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2023 NBA Draft Megathread

Keyonte's evaluation is very similar to GG Jackson's except that Keyonte was underperforming and taking a lot of shots on a good team instead of underperforming on a bad team and taking a lot of shots. He's even been noted as having negative/immature body language like GG.

If you really believe in Keyonte it comes down to eye test, just like GG.

The main differences between the two for me are age (13 months difference), size/positional scarcity, and defensive upside. There's a lot of Keyonte George's out there and there are more coming. GG is just flat out more unique.

Disagree. Keyonte has intrigue on paper not just on film. His extreme volume of 3's combined with his higher free throw rate is intriguing. These are two things I always look for and this is where Keyonte stands out on paper. If you can get to the free throw line and shoot off the dribble that is a dangerous combo. While both were likely overextended in their NCAA roles, Keyonte was still a much more efficient player than GG and he has more projectable, NBA ready skills. You may consider their shot creating/making similar (they weren't) but Keyonte was a much better overall player. You might give Keyonte a mediocre grade for his passing/defense, for example, but you have to give GG and F for those things. If GG went back to school and was as good as Keyonte it would take a massive improvement in multiple facets of the game.

Additionally, if you go deeper in the numbers you will find that Keyonte underperformed on stationary catch and shoot shots and was solid on his pullups. The opposite was true with GG who was good on spot ups but bad as a pullup shooter. When you're looking for a guy with top end offensive talent, I would bet on the guy who makes the hard shots and misses the easy one's instead of the other way around. S/O Gradey Dick and the weirdest shot chart ever.
 
Wallace or Black... I think both have tremendous upside and are much more likely to realize that upside.

You have literally no idea if this is true. Regarding Black, not being willing/able to shoot is a huge flaw for a player you view as a point guard. Regarding Wallace, where's the upside? He doesn't change speeds, change directions or get on the rim very often. His shooting numbers are pedestrian. He's likely going to be the smallest player on the floor. I think he'll be a solid player, but he doesn't have near the star potential that GG does.
 
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I can't wait for all these YOLO draft folks who are extreme risk takers to come back and complain about how we passed up on Mikal Bridges to take Kevin Knox in a couple years... assuming we take GG over clearly better prospects. Gotta take wild riskzzzzz doe!!!!

Thing is, GG isn't that risky. As I've said before, as long as he's coachable, he can be Jeff Green by the end of his second season. The only real risk factor with GG is maturity and coachability.
 
You take guys that are good basketball players that have a reasonable path to playing time and you should have more success in the draft than many. Less about position and just upside cuz McDaniels was also a better pick that Udoka.

With GG he was an iso gunner in a unique body... but he wasn't particularly effective, did the other stuff horribly, and was immature multiple times during the season. If he is a completely different player than he showed then it might work out I guess.

If you watch GG at Team USA, he played defense, moved the ball and was drawing comparisons to Bam Adebayo. GG was an iso-gunner at South Carolina due to the situation there. He needed to have big games or SC had no chance to win.
 
I think Rudy Gay would be a great vet to have to help GG with everything. Then add Will and the development staff and I think GG turns things around. His flashes will become the norm.
 
Also...we've seen recently that guys with low upside like Desmond Bane can actually be the safe and high upside pick.

Which is why he was drafted at #30. He's a good player and has shown upside. He's not an All Star / All NBA type. The Grizzlies already had Ja and JJJ when they picked Bane.
 
Here's what I would add:

JHS - The knock on him is that he is incredibly inefficient because he is so mid range heavy. He is one of the worst players in the draft (if not the worst) at getting to and finishing around the basket. Also a very low stocks (steals and blocks) player. These things reflect the low athleticism that you picked up on.An optimist would look at his work in the mid range game and fall in love with how polished this part of his game is. A pessimist would say that's the only good part about his game and it's the least important as it is the least efficient shot in the game.
Ah... I see... yeah... he looked athletically deficient and it seems to project into some important areas - finishing at the rim and defensive metrics... I still like the skill though... not sure he will be my favorite at 16 but if he falls to 28... I think I'd be good with it.

Hawkins - Probably the best movement shooter in the draft. A little small/skinny but good athlete. I think opinions on his defense are somewhat mixed, but vary from the range of bad to average. Plays hard both ways but not enough size/strength. Some believe he could be that tier 1 shooter at the next level.
Yeah, he seems like a really good off-ball offensive player with some defensive upside. If we think his defense will pan out, he is the type of piece every team needs.
Keyonte - FG% is horrible, but TS% is higher than someone like JHS because he shoots so many three's and gets to the line. Was a top 8ish prospect all year and fell after a rough finish to the season (he got injured). Has the chucker label and that's earned, but has some complimentary skills as well (passing flashes + physical player on both ends).
I watched him in the NCAA tournament and I didn't love what I saw, but maybe he was injured at the time. The highlights show a bit of a different picture. I want to see a few full games of when he was healthy. Might be good pick at 16...
NSJ - Came into the year as a top 6ish prospect. Was injured most of the year, when he did play kinda stunk it up. People are in love with his floater, but it barely went in. I kinda think he's Lou Williams if Lou couldn't get to the FT line.
My least favorite player so far.
Murray - Boring, even I don't care lol
Yep... meh...
Dariq - Was the #1 guy in this class, has foot injuries. Ironically came into college with an explosive athlete label, but this season was clearly not healthy and was terrible around the basket but a very good shooter. Kinda flipped the script. Had another foot procedure this off-season raising more concerns.
I think I like him best from pretty much ... ANYONE past the top 10 or so... If our medical staff gives it the green light, I think he might be a good shot to take at high upside player who usually won't be there.
GG - Was the #1 guy but reclassified (like Bagley did). Polarizing prospect. Great highlights, but that's because highlights are highlights. Some ugly film otherwise that lead to those ugly numbers. Eye of the beholder prospect. He was awful, but he is the youngest guy in the draft.
Indeed... it's not even just the %s... his rebounds are really low too... blocks and steals are not great either... his stat profile is horrible. But there are intriguing flashes.
JHS is a guy I'm coming around on. I think my last big board he was right outside the top 30, but he's probably closer to 20 for me now. He's just kind of boring tbh, but I think some of that might have been Indiana and how Trayce Jackson Davis focused their offense was. JHS probably has the most "mature" PNR skill in the draft with his pace and how he frees up room with snake dribbles and getting to his mid-range spots. Would be interesting to see his decision making skills in a more spaced court.
Yeah... he might indeed shine even more in an NBA game and NBA-spaced floor. But some of his athletic deficiencies might get exposed more too with more space for him to cover.

Whitehead is tough to scout because he was never healthy last year. He broke his foot late August and missed most of Dukes training camp so he really struggled to start the season. Then he finally seemed to be shaking off the rust a little and got injured again. He came back again but never looked right. Then of course a few weeks ago we heard that his foot never healed properly so he needed another surgery. If healthy he was my top choice at 16 but the depth is so good in that range that I don't think I would take the risk now. My dream is him slipping to 28 with the injury concerns but there are a bunch of teams in that 20-27 that have multiple picks who I think will gladly take a flyer on him.
He's one of my favorites so far on highlights. No idea how serious his injuries are, but purely talent-wise he seems like he doesn't belong in that area of the draft. He looks more like top 10 pick than 20ish... I hope our medical staff clears him and Danny takes a chance on him.

I think this guy is undervalued. Seems to have endless energy and I think he could be deadly off of screens both as a shooter or curling for layups. His on ball defense is very good... he plays hard there but he is slight and on the smaller side so he may just be adequate instead of good on defense.
Yeah, noticed he moves a lot off-ball... could be a really nice piece IF his defense pans out.
Highly ranked prospect... knee injury to start the season and it may have bothered him during the season. He's not my cup of tea. One of the evaluators made me laugh when they talked about his defense... the long and short of it was he tries but looks like he's never been coached at all as his technique and awareness are so bad.
I think Nick Smith has been my least favorite prospect from ALL of them so far. I don't think I want him, even based on just highlights. He has to be insane on defense for me to want him.

OLD AF... but likely a good pick in the 20s as I have no doubt he will be an nba rotation wing... even if its a low upside wing that's something to bank on for cheap.
I don't think I want him at 9 or 16 and he probably won't be there at 28 so... I can do without him, I think...
Dude was way more athletic in HS. had and injury coming into the season and struggled to get started. Had surgery on the same injured foot recently... so likely bothered him all year. High upside guy in the teens/20s that also has a decent floor if healthy since he can shoot the piss out of the ball.


Crazy polarizing player... this is the right spot for him though.
I will definitely watch a game or two of him before the draft.
 
Leonard Miller 18 ppg on 64.5% TS in the G League. Brice Sensabaugh 16 ppg on 58.7% TS in college. Now I don't think Miller's better numbers in the G League mean unequivocally that he's a better bucket getter than Sensabaugh (i think there is an argument to be made that the fast pace and more open style makes it a little easier to get numbers in the g league), but I also don't think the opposite is true either (yes, the pace is faster and it's more open, but the competition is better and more experienced as well). based on their production in their respective leagues, there isn't really any evidence Miller can't get buckets like Brice. if anything, you have to lean toward the idea that he can get buckets like Brice, possibly better.

as HH said, he gets his buckets in different ways, but nobody is going to say Giannis is an inferior bucket getter to Brice just because he does it differently.
Correct... I think Brice is a guy you through the ball to get you a bucket. Which is why he's gonna be viewed as a bucket getter.

I'm just super impressed with Miller's production, size, good athleticism, and all the background stuff seems incredibly positive. Wonky *** shots sometimes work...Tyrese, Jaren, etc. It isn't like he needs to be a volume shooter and his FT% is good. In the G league you shoot 1 free throw for 2 points... so he should have twice as many FTs... BUT you should also factor that free throw percentage on the first free throw is lower than the second free throw... not sure any definitive research has been done on this but a quick search of the web says 3-4%. Might have more shooting potential than you think.
 
When crafting a big board, there's an obvious raw talent drop around the 20 or so, so if by pick 20 he is still on the board, I think teams will just take him. I think his absolute floor would be Portland at 23 given how much Schmitz believed in the HS tape of Shaedon Sharpe, Whitehead should give him similar feels.

Im doing a rough draft of a board now, and I have Whitehead in the lottery.
Would you draft him at 16?
 
Oh he gets buckets... just not in iso. I think he could be great in the screen, DHO game and be tough to stop below the foul line.

If a 19 year old, who was super productive against G League grown *** men, who also shot 79% from the free throw line, can raise his 3p% from 30% to 37% then what do we have? Also a legit 6-10 with a 7-2 wingspan.

I don't mind Leonard Miller in the 16 - 20 range.
 
Probably not. Keyonte, Bufkin, Hawkins, and GG would have to be off the board for me to even think about it. That's the group I've zeroed in on there.
I think I'd take him over... most of those.(if his medical is good enough)
 
You have literally no idea if this is true. Regarding Black, not being willing/able to shoot is a huge flaw for a player you view as a point guard. Regarding Wallace, where's the upside? He doesn't change speeds, change directions or get on the rim very often. His shooting numbers are pedestrian. He's likely going to be the smallest player on the floor. I think he'll be a solid player, but he doesn't have near the star potential that GG does.
Neither do you? The reason I said they will have a better chance at realizing their individual upsides is coachability and work ethic. They both have A+ attitudes by all accounts... GG is ummmm.... lacking so far.

Wallace doesn't have to be spectacular on offense to be a high level starter on a playoff team. Black is a giant pg... neither are Tyler Zeller here... just because they are good functional players now doesn't mean they can't be borderline all-stars later.
 
Yeah... he might indeed shine even more in an NBA game and NBA-spaced floor. But some of his athletic deficiencies might get exposed more too with more space for him to cover.
I wouldnt say he's a bad athlete. He's a better man defender than say, Brandin Podziemski. He can move his feet and he's huge. The at rim stuff can be explained by two big lineups and a post-centric offense.
 
Correct... I think Brice is a guy you through the ball to get you a bucket. Which is why he's gonna be viewed as a bucket getter.

I'm just super impressed with Miller's production, size, good athleticism, and all the background stuff seems incredibly positive. Wonky *** shots sometimes work...Tyrese, Jaren, etc. It isn't like he needs to be a volume shooter and his FT% is good. In the G league you shoot 1 free throw for 2 points... so he should have twice as many FTs... BUT you should also factor that free throw percentage on the first free throw is lower than the second free throw... not sure any definitive research has been done on this but a quick search of the web says 3-4%. Might have more shooting potential than you think.

I like both Miller and Clowney. Both guys have suspect jumpers (Miller better #'s, Clowney better form) which give them lots of upside potential, but I think both guys also can have a career if they can't shoot it.
 
I like both Miller and Clowney. Both guys have suspect jumpers (Miller better #'s, Clowney better form) which give them lots of upside potential, but I think both guys also can have a career if they can't shoot it.
And both have skills that will get them on the court early in their careers to prove the can or can't shoot.
 
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