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2024-2025 Tank Race

infection said:
And still a 47.9% chance of that happening, as presently constituted.
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There is 100% chance of me putting a hole in the wall with my head. Either because I am jacked and pumped or angry and violent.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
The worst team in the league should win the lottery on average once every 7 years, same for the second and third worst teams. One of the bottom 3 teams should win the lottery on average every other year to every 3 years.

This will be the 7th year since the flattened odds and so far the worst team has not won it, ever. The second worst team has won the lottery 3 times already and once a team tied for the 2nd/3rd worst record won it. There have only been two non bottom 3 teams to win, #10 last year and the Pelicans who were in a 3 way tie for 7,8,9.

You might say that the worst team is due to win, but also teams 4-6 have never won even though they should win once every 3 years. The second worst team could not win again for 20 years and still maintain expected odds.
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The lottery would be so much better if there was some kind of roll over odds from previous years. It would even out the luck and work against acute tanking efforts.
 
I understand that each draft is an independent event, but if I had to bet I would say that the number one pick will go to the 1st, 4th, 5th, or 6th worst teams. The combined odds for those teams to win it is almost 50%, but none of those records have won in the 6 year history.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I understand that each draft is an independent event, but if I had to bet I would say that the number one pick will go to the 1st, 4th, 5th, or 6th worst teams. The combined odds for those teams to win it is almost 50%, but none of those records have won in the 6 year history.
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Lol I feel like #3 is going to get it.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I understand that each draft is an independent event, but if I had to bet I would say that the number one pick will go to the 1st, 4th, 5th, or 6th worst teams. The combined odds for those teams to win it is almost 50%, but none of those records have won in the 6 year history.
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If you flip a coin 10 times and the first 9 are heads the odds of the 10th flip being heads is still 50/50. The odds only matter before you start flipping the coin the first time.

What we need is possible picks 6 and 7 to start showing out more. . .
 
framer said:
If you flip a coin 10 times and the first 9 are heads the odds of the 10th flip being heads is still 50/50. The odds only matter before you start flipping the coin the first time.

What we need is possible picks 6 and 7 to start showing out more. . .
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This is true from a logical standpoint. But the real variable that changes the outcome is if we're part of the equation, as it doesn't involve mathematical models. When there's a three-way tie, a coin is flipped and it's ours if it lands on the edge. So whether the three teams with worst records have the best odds or whether some other draft position is "due" for the first pick really depends on which position the Jazz are in. The part of the algorithm that says "is the team the Jazz?" and the answer is no then points to an increased probability.
 
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