at least 5 pts (begins the MOE) since the spring. Furthermore, Trump isn’t even advertising in Michigan, which indicates that he’s already waving the white flag.

Trump is having to exhaust resources just to keep Texas. That’s not a good sign.
 
FAILED STATE said:
Click to expand...


We definitely have got to show up and win. But I don’t think we should be so scared of a 2016 repeat. It was such an outlier. From russian disinformation, to Clinton and Comey, to Trump getting help from wiki, To 3rd party candidates, etc. Harry Reid recruited Obama back in 2007 to run because he knew Clinton’s likability was an issue. Democrats tried to force it in 2015-2016 and it bit them.
 


that’s not a good trend for donald, especially with all the early voting.



This really doomed Clinton. She never could fix her likability.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page
Back
Top