Are the Jazz going to trade Rudy?

[Handlogten's Heros]

Supermax contracts haven't been around that long. But so far, they have been given to:

Curry - earned it with MVP and titles

Giannis - earned it with MVP and playoff success

Harden - earned it with MVP and playoff success

Lillard - earned it with playoff performances

Westbrook - earned it with MVP "Regretted"

Wall - earned it mainly off potential and All Star appearances "Regretted"

Rudy has done nothing to truly compare with the accomplishments of Harden, Curry, or Giannis. If Rudy gets it, it will be listed with the "Regretted."

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Lets go ahead and look at Westbrook... Does OKC regret giving him that deal or would they have rather had him walk for nothing? Wall has injuries... literally any contract with that amount of injuries will suck... max, supermax, whatever... if DM tears his achilles his extensions sucks too.

I think Rudy doesn't want full supermax... Tim McMahon said as much on the ESPN pod this AM. If Rudy is asking for what PG got... well that's kinda fair. I will agree with you a little here and say I won't give full supermax right now... I'd wait until next offseason to do it (assuming he is still eligible).

While the tail of the contract may suck you can either eat that at the end because you are rebuilding or you can trade him midway through the deal... Griffin, Westbrook, CP3... all guys who were traded for value while on "bad" contracts.

Rudy taking less or more will not materially change the team we can put around him... Rudy walking will. Maybe what we get in a trade is fantastic... but John Collins has just as much chance to be bad value on his next deal (based on what he is looking for in extension negotiations) as Rudy does. John Collins has played almost no meaningful regular season minutes let alone playoff minutes. So not sure that's a panacea either if its even available.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don't want him back at all. He's too emotional and thinks he's way better offensively than he is. Here we are in year 8 and he still can't catch most passes or make a shot outside of a dunk.

Trade him for the best haul of players and picks we can get and be done with his diva ***.

I respect you for digging in and having a take. I also respectfully disagree.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Supermax is overpay I think. Besides it's small ball era and bigs shooting 3s with passing skills like point guards. We need our own version of jokic and gasol.

We should trade Rudy for Jokic or prime Gasol then... until the Nuggets agree or time travel is possible we should stick with Rudy.

 

[Elizah Huge]

In the end I’d rather overpay for Gobert opposed to letting him walk over a couple million a year.

We are in no position to expect high end free agents to sign here. We can always get someone like Bogdanovic which was a great signing but other than similar players of his category that is about as high end as it gets.

Another thing is it’s not like we can let him walk next season and expect to have all of this cap room. If Rudy and Conley both sign elsewhere we’d have around 94M of guaranteed salary. Using the salary cap set at 109M this year that would be 15M to sign FA.

What we need to really do is sign Rudy even if it’s a slight overpay and then trade Conley mid-season or at the deadline for a player or players that are locked up for more than 2 years. Otherwise we are going to be strapped for any room to add any FA going forward.

It’s important to get under the tax this year to not start the repeater tax for next year.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We are in a really tough spot.

In the end I’d rather overpay for Gobert opposed to letting him walk over a couple million a year.

We are in no position to expect high end free agents to sign here. We can always get someone like Bogdanovic which was a great signing but other than similar players of his category that is about as high end as it gets.

Another thing is it’s not like we can let him walk next season and expect to have all of this cap room. If Rudy and Conley both sign elsewhere we’d have around 94M of guaranteed salary. Using the salary cap set at 109M this year that would be 15M to sign FA.

What we need to really do is sign Rudy even if it’s a slight overpay and then trade Conley mid-season or at the deadline for a player or players that are locked up for more than 2 years. Otherwise we are going to be strapped for any room to add any FA going forward.

It’s important to get under the tax this year to not start the repeater tax for next year.

I agree we preserve the asset with Rudy by extending... I don't think a Mike trade is feasible as it will lead to a huge... Brooklyn-esque tax.

Repeater tax is actually based on being in the tax 3 out of the last 4 years. So that clock is really starting in a couple years and is easily avoidable through trade of Favs/JC/Bojan or just by not signing any big deals to replace Ingles/Conley. Its not real issue yet... no need to start the clock early over a million in salary but not a huge issue at this point.

 

[Joncolton]

If the Jazz want to keep Gobert they may have to over-pay. Truth of the matter is tons of teams have cap space this summer (some of them were hoping to sign Giannis). With Giannis signing an extension and Paul George signing an extension - Rudy Gobert just became the 3rd best free agent available after Lebron and Kwahi.

The Miami Heat could be interested in playing a twin towers front court with Gobert and Bam.
The Mavericks ARE interested in having twin towers of Gobert and Porzingis.

Most dangerous of all - San Antonio will have 32 million in committed salary next season - and they've had their eye on Gobert for a while.

We want Gobert at a discount, but we have to pay market price.

 

[infection]

I haven't looked at next year's free agent class, but what if we did the hypothetical Mike for OPJ... what would OPJ get on the open market next year? We'd have advantage with bird rights. Clearly not getting what he's currently getting, but is he a guy you add to this core? Otherwise, you're looking at replacing Conley with a MLE guy. Are there better options?

 

[infection]

Okay, I just looked over next year's free agent list. It sucks. Well, when I say it sucks, what I mean is that of any of the guys that are impactful, we can't get them with the MLE. Sure, we could get someone decent with MLE, but not someone of an OPJ caliber.

2025 NBA Free Agents

Tracking the status and signings of all NBA free agents.

www.spotrac.com

It's time to trade for OPJ.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Okay, I just looked over next year's free agent list. It sucks. Well, when I say it sucks, what I mean is that of any of the guys that are impactful, we can't get them with the MLE. Sure, we could get someone decent with MLE, but not someone of an OPJ caliber.

2025 NBA Free Agents

Tracking the status and signings of all NBA free agents.

www.spotrac.com

It's time to trade for OPJ.

So heres the deal... assume we re-sign Rudy. If we just put minimum players and add our draft pick then we pay about 7M in tax... if you traded for OP Jr. and retained him at say 12M you are looking at about $34M in tax. The following year you are looking at 16M in tax.. after that you could avoid the tax.

Would save us some money now obvi but I think Conley or whoever we traded Conley for is a one year rental. I don't think we sign anyone beyond minimum players next year unless we move JC/Favs/Ingles/Bojan/Royce.

All that flexibility we had... well... its gone.

 

[One Brow]

Utah: we take a step back with Collins vs Rudy, but I think our center position would still be good with Favors, Collins and Udoka sharing time. Collins could be a superstar in the long term. He's a matchup nightmare. We could try to get Grant Williams, Langford, Carson Edwards, and/or other assets from Boston. And we avoid the luxury this year.

Yes, going from top-4 in the West to out of the playoffs is a "step back", for giants. This is the kind of deal that people who see only offense tend to think about.

In the NBA, any time you trade four quarters for the dollar, you lose the trade, because you can't play the four quarters at the same time.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Okay, I just looked over next year's free agent list. It sucks. Well, when I say it sucks, what I mean is that of any of the guys that are impactful, we can't get them with the MLE. Sure, we could get someone decent with MLE, but not someone of an OPJ caliber.

2025 NBA Free Agents

Tracking the status and signings of all NBA free agents.

www.spotrac.com

It's time to trade for OPJ.

I think there are really only two types of Conley trades I could see... One where he gets hurt and we dump him for a lesser contract that expires... the player doesn't really help in this case... or...

In our never ending quest to trade firsts for point guards... we swap Conley for Lowry but have to give a first to do it. He makes less and if Raps decide they aren't keeping Lowry but don't want to completely throw in the towel they do the swap to get a minor asset to help with the retool.

I would say both are very very unlikely.

A straight Conley for OP Jr. swap doesn't make sense for Chicago because it costs them money and they need more help at SF than at PG. So then you likely are working in a third team giving something better... I just don't see it. Sorry to crush your dreams.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yes, going from top-4 in the West to out of the playoffs is a "step back", for giants. This is the kind of deal that people who see only offense tend to think about.

In the NBA, any time you trade four quarters for the dollar, you lose the trade, because you can't play the four quarters at the same time.

Also... here is a little secret I'd like to share... this type of move might only be offense neutral because the offense is already good. Having a low usage but extreme efficiency player like Rudy who is also setting all the picks for guys to spring them open is pretty valuable. Collins is super interesting on offense, but he has to play with another big because defense... and so is Collins better than Bojan on offense? Thats who he is replacing.

Collins would be three steps back on defense and maybe step forward on offense... but could also be a step back there too. I like him and its better than nothing but it could be catastrophically bad on defense and be meh on offense because of diminishing returns. He does dunk pretty cool doe.