2023 NBA Draft Megathread

[KqWIN]

Jimmer shot 39% from 3 in college and 37% from 3 in the NBA.

Adam Morrison shot 37% in college, 42% his last year, and managed 33% in the nba.

I am sure we can find a lot more that did worse. My bet is it is a pretty normal distribution for how many find their shot in the nba vs how many lose their shot in the nba.

There are exceptions on either end....to pretend like shooting ability entering the league is just irrelevant is so silly. If all it takes is naming a few guys who improved their shots there are what does it prove if you name a few names that did not? Nothing. You don't prove something by searching for anecdotes to match your opinion.

 

[Bodhi]

I will just go back to one single draft lottery (not the whole draft) 4 years ago. All of these guys have a lower 3FG% in the pros than they did in college

Ayton
Bagley
Jaren
Trae
Carter Jr
Knox
Bridges
Bridges
Shai
Robinson

Wow, it's almost like the NBA is harder game and better competition makes it harder to shoot. Please note I am not making this stupid argument, I am pointing out how stupid it is to lean on antidotes to strengthen an argument. That's a nice list you got there, but you can look at one single draft lottery to find 10 counterpoints. It's not impossible for a guy to improve his 3 ball in the league and not uncommon necessarily, but if you go down the list of good shooters in the NBA the large majority of them did not suck very badly before they got into the NBA at it. If you are able to develop a 3 point shot after sucking at shooting before entering the league you are the exception not the rule.

Arent you all making the same point: tiny pre-college 3pt percentage sample doesn't really tell you anything definitive about how someone will shoot in the NBA?

 

[Elizah Huge]

This dude really tried using Ayton and Bagley to prove a point about 3PT%. How disingenuous is that?

 

[default]

The other difference is that I'm not going around guaranteeing that Clowney is going to be a three point shooter.

It's one thing to believe in a guy and think he will be the exception, it's another to act like it's not an exception that someone who sucks at shooting 3's at college will become good at it in the NBA. Flip's percentage isn't just bad, it's very bad and even lower than the "low 30's" mark being brought up multiple times. He's not even at low 30's! You seem to think that the fact that some guys did it automatically means Flip will. It's not impossible, it would just be exceptional for him to improve that much. I'm not saying it's impossible, but the confidence that people speak about his jump shot is kinda crazy.

It's also not the only concern with Flip. He has the worst percentage at the rim of any big man prospect, and it's not by a little it's by a lot. If it weren't for GG, he'd really be on his own island as everyone is like 10%+ better than him. I can already see the "bad spacing" comments. He's not the only big that plays with poor spacing. Two most important areas on the court for him and he was really bad at both.

It's funny because I think I was one of the first people who respond to @Handlogten's Heros saying that I like Flip..He's got an interesting mix of skills and size for sure...but it became clear that people like him MUCH more and too the point where they don't see being awful at the rim and awful behind the three point line as red flags.

I don’t think you had enough paragraphs.

 

[KqWIN]

I don’t think you had enough paragraphs.

I should just cite fake statistics like @Saint Cy of JFC . More effective around these parts

 

[KqWIN]

This dude really tried using Ayton and Bagley to prove a point about 3PT%. How disingenuous is that?

It's a stupid argument, but it is the same argument you just used. I can pick any draft and name a bunch of players that didn't improve their 3FG% in the pros. Must be true because I have a list right? Yeah...it's ****ing stupid. It's almost like you have to evaluate a trend by evaluating the trend and not search for outliers.

BTW, both those guys shot 3's in college and did not develop their 3 ball in the pros even though people expected it. Everyone could have sworn that Ayton could shoot the 3, can't do it in the pros. Same with Bagley.

 

[Bodhi]

Your list was In no way the same as his and if you genuinely don’t know why then that’s where the argument should start and end.

 

[Elizah Huge]

It's a stupid argument, but it is the same argument you just used. I can pick any draft and name a bunch of players that didn't improve their 3FG% in the pros. Must be true because I have a list right? Yeah...it's ****ing stupid. It's almost like you have to evaluate a trend by evaluating the trend and not search for outliers.

BTW, both those guys shot 3's in college and did not develop their 3 ball in the pros even though people expected it. Everyone could have sworn that Ayton could shoot the 3, can't do it in the pros. Same with Bagley.

Like @Bodhi just said it sounds it’s hard to project how players with extremely small sample sizes will shoot the 3 in the NBA. Also, freshman with small sample sizes is even harder. You should almost just throw that number out for freshman because in the majority of cases it’s meaningless.

Also, please stop being disingenuous. Ayton shot 35 threes total and Bagley 58 threes total. Nobody was swearing that Ayton could shoot the 3 with 35 total threes attempted. Might as well throw out Kessler’s 3PT% in college while we’re at it.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The other difference is that I'm not going around guaranteeing that Clowney is going to be a three point shooter.

It's one thing to believe in a guy and think he will be the exception, it's another to act like it's not an exception that someone who sucks at shooting 3's at college will become good at it in the NBA. Flip's percentage isn't just bad, it's very bad and even lower than the "low 30's" mark being brought up multiple times. He's not even at low 30's! You seem to think that the fact that some guys did it automatically means Flip will. It's not impossible, it would just be exceptional for him to improve that much. I'm not saying it's impossible, but the confidence that people speak about his jump shot is kinda crazy.

It's also not the only concern with Flip. He has the worst percentage at the rim of any big man prospect, and it's not by a little it's by a lot. If it weren't for GG, he'd really be on his own island as everyone is like 10%+ better than him. I can already see the "bad spacing" comments. He's not the only big that plays with poor spacing. Two most important areas on the court for him and he was really bad at both.

It's funny because I think I was one of the first people who respond to @Handlogten's Heros saying that I like Flip..He's got an interesting mix of skills and size for sure...but it became clear that people like him MUCH more and too the point where they don't see being awful at the rim and awful behind the three point line as red flags.

You can moan and groan all you want my man. Of course Filipowski has things to be concerned about. I just don't think that 3pt shooting is one of them.

Of course the dude has some roughs games and efficiency wasn't always there, but the guy was putting his team in position to win games as a Freshman on Duke as the focal point if the offense. His tasks were just harder than most other freshman.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Flip scored over 1/3rd of Duke's total points in a victory over Virginia in the ACC title game. That's how much Duke relied on him.

 

[KqWIN]

Like @Bodhi just said it sounds it’s hard to project how players with extremely small sample sizes will shoot the 3 in the NBA. Also, freshman with small sample sizes is even harder. You should almost just throw that number out for freshman because in the majority of cases it’s meaningless.

Also, please stop being disingenuous. Ayton shot 35 threes total and Bagley 58 threes total. Nobody was swearing that Ayton could shoot the 3 with 35 total threes attempted. Might as well throw out Kessler’s 3PT% in college while we’re at it.

Oh please, everyone was hoping that Ayton could extend his range from college. He never did. I'm not even going to waste my time with this, this isn't what I'm arguing. Point is, if all you do is look for anecdotes to justify your opinion you will find them. What's actually ingenious is listing out Cody Kispert after he hit 44% from 3 two years in a row at Gonzaga lol. It was obvious you were picking and choosing which stats to show haha.

If you're going to throw out 3FG, go ahead stand by it. Tell me it doesn't matter for the majority of freshmen. Does it matter that Dick shoots 40%? Dariq 43%? Are all these just meaningless numbers? If that's you're thing say it with your chest. To me, this stuff matters. It's not gospel, but not something you throw in the trash can.

 

[Bodhi]

Oh please, everyone was hoping that Ayton could extend his range from college. He never did. I'm not even going to waste my time with this, this isn't what I'm arguing. Point is, if all you do is look for anecdotes to justify your opinion you will find them. What's actually ingenious is listing out Cody Kispert after he hit 44% from 3 two years in a row at Gonzaga lol. It was obvious you were picking and choosing which stats to show haha.

If you're going to stand by throwing out 3FG, go ahead stand by it. Tell me it doesn't matter for the majority of freshmen. Does it matter that Dick shoots 40%? Dariq 43%? Are all these just meaningless numbers? If that's you're thing say it with your chest. To me, this stuff matters. It's not gospel, but not something you throw in the trash can.

This is getting weird