2024-2025 Tank Race

[Handlogten's Heros]

And between which two picks is that threshold? 3 & 4?

Likely 2 and 3 but if the Spurs/Rockets get #1 it will be between 1 and 2.

 

[framer]

This is true from a logical standpoint. But the real variable that changes the outcome is if we're part of the equation, as it doesn't involve mathematical models. When there's a three-way tie, a coin is flipped and it's ours if it lands on the edge. So whether the three teams with worst records have the best odds or whether some other draft position is "due" for the first pick really depends on which position the Jazz are in. The part of the algorithm that says "is the team the Jazz?" and the answer is no then points to an increased probability.

Of course, the laws of probability are completely voided whenever the Jazz are involved in a lottery positioning coinflip. Probably best to avoid one of those. . .

 

[idiot]

I understand that each draft is an independent event, but if I had to bet I would say that the number one pick will go to the 1st, 4th, 5th, or 6th worst teams. The combined odds for those teams to win it is almost 50%, but none of those records have won in the 6 year history.

Maybe we can go on a long winning streak to finish 6th and then get the first pick. If nothing else, it would be quite entertaining to see all the see all the switching emotions in the fanbase.

 

[underdog]

Would be very content with 2. LFG Hornets and Pelicans.

(It also seems like teams with the worst record get smitten by the basketball gods)

Yeah, I’d be happy with the 2nd worst record as well. But obviously I’d prefer the worst record. I mean, we’re in the tanking business. Might as well try to ensure we don't end up with a worse pick than fifth. 17 games left. It’s a four-horse race now. The lottery night will be nerve-racking as hell.

 

[default]

Watch the NBA try to help the Mavs jump from 14 to 1 in the lottery after doing LeBron and the Lakers a solid at the trade deadline.

 

[NUMBERICA]

This is gonna sound crazy but I think I might prefer the Clippers winning over the Pelicans tonight.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

This is gonna sound crazy but I think I might prefer the Clippers winning over the Pelicans tonight.

Is this the classic Numb reverse jinx or a sincere statement?

 

[NUMBERICA]

Is this the classic Numb reverse jinx or a sincere statement?

Sincere. I want Minnesota at the 9th seed real bad.

 

[FalseFlagg K]

Of course, the laws of probability are completely voided whenever the Jazz are involved in a lottery positioning coinflip. Probably best to avoid one of those. . .

mate all this means is that the law of averages is overwhelmingly with us. Fear not, we are going to win the lottery on May 12th. I will be burning one of my daughters alive at the stake the day before as a sacrifice to the lord of light to secure the proper result.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Sincere. I want Minnesota at the 9th seed real bad.

Minnesota has the 4th easiest schedule and Sacramento has the 2nd most difficult remaining schedule + 3 games to makeup, it's going to be tough.

If Utah plays them straight (I think they will), then that increases the difficulty of their strength of schedule, so that's at least something. Although if Utah is going to win those two games you probably want NOP to win to give us some more cushion.

Sorry, I'm obviously giving this too much thought.

 

[Jaanipoeg]

This is gonna sound crazy but I think I might prefer the Clippers winning over the Pelicans tonight.

Definitely not bad either way, but I don't have any faith in the Kings making up 3 games to push them down to 9th sadly.

Legitimately frustrating that Mavs/Suns **** the bed so historically this year

 

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

Cruel irony would be that we tank aggressively to get the best lottery odds but a team with worse odds ends up winning. We'll be wishing we had tried to win more games if this happens. The odds of not winning the lottery significantly exceed those of winning. I confidently predict that we WILL NOT win the lottery and WILL NOT draft Cooper Flagg. Anyone who understands odds would take that bet any day; yet, our strategy for team building hinges crucially on this low probability outcome.