Al/Paul Lineups since 2010/11
- Thread starter GVC
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GVC
Well-Known Member
1. I still think the Jazz would be better next season with Millsap starting.
2. There have been more expensive 6th men. If he's still getting 28+ minutes per game, I don't see why it would be a problem.
underKANTER
Well-Known Member
I agree. But there are only a handfull of players who, in Millsap's similar position, accept or accepted a role off the bench.
Manu Ginobili, Jason Terry, Jamal Crawford and I can't think of many others, maybe James Harden in the past.
A player of Millsap's caliber has good reasons to only sign with a team that pays him big money and is willing to start him.
Btw, I expect the Jazz to resign Jefferson even if I'm all for resigning Millsap for the right price.
GVC
Well-Known Member
What are those reasons?
underKANTER
Well-Known Member
I think he has proved enough to be considered a starting player in this league.
If you look at what kind of money Power Forwards demand in this league, he for sure will get a big contract.
Millsap might and should only accept a sixth man role for a contending team which the Jazz won't be in the next two years.
He for sure will start if he resigns with the Jazz. We know the coaching stuff's and front office's philosophy: I saw Borchardt, McLeod and Palacio type of players start in front of Okur and D-Will (two All-Stars) on this team.
GVC
Well-Known Member
None of these are reasons why he wouldn't accept a role off the bench IF he were still getting 28+ minutes and closing games.
green
Well-Known Member
My only argument against this, is that you can't play Favors and Jefferson together. Defensively they are beyond terrible. I think Favors is a better defender than Kanter, and while Kanter is much better offensively, I think he is still a little too young to get starting minutes.
I would start Millsap and Favors, and have Kanter be the first big off the bench. Use Al only when needed.
I'm talking about next year under the assumption that the Jazz re-sign Sap and let Jeffy walk. As for this year, I'd like to see Jefferson and Favors play more together and more Sap/Kanter combos. Jefferson shouldn't be playing as much as he is for a couple reasons...he isn't playing efficiently and dude isn't exactly a physical specimen so I imagine he gets tired out there as all big boys do.
Why do you say Favors is beyond terrible defensively, though? Or did you type the wrong name?
green
Well-Known Member
I meant to say Favors and Al together is a terrible defensive combination. Favors is dominate near the hoop, but when Al is on the floor, Favors has to go away from the hoop and he doesn't defend well out there at all.
We have to keep Al near the hoop to hide him (but teams know this and attack the rim when he is out there).
I just think Al should stop playing all together. I think we are a better team without Al.
GVC
Well-Known Member
per NBA.com, Jazz lineups featuring Al and Favors give up 111.8 points per 100 possessions. The worst defensive team in the league by this measure is the Sacramento Kings, giving up 107.7 points per 100 possessions.
Lineups featuring Millsap and Favors give up 101.1 points per 100 possessions, which is the same amount given up by the Bucks, the 8th best defense in the league.
QuinSnydersHair
Well-Known Member
Yeah, because Sloan was always the man at making the tough decisions over the last five years or so of his career.
Lion's Roar
Active Member
Carl Landry is being paid $4M. David West got a 2 year $20M contract, Illiasova and Anderson got contracts at $8M a year. Chris Kaman $8M one year. Yet ppl think it's a good idea to pay Millsap $12M a year for 4 years. Really?
Sometimes when I get mad at the FO I just remind myself what would be if the fans were running the team.
Sometimes when I get mad at the FO I just remind myself what would be if the fans were running the team.
GVC
Well-Known Member
Millsap is better than all those players except maybe David West, who signed with Indiana after tearing his ACL at 30. I'd be worried about giving Millsap anything above $10mm per year, but if you frontload a deal and include a 15% signing bonus, he'll probably be productive enough over the next few years to move if/when necessary.
GVC
Well-Known Member
As discussed previously, I wouldn't mind a front-loaded 5-year, $50mm contract with $7.5mm signing bonus for Millsap. This would help the Jazz get their payroll to 90% of the cap (which isn't actually required) next season AND make Millsap look pretty attractive to opposing teams after year 2. The year-by-year salary and cap hit:
Year: Salary / Cap Hit
13/14: $17.5mm / $11.50mm
14/15: $9.25mm / $10.75mm
15/16: $8.50mm / $10.00mm
16/17: $7.75mm / $9.250mm
17/18: $7.00mm / $8.500mm
So, if the Jazz had/wanted to trade Millsap after year 2 (when Burks and Kanter will need new contracts), the team acquiring Millsap would be on the hook for only $23.25mm of salary and $27.75mm of cap hit over 3 years (an average of $7.75mm and $9.25mm respectively). That's pretty reasonable for a player of Millsap's caliber.
Year: Salary / Cap Hit
13/14: $17.5mm / $11.50mm
14/15: $9.25mm / $10.75mm
15/16: $8.50mm / $10.00mm
16/17: $7.75mm / $9.250mm
17/18: $7.00mm / $8.500mm
So, if the Jazz had/wanted to trade Millsap after year 2 (when Burks and Kanter will need new contracts), the team acquiring Millsap would be on the hook for only $23.25mm of salary and $27.75mm of cap hit over 3 years (an average of $7.75mm and $9.25mm respectively). That's pretty reasonable for a player of Millsap's caliber.
Lion's Roar
Active Member
Is Millsap better than Ilyasova or Anderson? Cause they posted PER's of 20.6 and 21.5 (or whatever) in their contract years. They rebounded as well if not better than Paul and guess what they can shoot 3's in bunches and in the new NBA stretch 4's are really a hot commodity and yet with all these things they couldn't get anywhere near $12M a year. We're talking about a 50% pay raise for someone that had equivalent or worse seasons than they had. Your take on contracts with raises and things like that is cool but the Jazz cash flow would be severely hampered by those terms. Small market teams only pay signing bonus when they absolutely have to. Most likely it would mean getting a loan to put forth $7.5M in one day.
So I went looking for the stats you had but then adding in post Jan 1st and could not find them but I looked at NBA's new advanced stats and something stood out to me.
When I compared Jefferson to Millsap offensively it showed that most of Jeffersons shots are mid ranged and he hits them at a 41% rate. Millsap on the other hand shoots mid ranged jumpers at a 35% rate. Jefferson in the paint but not restricted area shoots 46% while Millsap shoots 38%. In the restricted area is where most of Millsaps shots are taken and made and here he shoots 65% while Jefferson shoots at 64%. So Millsap is much better at getting to the rim for dunks and layups but Jefferson is a much better jump shooter. Then when you switch it to clutch times Jefferson shoot a much higher percentage at the rim and slightly better at mid ranged but percentages go down when he is in the paint but not restricted area. Millsaps shots at the rim go down to 54% in the clutch but his mid range and inside the paint but not at the rim percentages go way up.
shooting percentages: Jefferson normal/ Jefferson clutch/ Millsap normal/ Millsap clutch
Restricted area 64, 78 ,65,54
Inside the paint
(but not restricted) 46,29,38,43
Mid ranged 41,42,35,46
When you compare them to each other on off court there is some interesting things.
Millsap is responsible for more points when Jefferson is on the court. it goes from 24% of teams points to 23% when Jefferson is on the bench (you would think it would be the other way around)
Jefferson shoots a higher percentage when Millsap is on the bench and not on the court.
Millsap shoots a lower percentage when Jefferson is on the bench. (seems Jefferson take pressure of Millsap?)
Both of them Rebound a much worse percentage of teams rebounds when the other is on the bench (Kanter and Favors are probably much better at rebounding than both of them)
They have a +/- of -1.2 playing together but Jeffersons get worse when Millsap leaves and Millsaps gets better when Jefferson leaves (what stats above show)
When I compared Jefferson to Millsap offensively it showed that most of Jeffersons shots are mid ranged and he hits them at a 41% rate. Millsap on the other hand shoots mid ranged jumpers at a 35% rate. Jefferson in the paint but not restricted area shoots 46% while Millsap shoots 38%. In the restricted area is where most of Millsaps shots are taken and made and here he shoots 65% while Jefferson shoots at 64%. So Millsap is much better at getting to the rim for dunks and layups but Jefferson is a much better jump shooter. Then when you switch it to clutch times Jefferson shoot a much higher percentage at the rim and slightly better at mid ranged but percentages go down when he is in the paint but not restricted area. Millsaps shots at the rim go down to 54% in the clutch but his mid range and inside the paint but not at the rim percentages go way up.
shooting percentages: Jefferson normal/ Jefferson clutch/ Millsap normal/ Millsap clutch
Restricted area 64, 78 ,65,54
Inside the paint
(but not restricted) 46,29,38,43
Mid ranged 41,42,35,46
When you compare them to each other on off court there is some interesting things.
Millsap is responsible for more points when Jefferson is on the court. it goes from 24% of teams points to 23% when Jefferson is on the bench (you would think it would be the other way around)
Jefferson shoots a higher percentage when Millsap is on the bench and not on the court.
Millsap shoots a lower percentage when Jefferson is on the bench. (seems Jefferson take pressure of Millsap?)
Both of them Rebound a much worse percentage of teams rebounds when the other is on the bench (Kanter and Favors are probably much better at rebounding than both of them)
They have a +/- of -1.2 playing together but Jeffersons get worse when Millsap leaves and Millsaps gets better when Jefferson leaves (what stats above show)
GVC
Well-Known Member
1. I think PER is garbage.
2. Yes, I do think Millsap has a greater positive impact on the basketball court than either Ilyasova or Anderson. It might not be by much though, and the Jazz might luck out this summer with Millsap. We'll have to wait and see what the market for his services is like this summer.
3. The Jazz have a meager payroll next season. Further, they showed a willingness to pay a bunch upfront despite a high payroll when they matched the offer sheet Paul signed with Portland 4 years ago (they had to pay him roughly $10mm up front). I don't see why they wouldn't consider it, especially since they're going to have to have a payroll of at least 90% of the cap, and I'm sure they'd rather pay the players they pay in salary than by cutting a check at the end of the season and hurting their longterm flexibility.
I didn't read past this. Millsap has been producing at the level he is this year for most of his career. To answer your first question, he is, has been, and likely will continue to be (much?) better than both of those players.