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2021 NBA Draft Preview (new thread)

LoPo said:
New Orleans just saved $25 million this summer and $38 million next summer. This deal applies to so much more than what they do with Ball.

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Wait.. you only look at one deal at a time but look at how this applies to so much more than Ball?

25M this year and 21M next year actually... and that is if they let JV walk. They only clear that cap space if they let Ball and Hart walk... they could have just kept the assets and re-signed those guys.

This absolutely smells like the deal Vlade Divac did to clear space for Iggy by giving up draft capital... Iggy ended up leveraging them to get where he really wanted to go and then they signed Rondo and Boom Bitches instead.

If NO strikes out in FA and just brings back Ball and Hart then they gave all that **** up to save the owners some money and get out of Adams deal a year early. I'm sure Zion will be impressed with that. If they did it to get Lowry that will help them win for a year or two and short change them in the future.

We can go ahead and pause this convo until after the draft and FA.
 
KqWIN said:
You should be able to assess the relative strength of draft. Even if you're not comparing it to next year, you ought to have a good grasp on the strength of the players available and how they compare to a typical draft.

You're absolutely right about having a risk assessment for the next year pick and comparing it to the risk assessment to this year's options. That is my entire point. You shouldn't indiscriminately draft without considering the other options. If you don't like the current options, it's not because you didn't try hard enough or do enough scouting and you shouldn't draft someone you don't believe in just because someone out there is going to be a steal.

If you like the future options, whether that's because you want to execute for a trade, don't like the current prospects, or you like the chances of where the acquired pick will land, that is not cowardice.
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Not really on the strength of the draft... Grimes was a top 10 guy in his HS class and we are wondering if he's worth the #30th pick... he wouldn't have been drafted after his Freshmen year. Guys fly up and down the board constantly.

On the other point I view it differently... its not necessarily about trying hard (although that is part of it) but if you decide there is no one you like at #30 and another team does and takes that player... it might very well be that they are better than you at spotting the right prospects. No one is 100%, but if you are more confident in the murky future you just might not be decisive enough or good enough to trust yourself. Don't throw a dart... but also don't stare at the board and say " I think I'll be better at this next go around".
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Wait.. you only look at one deal at a time but look at how this applies to so much more than Ball?

25M this year and 21M next year actually... and that is if they let JV walk. They only clear that cap space if they let Ball and Hart walk... they could have just kept the assets and re-signed those guys.

This absolutely smells like the deal Vlade Divac did to clear space for Iggy by giving up draft capital... Iggy ended up leveraging them to get where he really wanted to go and then they signed Rondo and Boom Bitches instead.

If NO strikes out in FA and just brings back Ball and Hart then they gave all that **** up to save the owners some money and get out of Adams deal a year early. I'm sure Zion will be impressed with that. If they did it to get Lowry that will help them win for a year or two and short change them in the future.

We can go ahead and pause this convo until after the draft and FA.
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If we had two bad contracts that were two years long, I would sacrifice 7 draft spots to shed them.

New Orleans has so much flexibility now.

As for Bledsoe, one minute you are saying it's a good move and the next you are saying it's savings for Memphis next year like they would just waive him and pay $4 million.

I just don't like the trade for Memphis at all. They set their conference rival up for a big target while they got overpaid role players.

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LoPo said:
If we had two bad contracts that were two years long, I would sacrifice 7 draft spots to shed them.

New Orleans has so much flexibility now.

As for Bledsoe, one minute you are saying it's a good move and the next you are saying it's savings for Memphis next year like they would just waive him and pay $4 million.

I just don't like the trade for Memphis at all. They set their conference rival up for a big target while they got overpaid role players.

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Please point to where I said it was a good move because of Bledsoe. It’s a good move because they used space to give themselves a MUCH better shot at landing a blue chip guy and they got another first too. If they can flip Bledsoe for something then that is icing on the cake. If they just waive him a 4M cap hit is no big deal.

If NO gets that big target they have to give up two younger players to do it. They are also going for a guy that is just as likely to be a bad contract as he is to being an awesome pickup. They think they are doing the CP deal… they aren’t ready yet.

NO could have just waived and stretched Bledsoe instead and gotten basically the same space. Let’s see what big fish they land and what they paid to get him and then judge the deal.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Not really on the strength of the draft... Grimes was a top 10 guy in his HS class and we are wondering if he's worth the #30th pick... he wouldn't have been drafted after his Freshmen year. Guys fly up and down the board constantly.

On the other point I view it differently... its not necessarily about trying hard (although that is part of it) but if you decide there is no one you like at #30 and another team does and takes that player... it might very well be that they are better than you at spotting the right prospects. No one is 100%, but if you are more confident in the murky future you just might not be decisive enough or good enough to trust yourself. Don't throw a dart... but also don't stare at the board and say " I think I'll be better at this next go around".
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I’m not talking about individual players throughout the years, I’m talking about guys available at 30 this year compared to the others. You might think the guys available feel like they would go higher or lower in a different year. Assessing the strength of the draft is pretty standard. Hell, I even saw you mention earlier that the draft guys think this year is strong. Teams are going to have their own opinions too and that should effect how they operate.

The other team could also be worse at scouting than you and you are confident in that decision because of the scouting work you put in. There’s really no reason to assume that disliking the pick means you did less work. If they really want someone at 30 that you don’t, it could be their lack of due diligence. If we’re talking about confidence in scouting, why the hell is good to have more confidence in a different teams scouting their your own. If you change your opinion based on another team that is actually showing weakness and having no confidence in yourself.

If you were lazy and did no scouting like me you’d find guys you like and dislike. You would also find guys you like and dislike if you spent 10,000 hours on each player. You can’t start loving the draft out of sheer willpower. If you trust yourself, make moves based on your own analysis.
 
KqWIN said:
I’m not talking about individual players throughout the years, I’m talking about guys available at 30 this year compared to the others. You might think the guys available feel like they would go higher or lower in a different year. Assessing the strength of the draft is pretty standard. Hell, I even saw you mention earlier that the draft guys think this year is strong. Teams are going to have their own opinions too and that should effect how they operate.

The other team could also be worse at scouting than you and you are confident in that decision because of the scouting work you put in. There’s really no reason to assume that disliking the pick means you did less work. If they really want someone at 30 that you don’t, it could be their lack of due diligence. If we’re talking about confidence in scouting, why the hell is good to have more confidence in a different teams scouting their your own. If you change your opinion based on another team that is actually showing weakness and having no confidence in yourself.

If you were lazy and did no scouting like me you’d find guys you like and dislike. You would also find guys you like and dislike if you spent 10,000 hours on each player. You can’t start loving the draft out of sheer willpower. If you trust yourself, make moves based on your own analysis.
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But to know if the guys in this draft are worse than those in future drafts you have to project what is available in the future… which is not going to be accurate.

Listened to some well known experts… basically every year there are roughly 20 nba players in the draft… said he didn’t think there was reason to believe this draft would have more or less than the average but felt that the “hits” would potentially be bigger than normal in the 20s range. So there may be a few extra doubles instead of singles.

You go ahead and believe whatever you like. I’ve watched DL be sloppy and passive for too many years to think give guys the benefit of the doubt. These guys are like politicians… job preservation is their primary concern.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
theathletic.com

John Hollinger’s 2021 NBA Mock Draft: Cade Cunningham goes No. 1, trade talk dominates rest

Cade Cunningham goes No. 1 in John Hollinger's final mock draft. After chaos after that with a multitude of possible trades in play.
theathletic.com theathletic.com

Seems like a lot of analyst are zeroing on Grimes for us. It makes sense because Grimes has basically been the only Utah Jazz draft news story from any of the big Utah sources.
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Is JZ the one that telegraphs our picks every year?
 
It's going to be a gas when we spend all of Thursday viewing the draft, watching the picks trickle down until we pick someone who we either like or shrug off just to find out within a few short minutes afterwards via Twitter that the pick is being conveyed to another team as part of a Faves salary dump.

I've ordered a replacement remote from Xfinity just in case.
 
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