honestly it's impossible to know that right now. olynyk was so much more proven/advanced coming out of gonzaga. i get the ellenson comparison and actually like that one more than olynyk, but just because he compares better to Ellenson doesn't mean he can't have a much better career than Ellenson, perhaps a career more similar to that of olynyk.
I'm still kinda surprised Ellenson didn't pan out. If he was reincarnated and in this draft again I would probably bet on him making it again, but like you said it just doesn't always work out that way. I agree that Filipowski is much more similar to Ellenson than Olynyk out of college.
The draft isn't a perfect science and it's always good to remind yourself of that.