2023 NBA Draft Megathread
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Handlogten's Heros
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My whole issue is if the shot develops what is he? What if it never comes around? Is he a better version of KO if the shot works? Is he Henry Ellenson if it doesn't?
Guys drafted around him have "ifs" too... but if the "ifs" actually work their upside goes to the moon. What if Hawkins develops some on ball creation? What if Keyonte George can play pg? What if Jett Howard can do 1 more thing other than shoot?
We are making bets on all these guys... so what is the payout if the "ifs" workout?
For the record I would not take him at 13 if the board fell the way I think it would. Especially if a scenario happened where we could end up with Hendricks at 9 and Wallace at 13.
If we ended up moving up from 27 to like 18 to take him as our third pick that would be the most ideal to me.
Main thing I notice with Rupert is that he has Dante wrist on his shot. The wrist doesnt fully bend into a 90 degree waiter position that is traditionally thought as optimal.
kcgar
Well-Known Member
That is very intriguing. He also looks TALL.
Yeah that would be a straight butthole draft.
I will say for the record I would totally take Sensebaugh at 27 despite my general dislike for him. Most of that is born from mocks of him in the early teens which i just dont agree with. But at 27 youre absolutely looking for anyone with a real bankable skill and Brice his a bucket getter.
seattlejazzfan
Well-Known Member
reminds me a lot of exum, tbh. a lot of length, pretty good vertical athlete, solid defensive potential due to the length, suspect shooting and scoring ability.
seattlejazzfan
Well-Known Member
same. i cooled on sensabaugh a lot during the season, but at 27 i wouldn't hate that pick - unless a guy like leonard miller or sidy were on the board.
Arguably the best post of this whole thread
Oh absolutely, Im taking either one of them over Brice there but I think both are gone before then.
The other difference is that I'm not going around guaranteeing that Clowney is going to be a three point shooter.
It's one thing to believe in a guy and think he will be the exception, it's another to act like it's not an exception that someone who sucks at shooting 3's at college will become good at it in the NBA. Flip's percentage isn't just bad, it's very bad and even lower than the "low 30's" mark being brought up multiple times. He's not even at low 30's! You seem to think that the fact that some guys did it automatically means Flip will. It's not impossible, it would just be exceptional for him to improve that much. I'm not saying it's impossible, but the confidence that people speak about his jump shot is kinda crazy.
It's also not the only concern with Flip. He has the worst percentage at the rim of any big man prospect, and it's not by a little it's by a lot. If it weren't for GG, he'd really be on his own island as everyone is like 10%+ better than him. I can already see the "bad spacing" comments. He's not the only big that plays with poor spacing. Two most important areas on the court for him and he was really bad at both.
It's funny because I think I was one of the first people who respond to @Handlogten's Heros saying that I like Flip..He's got an interesting mix of skills and size for sure...but it became clear that people like him MUCH more and too the point where they don't see being awful at the rim and awful behind the three point line as red flags.
I will just go back to one single draft lottery (not the whole draft) 4 years ago. All of these guys have a lower 3FG% in the pros than they did in college.
Ayton
Bagley
Jaren
Trae
Carter Jr
Knox
Bridges
Bridges
Shai
Robinson
Wow, it's almost like the NBA is harder game and better competition makes it harder to shoot. Please note I am not making this stupid argument, I am pointing out how stupid it is to lean on antidotes to strengthen an argument. That's a nice list you got there, but you can look at one single draft lottery to find 10 counterpoints. It's not impossible for a guy to improve his 3 ball in the league and not uncommon necessarily, but if you go down the list of good shooters in the NBA the large majority of them did not suck very badly before they got into the NBA at it. If you are able to develop a 3 point shot after sucking at shooting before entering the league you are the exception not the rule. Listing a bunch of anecdotes that happen to fit your opinion is not "proof" and hardly an argument at all when it's so easy to provide more anecdotes of the contrary.
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There are exceptions on either end....to pretend like shooting ability entering the league is just irrelevant is so silly. If all it takes is naming a few guys who improved their shots there are what does it prove if you name a few names that did not? Nothing. You don't prove something by searching for anecdotes to match your opinion.
Arent you all making the same point: tiny pre-college 3pt percentage sample doesn't really tell you anything definitive about how someone will shoot in the NBA?
This dude really tried using Ayton and Bagley to prove a point about 3PT%. How disingenuous is that?
I don’t think you had enough paragraphs.
It's a stupid argument, but it is the same argument you just used. I can pick any draft and name a bunch of players that didn't improve their 3FG% in the pros. Must be true because I have a list right? Yeah...it's ****ing stupid. It's almost like you have to evaluate a trend by evaluating the trend and not search for outliers.
BTW, both those guys shot 3's in college and did not develop their 3 ball in the pros even though people expected it. Everyone could have sworn that Ayton could shoot the 3, can't do it in the pros. Same with Bagley.
Like @Bodhi just said it sounds it’s hard to project how players with extremely small sample sizes will shoot the 3 in the NBA. Also, freshman with small sample sizes is even harder. You should almost just throw that number out for freshman because in the majority of cases it’s meaningless.
Also, please stop being disingenuous. Ayton shot 35 threes total and Bagley 58 threes total. Nobody was swearing that Ayton could shoot the 3 with 35 total threes attempted. Might as well throw out Kessler’s 3PT% in college while we’re at it.