Goals should be realistic. Getting as low as 3rd or 4th would require 18-19 wins total. Do you think the Jazz can somehow post a 4-38 record going forward? Don't forget that they are many games against teams like Washington and Brooklyn who would not allow the Jazz to outtank them without a fight. You are talking about playing at the historically bad level, rivaling the pace of the worst-ever NBA teams.
2025-2026 Tank Race Prediction Contest and Current Results Thread
- Thread starter SoberasHotRod
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framer
Well-Known Member
I honestly believe that the calculus of what we are doing would be different if we still had a healthy Walker Kessler. We could have easily competed for a playoff spot and handed OKC a non-lottery pick. We couldn't have gotten grimy enough with a healthy Kessler.
Without Kessler, we probably aren't good enough to make the playoffs, even if we played unfettered. We would probably be in that 8-10 range. In every instance that I have ever seen in the NBA, a team on the edge with a protected pick will slide underneath that level. Every single time.
I don't think there actually is a huge narrative that the Jazz are the worst tankers, outside of OKC fans, which are made up entirely of band waggoners who are the fans most likely to post on general NBA boards. Anyone who was a true OKC fan, knows what they did and that they have no room to criticize.
Without Kessler, we probably aren't good enough to make the playoffs, even if we played unfettered. We would probably be in that 8-10 range. In every instance that I have ever seen in the NBA, a team on the edge with a protected pick will slide underneath that level. Every single time.
I don't think there actually is a huge narrative that the Jazz are the worst tankers, outside of OKC fans, which are made up entirely of band waggoners who are the fans most likely to post on general NBA boards. Anyone who was a true OKC fan, knows what they did and that they have no room to criticize.
That seems like a lot of unnecessary prognostication. The Jazz are two wins ahead of 4th and four wins ahead of 3rd. Seems feasible but will probably require unrelenting griminess.
I think "sub-20 win" train passed us by when we won the b2b against Spurs and Pistons. After those games we were 12-19 so we had 51 games left with 12 wins already in the books.
However I'm not sure what you base 18-19 wins on? Last 3 seasons there has been 1 (2022-23), 2 (2023-24) and 3 (2024-25) sub 20 win teams and 4th lowest win total in the last 10 years (counting back) has been: 21, 21, 27, 24, 22, 20, 22, 24, 28, 23
We got three games head-to-head vs New Orleans, two with the Kings, two with the Wizards, one with the Nets, and one with the Pacers.
Getting to 3rd or 4th is not impossible if we can nail the tank battles, the power of which we’ve seen on full display this week.
We have got to dispense with this Lauri playing 38 minutes ********, in any event.
Based on how people feel about the Jazz catching the teams below us, 3 games is impossible to make up between now and the end of the season so the Jazz are safe at 6
Pacers going to beat the Sixers today. Book it
fishonjazz
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Good post
Jazz are really only looking at two potential scenarios:
A) The league moves the Jazz up in the lotto and we draft top-4.
B) The league doesn't move the Jazz up in the lotto and we draft at #6 or #7.
If the Jazz finish in the bottom 4, I would expect a couple teams to leapfrog the Jazz in the draft order, pushing us back to #6.
If the Jazz finish with the 5th or 6th worst record, I would expect at least one team still jumps the Jazz and we draft #6 or #7.
So unless luck is on our side, we're looking at drafting with the top 4 guys and probably Flemings off the board. Maybe there's a small chance that someone drafting 4th wants a PG, likes Flemings, and Wilson gets pushed to #5. Maybe there's some chance that the Jazz could trade up to #5. But we may need to assume we have #6 or #7.
A) The league moves the Jazz up in the lotto and we draft top-4.
B) The league doesn't move the Jazz up in the lotto and we draft at #6 or #7.
If the Jazz finish in the bottom 4, I would expect a couple teams to leapfrog the Jazz in the draft order, pushing us back to #6.
If the Jazz finish with the 5th or 6th worst record, I would expect at least one team still jumps the Jazz and we draft #6 or #7.
So unless luck is on our side, we're looking at drafting with the top 4 guys and probably Flemings off the board. Maybe there's a small chance that someone drafting 4th wants a PG, likes Flemings, and Wilson gets pushed to #5. Maybe there's some chance that the Jazz could trade up to #5. But we may need to assume we have #6 or #7.
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With the flattened odds, I actually think we’re in a great sweet spot. We could always be higher, of course, but realistically how high can you go with Key and Lauri?
All I can ask for is to minimize wins from the non-essential personnel. It took them a bit to get going, and they may have been scared from podcasters, but it was indeed a great week for the tank.
All I can ask for is to minimize wins from the non-essential personnel. It took them a bit to get going, and they may have been scared from podcasters, but it was indeed a great week for the tank.
Seems like the Wizards are participating in rotational tanking vs the Kawhi-less Clippers.
Sarr is a +12 and only has 24 minutes with 9 minutes left. Will he go back in?
Sarr is a +12 and only has 24 minutes with 9 minutes left. Will he go back in?
underdog
Well-Known Member
Tight game. Go Wiz go!