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Ace Bailey ROY watch

SoberasHotRod said:
My assumption has always been that FTR increases with experience and it's not something I typically worry about with young players. I tried finding some data online to see if that was true, but couldn't find anything. I went to NBA.com and first looked at the median FTA/100 Possessions (I don't think NBA.com has FTR) per draft year. Here's what I found:
View attachment 20036

So the median free throw rate does appear to increase over time. It looks like there is an increase for the first 5-7 years and then it plateaus. It's possible that this increase is due to players who stick in the league are better at getting to the free throw line so that the median is increased. So I looked at the FTA/100 possessions for the 9 players in the league that were drafted in 2013 and then averaged their free throw rate by years in the league and here is what I found.

View attachment 20039

The same trend continues, so I'm pretty comfortable at saying that free throw rate improves over experience level, but it's also probably true that for the average player it doesn't improve by that much.
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Good stuff
Thanks
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
The lack of FT's would be a massive concern if I felt like he had to be a star. I think he's more of a high level role player, so not super concerned.
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I don’t think any of us were hoping for a role player after tanking like that. It is only natural to put outcomes in context.

I will certainly take a good role player over something worse.
 
KqWIN said:
I would not say my concern is Ace improving his FTr over time. I am confident it will. The concern is more about how about how much it will improve and what that means for his chances of being an efficient player. It’s more about where he’ll end up instead of whether or not it improves.

PS: Just a nitpick, but FTr is probably the better measure here instead of FTA/100.
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FWIW, I wasn't replying to anyone in particular with that post, and it wasn't even necessarily supposed to be Ace specific. I was just challenging my assumptions and seeing if I could find data to support a hypothesis.

Also, I absolutely agree that I would have preferred to use FTR, but I couldn't find it on NBA.com where it is extremely easy to sort by experience/etc.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
My assumption has always been that FTR increases with experience and it's not something I typically worry about with young players. I tried finding some data online to see if that was true, but couldn't find anything. I went to NBA.com and first looked at the median FTA/100 Possessions (I don't think NBA.com has FTR) per draft year. Here's what I found:
View attachment 20036

So the median free throw rate does appear to increase over time. It looks like there is an increase for the first 5-7 years and then it plateaus. It's possible that this increase is due to players who stick in the league are better at getting to the free throw line so that the median is increased. So I looked at the FTA/100 possessions for the 9 players in the league that were drafted in 2013 and then averaged their free throw rate by years in the league and here is what I found.

View attachment 20039

The same trend continues, so I'm pretty comfortable at saying that free throw rate improves over experience level, but it's also probably true that for the average player it doesn't improve by that much.
Click to expand...
Nice work. Props.
 
Elizah Huge said:
What do you mean by nukes the efficiency? 50/37 isn’t bad at all for a rookie.
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I think he is thinking like true shooting or Efg or something. Efficiency that accounts for free throws
 
KqWIN said:
Yeah that’s exactly right. The bar for concern/praise should be different when you have different expectations for players. If Key started playing like a backup PG I’d be concerned. If Collier did the same I’d be pretty excited. That does not mean I think they are the same level of player and directly implies the opposite.
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Lol.

You are talking regress vs progress here. Its not the same discussion as progress vs progress.

If Key improved his rebounding by +1 RPG Id be equally or even more excited than if Collier did that.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
No it doesnt. He has absolutely no earthly idea how to draw contact. He shies away and hides his body. We are talking about an all-time bad FTR for the amount of shots he takes.
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This is a dumb thing to focus on since he is a 19yr old kid who lacks strength. Give him a couple offseasons to focus on getting stronger before being concerned about his free throw rate.
 
Elizah Huge said:
What do you mean by nukes the efficiency? 50/37 isn’t bad at all for a rookie.
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Getting to the line is the S-tier way to (efficiently) score points. Stars basically have to get to the line.

To Cy’s point, if you’re fine settling for a role player then that’s just fine. I’m not really fine with that.

He might change this factor and I certainly hope he does. But he’s currently outlier bad at getting to the line, even among his peers as jazznik noted.

It is a bit concerning (if it is important to a person that he be something more than a role player).
 
NUMBERICA said:
Getting to the line is the S-tier way to (efficiently) score points. Stars basically have to get to the line.

To Cy’s point, if you’re fine settling for a role player then that’s just fine. I’m not really fine with that.

He might change this factor and I certainly hope he does. But he’s currently outlier bad at getting to the line, even among his peers as jazznik noted.

It is a bit concerning (if it is important to a person that he be something more than a role player).
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I have higher hopes than that for him. I would say that should be his floor.
 
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