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2024-25 Schedule Released

KqWIN said:
From a first scan, I think the first part of the schedule is fairly difficult. Spurs at home we will probably be favored, but that might be it. When we do play the bad teams, it's all on the road. We don't play a bad team at home until January.
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Split the spurs games. Win at least one we shouldn't. Beat Chicago on the road? Portland on the road? Start somewhere between 5-18 and 7-16? Then we can start to get grimy or manage injuries. 20 games in is a good mark to tell the vets "sorry you will be sitting until the trade deadline as we are developing right now" TIA.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Split the spurs games. Win at least one we shouldn't. Beat Chicago on the road? Portland on the road? Start somewhere between 5-18 and 7-16? Then we can start to get grimy or manage injuries. 20 games in is a good mark to tell the vets "sorry you will be sitting until the trade deadline as we are developing right now" TIA.
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Sounds about right. Honestly, the Spurs probably see us as food and having us 4x times on the schedule so early could mean they are a frisky team instead of being an unexpected tanker. They'll pay us 4 times and have 11 total home games in their first 18. POR and WAS are also in their first 18.

I don't think Will Hardy is going to work some magic to save the season if we start out slow once again. Instead of leaning on Dunn and Simone to make things gel, he's way more likely to go to young players and work with them through it. The vibes are way different this year.

One thing I hadn't considered about the early season is that with the NBA cup the conferences kind of have to play each other at the beginning. Somebody has to win when an east team plays another east team. The early season is extra conference heavy bc you've got to get the cup games in.
 
KqWIN said:
From a first scan, I think the first part of the schedule is fairly difficult. Spurs at home we will probably be favored, but that might be it. When we do play the bad teams, it's all on the road. We don't play a bad team at home until January.
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Jack Nicholson nodding intensely gif goes here

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Handlogten's Heros said:
Split the spurs games. Win at least one we shouldn't. Beat Chicago on the road? Portland on the road? Start somewhere between 5-18 and 7-16? Then we can start to get grimy or manage injuries. 20 games in is a good mark to tell the vets "sorry you will be sitting until the trade deadline as we are developing right now" TIA.
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You can't sit out vets without actual injuries that early, they have their own goals too. This is not a make a wish foundation for HC tankers.
 
Four of the first five games are winnable. At home and to start the season winning has a lot to do with effort. I think we get 3 of those and people start freaking out. Then November is rough, so we are probably going to lose a lot of games and lose confidence. However we have 4 of 10 games in December against bad teams. Then January is a mix of good and bad teams. If we gain some momentum in December I can see us winning a couple that we shouldn't.

I have us at 18-30 at the trade deadline. We make a couple of tank trades at the deadline, sit Lauri and Kessler for a bunch of games and finish 7-27 for a final record of 25-57. That's probably good enough for 5th best lottery odds.
 
The Jazz come to Indiana on April 4th. On the plus side it's on a Friday night, so it's going to be super easy to go to that game. On the negative the Jazz will be in desperation tank mode so I'll be expecting heavy minutes from our two way guys at that point.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I have us at 18-30 at the trade deadline. We make a couple of tank trades at the deadline, sit Lauri and Kessler for a bunch of games and finish 7-27 for a final record of 25-57. That's probably good enough for 5th best lottery odds.
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Last season 25 wins resulted in the 6th and 7th best lottery odds. That was in a year of a bad draft. This year's draft is projected to be one of the best: 25 wins can easily be a ticket to the 9th best odds.
 
jazznik said:
Last season 25 wins resulted in the 6th and 7th best lottery odds. That was in a year of a bad draft. This year's draft is projected to be one of the best: 25 wins can easily be a ticket to the 9th best odds.
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That's not really how it works. The more teams that are tanking, the more wins are possible for the bad teams. In the Wemby draft, for example, 25 wins would have been the 4th best odds.

25 wins could certainly give us worse than 5th best odds, but I'm not sure there has ever been a draft where it resulted in the 9th best odds or worse.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
That's not really how it works. The more teams that are tanking, the more wins are possible for the bad teams. In the Wemby draft, for example, 25 wins would have been the 4th best odds.

25 wins could certainly give us worse than 5th best odds, but I'm not sure there has ever been a draft where it resulted in the 9th best odds or worse.
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25 wins leading to 9th best lottery odds has never happened (except for shortened seasons). Like you said, there also doesn't seem to be a correlation between draft strength and wins....adding to your Wemby draft example, the last draft that had this amount of hype was probably the 2014 draft. 25 wins would have also gotten you tied for 4th.

Having said that, I don't actually think the number of teams hardcore tanking is abnormally high or anything this year. In the West, it's really just us and Portland. In the East, many of these teams that are expected to be very bad might be in the play in race and they will have to play each other. I think what we will see are teams who you would expect to be in the playoff race quit early and become tankers.
 
KqWIN said:
25 wins leading to 9th best lottery odds has never happened (except for shortened seasons). Like you said, there also doesn't seem to be a correlation between draft strength and wins....adding to your Wemby draft example, the last draft that had this amount of hype was probably the 2014 draft. 25 wins would have also gotten you tied for 4th.

Having said that, I don't actually think the number of teams hardcore tanking is abnormally high or anything this year. In the West, it's really just us and Portland. In the East, many of these teams that are expected to be very bad might be in the play in race and they will have to play each other. I think what we will see are teams who you would expect to be in the playoff race quit early and become tankers.
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I expect Charlotte to tank. They should anyway. They still dont have The Guy on that roster imo.

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I think this schedule is favourable to the tanking but its not really about the start. I think the first 9 games arent as tough as you'd hope.

However our first 46 games include just 20 home games vs 26 road games and after that the shenanigans may be in use to ruin the backend of it, which also contains our two longest home stretches of 6 and 8 (both coming post trade DL).
 
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