2024 NBA Draft Mega Thread

[KqWIN]

The hedge matters. That's why hedges exist is to protect the value of a bigger asset against an unlikely event that may cause it to lose value. You are a GM trading for that pick and then it hits top 4 you feel real dumb... you don't think a GM acquiring that is going to think about that? Also the hedge would figure into the expected value.

You are going to feel dumb trading for any protected pick if it doesn’t convey. The Jazz traded for a pick knowing it may not convey (or it will be converted in this case). The chances a pick does not convey is reflected in the value in that pick.

It does not matter if you own 5-30, chances at top 4 are exactly the same.

 

[Elizah Huge]

If it’s 2027:

Lakers are at 4 and Clippers are at 3 pre-lottery.

I would rather have the Lakers at 4 unprotected than just the Clippers 1-4 if it meant I lose the Clippers pick if it lands 5-8.

I think that’s the best example I can give you to why it matters more to us than anyone else.

 

[KqWIN]

The cost for the Lakers 1-4 for us would be lower than an unprotected first from anyone else you think is similar value. For being so smart of a guy I’m not sure how you’re whiffing this badly on this one.

Uhh…what? No we do not get a discount because we own the rest of the picks.

It will not cost less for us. If the Lakers are selling 1-4 for $10. They do not care that the Jazz own 5-30. They will not sell it to us for $9 if another team wants if for $10.

I will put it as simply as I can. If you think the Lakers top 4 is more valuable to us because we own 5-30 then you must also say that you would be willing to accept worse odds from another team who we don’t own 5-30. That’s it.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Uhh…what? No we do not get a discount because we own the rest of the picks.

It will not cost less for us. If the Lakers are selling 1-4 for $10. They do not care that the Jazz own 5-30. They will not sell it to us for $9 if another team wants if for $10.

I will put it as simply as I can. If you think the Lakers top 4 is more valuable to us because we own 5-30 then you must also say that you would be willing to accept worse odds from another team who we don’t own 5-30. That’s it.

You didn’t read what I said at all. The cost for the Lakers 1-4 is lower than the Clippers unprotected.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You are going to feel dumb trading for any protected pick if it doesn’t convey. The Jazz traded for a pick knowing it may not convey (or it will be converted in this case). The chances a pick does not convey is reflected in the value in that pick.

It does not matter if you own 5-30, chances at top 4 are exactly the same.

Yes and companies and GMs value security and safety... so having the hedge of the asset you are protecting is better than having another random hedge. Ethanol companies buy corn hedges not steel hedges even if the indicators seem to think the steel hedge is a better value. Its the same principle. There is a lot of uncertainty between now and 2027 so if I trade the Lakers pick that could be 5-44 and say Miami's 2027 pick but only 1-4 its not the same as being able to trade the lakers pick 1-30.

There is emotion there as well as math.

 

[KqWIN]

If it’s 2027:

Lakers are at 4 and Clippers are at 3 pre-lottery.

I would rather have the Lakers at 4 unprotected than just the Clippers 1-4 if it meant I lose the Clippers pick if it lands 5-8.

I think that’s the best example I can give you to why it matters more to us than anyone else.

Well there you go, you have demonstrated that you are willing to take worse odds. For what benefit? I’m not sure. But if you want the worse odds we’ll agree to disagree. I want the better odds.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Well there you go, you have demonstrated that you are willing to take worse odds. For what benefit? I’m not sure. But if you want the worse odds we’ll agree to disagree. I want the better odds.

The benefit of actually keeping the pick? Lmao dude you’re making no ****ing sense.

 

[KqWIN]

Yes and companies and GMs value security and safety... so having the hedge of the asset you are protecting is better than having another random hedge. Ethanol companies buy corn hedges not steel hedges even if the indicators seem to think the steel hedge is a better value. Its the same principle. There is a lot of uncertainty between now and 2027 so if I trade the Lakers pick that could be 5-44 and say Miami's 2027 pick but only 1-4 its not the same as being able to trade the lakers pick 1-30.

There is emotion there as well as math.

Meh…I think this is the same as other protected picks. I don’t think top X has special value to the team that holds the other outcomes and vice versa. We’ll just have to agree to disagree.

Anyways, as far as Bronny goes….I am 99% confident this is about the Jazz giving Bronny a workout, as they do with many prospects every year (from top prospects to overseas prospects) and the media running with it. Occam’s razor. They right a story about Bronny if he wipes his nose so if he gets any traction from any team the media will run with it.

 

[KqWIN]

The benefit of actually keeping the pick? Lmao dude you’re making no ****ing sense.

Your odds and expects outcome are better with the Clippers picks in your scenario. If that’s what you want, that’s what you want.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Your odds and expects outcome are better with the Clippers picks in your scenario. If that’s what you want, that’s what you want.

How do you figure that at all?

The difference between 3 and 4 in the lottery to get top-4 does not outweigh the % that 3 falls to 5-8 at all. Not even close.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Meh…I think this is the same as other protected picks. I don’t think top X has special value to the team that holds the other outcomes and vice versa. We’ll just have to agree to disagree.

Anyways, as far as Bronny goes….I am 99% confident this is about the Jazz giving Bronny a workout, as they do with many prospects every year (from top prospects to overseas prospects) and the media running with it. Occam’s razor. They right a story about Bronny if he wipes his nose so if he gets any traction from any team the media will run with it.

Huh... do you think the value of an unprotected pick is the same as a protected pick? Because when you acquire the hedge it is unprotected and is absolutely without a doubt more valuable. I am fine disagreeing but this type of risk mitigation is a pretty basic part of life and business.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

There is no downside to showing interest in Bronny. So whatevs... But I also wouldn't put it past Danny to exaggerate interest for some purpose. Whether its trying to get the pick protections eliminated or some other purpose.

Maybe they are generally interested but you don't want to telegraph that interest if so.