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2024-2025 Tank Race

rippimpc said:
It would be interesting to see someone do a statistical analysis of some sort on how the lottery has panned out over the years. Wonder if there’s a way to show if there’s a true random statistical distribution or if there’s evidence that thumbs have tipped the scales at times.
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As others have rightly pointed out, there's way, way, way too little data in the 5 years since the lottery odds changed to do this. Even with the older odds, still far too little data to make any kind of judgment.
 
I have felt all season that the 3rd worst record will win the lottery.
But I'm not superstitious and know that my feeling is irrelevant and dumb.

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infection said:
The sample sizes are too small (you’re looking at a sample of ~30). But it’s also complicated because it can’t take into effect lots and lots of noisy data. I’m going to make a larger post about this later. I think too often people have a very all-or-nothing view of this, like the league is sitting in Secaucus planning every point of every game. It’s don’t believe anything is tightly controlled, but there are things that can have varying level of influence. I believe there are certain outcomes that can be problematic, and the league can pull certain levers to prevent, or at least reduce risk of, certain outcomes. Thus think the false dichotomy of “if there’s not evidence that every single thing is rigged in its entirety, then no undue influence happens anywhere” is a bit of a straw man and silly.
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Thanks. This reminds me of Magnus Carlsen saying cheating in chess is undetectable if someone only cheats at pivotal moments.
 
infection said:
The sample sizes are too small (you’re looking at a sample of ~30). But it’s also complicated because it can’t take into effect lots and lots of noisy data. I’m going to make a larger post about this later. I think too often people have a very all-or-nothing view of this, like the league is sitting in Secaucus planning every point of every game. It’s don’t believe anything is tightly controlled, but there are things that can have varying level of influence. I believe there are certain outcomes that can be problematic, and the league can pull certain levers to prevent, or at least reduce risk of, certain outcomes. Thus think the false dichotomy of “if there’s not evidence that every single thing is rigged in its entirety, then no undue influence happens anywhere” is a bit of a straw man and silly.
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Those of us old enough all watched the league step in to hand that Kings-Lakers series to LA. It was easy to see the thumb, foot, and a 18 pound sledgehammer on the scale for that one. It is also statistically improbable that the Jazz lose nearly every draft related coinflip that we have ever participated in. I'm not sure how those are witnessed and verified though. . .
 
Updated the OP.

- Elite tanking stretch from Utah.
- Miami crashing in to the bottom 10 of the league
- The Phili/Brooklyn tank off will be fascinating
- It will be interesting to see how Washington approaches the rest of the season (They are 5-5 in their last 10)
 
rippimpc said:
Thanks. This reminds me of Magnus Carlsen saying cheating in chess is undetectable if someone only cheats at pivotal moments.
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If we could transport players from different eras to play each other, I’d love to see Carlsen against Tigran Petrosian.
 
fishonjazz said:
I have felt all season that the 3rd worst record will win the lottery.
But I'm not superstitious and know that my feeling is irrelevant and dumb.

Sent from my OPD2203 using Tapatalk
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Same here. We dropped 2 spots last year and I feel we deserve to win those back this year, so getting 3rd worst would be our spot to be. Also not (very) superstitious though, just a little stitious (thanks Michael Scott).
 
Udidthizz said:
Same here. We dropped 2 spots last year and I feel we deserve to win those back this year, so getting 3rd worst would be our spot to be. Also not (very) superstitious though, just a little stitious (thanks Michael Scott).
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Michael Scott is the GOAT
I used the Michael Scott "Noooooo" meme (from when he saw Toby was back) just today when I texted my wife and told her I forgot to bring the giardiniera to work today to put on my cheese steak.
 
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