A couple of deffensive shot charts

[stitches]

Yeah...it'd be interesting to see similar shot charts that give standard deviations above/below the expected field goal percentage of the actual players guarded. It's probably also worth mentioning that Millsap's high foul rate helps him here. That is, his aggressive defense makes his defensive FG% look good, but also gives opponents more free throws and limits Millsap's minutes/role.

Yah, true... That's something I've noticed too. He fouls a lot(4.8 per 36, damn that really is a ton), but I'm not sure if most of his fouls are on shots(i.e. resulting in free throws)? The next highest on the Jazz(from regular rotation) are Rodney at 4 per 36(that's a lot too) and Favors at 3.3 per 36. I wonder if some of it is the "rookie treatment" by refs and if we might expect those to drop a bit simply by them becoming more recognizable names in the league and then by some more by them getting experience and learning how to avoid some of those fouls.

How about exum's?

Interestingly enough, Dante and Rodney's defensive shot charts are not as good as we might expect:

Do you see the area around the right elbow for Dante? I think this one is misleading, I remember at least 3 extremely well defended shots, prayers, from opponents there that simply went in... and would probably miss 9/10 times(there was one against the Nuggets, one against Young of the Nets, one banked shot against ... the Kings if I'm not mistaken). Again, as GVC noted - it'd be interesting to see some error bars on those, but I don't think they are available.

Rodney's allowed eFG% is 53%, and Dante's is 52%.

For what is worth, from my searches through the database, it seems like being a great perimeter defender(I kind of hesitate to use that word when it comes to those stats specifically, because it's more a stat about contesting shots than overall defense... maybe perimeter contester would be more appropriate) is harder than being a great defensive big. There are a ton of bad perimeter defenders and not so many bad bigs(I would guess them not having to defend the 3 as much and defending worse 3p shooters has something to do with it).

BTW Trevor Booker comes out as pretty good at contesting shots pretty much everywhere(except corner 3s) on the floor(not only in the restricted area, where his efficiency might be influenced by the presence of Rudy and Favors). His allowed eFG is 45% - again pretty awesome.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Paul was always a post player, Elijah has always been a wing. Big difference there.

Paul isn't and wasn't ever really a post-player.

 

[RandyForRubio]

Paul isn't and wasn't ever really a post-player.

Ok, you're right. What I meant is that he played a position/role where an outside shot isn't vital. Elijah has played on the wing since at least college, I would imagine he's worked on his shot more than Paul at the age of 27.

 

[GVC]

Yah, true... That's something I've noticed too. He fouls a lot(4.8 per 36, damn that really is a ton), but I'm not sure if most of his fouls are on shots(i.e. resulting in free throws)?

Whether on shots or not, they help the opposing team get into the penalty and inflate (deflate?) Millsap's defensive stats. From watching the games, however, he definitely commits some unnecessary fouls. Love his hustle/aggression regardless.

Again, as GVC noted - it'd be interesting to see some error bars on those, but I don't think they are available...For what is worth, from my searches through the database, it seems like being a great perimeter defender(I kind of hesitate to use that word when it comes to those stats specifically, because it's more a stat about contesting shots than overall defense... maybe perimeter contester would be more appropriate) is harder than being a great defensive big. (There are a ton of bad perimeter defenders and not so many bad bigs(I would guess them not having to defend the 3 as much has something to do with it).

Error bars isn't what I meant. The graphs you provided don't have a legend, so I'm not exactly sure what the colors represent. What I'd like to see is graphs that provide a better measure/visualization of how the player ranks relative to other players (by percentile, standard deviations from the mean, whatever), and how that translates to points saved and changes in win percentage (that is, both the relative value and absolute value of the player's defensive contribution). Correcting/controlling for opponent quality would also help.

 

[stitches]

Whether on shots or not, they help the opposing team get into the penalty and inflate (deflate?) Millsap's defensive stats. From watching the games, however, he definitely commits some unnecessary fouls. Love his hustle/aggression regardless.

Error bars isn't what I meant. The graphs you provided don't have a legend, so I'm not exactly sure what the colors represent. What I'd like to see is graphs that provide a better measure/visualization of how the player ranks relative to other players (by percentile, standard deviations from the mean, whatever), and how that translates to points saved and changes in win percentage (that is, both the relative value and absolute value of the player's defensive contribution). Correcting/controlling for opponent quality would also help.

Oh I see, yah, makes sense... Here's the legend about the visualization(they don't have percentile stats and SD and they don't have explanation of how much above and below average each color represents):

 

[GVC]

Oh I see, yah, makes sense... Here's the legend about the visualization(they don't have percentile stats and SD and they don't have explanation of how much above and below average each color represents):

Yikes. That's worse than I thought it would be. All we know is that a player is an unknown amount above or below an unknown measure of "average" against an unknown caliber of opponent. Super useful...

 

[MDAV28]

Elijah reminds me a lot of Tony Allen. To me it seems like a lot of his fouls come from his his refusal to be screened. I think he is an asset as a perimeter defender off the bench, especially if we are to make the playoffs. Until we can find someone who can defend as well as he can and have a better offensive game, I think he should stick around.