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2024-2025 Tank Race

SoberasHotRod said:
OK, I disagree, but not that big of a deal.

I think Harper is a significantly better prospect than the others, so getting top two is pretty important to me. I also think there is a significant drop off after 6, so securing top 6 is a big deal to me. Those are bigger deals for winning the tank race than 3.5% better odds at Flagg.

IF Flagg was the only player I thought was worth getting in this draft it would be hard to stomach watching 20 more games of horrible basketball and then having to endure the off season, for 3.5% better odds of something good happening.
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Question (might seem dumb but I legit don't know the answer):
If we finish with the 5th worst record do we have worse odds or the same odds to get the #2 pick and Harper vs finishing with the 3rd worst record?
 
For all the hand wringing about how poor the odds are (including from myself), having even a 10% chance at Flagg is absolutely worth abandoning the half tank and if the guys next year are as good it will be worth it again. I am so happy we're here instead of hovering again and we should thank the gods DA failed at his Bridges+George swoop.
 
KqWIN said:
For all the hand wringing about how poor the odds are (including from myself), having even a 10% chance at Flagg is absolutely worth abandoning the half tank and if the guys next year are as good it will be worth it again. I am so happy we're here instead of hovering again and we should thank the gods DA failed at his Bridges+George swoop.
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No doubt.
Imagine being a suns fan right now lol. Holy **** that would suck way worse than tanking for a small shot at Flagg
 
fishonjazz said:
Question (might seem dumb but I legit don't know the answer):
If we finish with the 5th worst record do we have worse odds or the same odds to get the #2 pick and Harper vs finishing with the 3rd worst record?
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Here you go:

www.tankathon.com

2026 NBA Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

Detailed 2026 NBA lottery odds. View the current odds for each lottery spot to get specific picks. See the chances that a pick is traded based on position.
www.tankathon.com www.tankathon.com
 
KqWIN said:
For all the hand wringing about how poor the odds are (including from myself), having even a 10% chance at Flagg is absolutely worth abandoning the half tank and if the guys next year are as good it will be worth it again. I am so happy we're here instead of hovering again and we should thank the gods DA failed at his Bridges+George swoop.
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Here here
 
fishonjazz said:
Question (might seem dumb but I legit don't know the answer):
If we finish with the 5th worst record do we have worse odds or the same odds to get the #2 pick and Harper vs finishing with the 3rd worst record?
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Same odds. Lottery odds are flat for the teams with the three worst records, but they would stay in the same relative order if nobody hits on the lottery of the three.
 
fishonjazz said:
No doubt.
Imagine being a suns fan right now lol. Holy **** that would suck way worse than tanking for a small shot at Flagg
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I never want to be in that position. This is something that I don’t think anti-tankers ever weigh in the debate: that acting in desperation to achieve mediocrity or worse is far, far worse. That was what the last year of Mitchell/Gobert/Quin started to feel like and it was my least-favorite season by a wide margin.
 
What sucks is that the Mavs dont play the Hornets/Wizards/Pelicans at all anymore, so we cant even benefit from the Mavs losing to our main tank competitors.
 
fishonjazz said:
Seems like you would care more since you have a better chance at Cooper and Harper by being 3rd worst vs 5th worst.
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Yeah, I do care. You must not have understood my post.

I think getting the 2nd worst record is important because you have the best odds at Flagg AND Harper AND are guaranteed a top 6 pick.

IF I was only concerned about getting Flagg and didn't care about the other things then the difference between ending up as the 2nd worst team or 5th worst team would not be a big enough motivator to not watch good basketball for the rest of the season.
 
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