Fair enough I thought the rest of the context in that post made it obvious. And I wasn’t asking for an actual answer just posting some thoughts.
I do find it weird to post pre draft public consensus as any kind of evidence of anything when that evidence is directly contradicted by what actually happened. So we are both a bit confused.
The odds I posted were evidence of public consensus (which again is not mutually exclusive from non public opinion). I did not know you were talking about things that we do not know and cannot know. And again, it was my mistake, but I assumed what assumed because the other path is a useless talking point.