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Best Player Lineups for the Jazz

KqWIN said:
I think it's often the case that Dunn does the least bad, and that's a big thing when it comes to our PG's. When it comes to doing the least bad for this team, often that means not taking shots away from Lauri. If you look at the four factors, what's causing that strong ORTG with Dunn is the eFG%. Some of that can be noise, but IMO, what's really happening is that Lauri is getting more shots with Dunn than without him. The offense is terrific with Dunn+Lauri, not so great when it's Dunn without Lauri. THT and Sexton naturally use more possessions than Dunn. Those possessions have to go somewhere.

Lauri's usage and TS with:

Dunn: 28% / 66.5%
THT: 24.6% / 62.2%
Sexton: 24.4% / 61%

The difference in TS may just be noise/luck, so I'm not reading to much into that. But the uptick in usage for Lauri with Dunn....yeah I buy that.

Also worth noting, all of the other scoring guards (THT, Sexton, JC, Keyonte) shoot the ball extremely well from 3FG with Dunn. I think I'll chalk that up more to randomness than Dunn being an extremely good setup guy, but that's a big contributor to his strong ORTG. Methinks there is some truth to Dunn to being a stabilizer, especially compared to the other guards, but it's probably being overstated in the numbers right now. He's the most limited, but probably the one who does the least amount of damage on both ends.
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All that sounds like it makes sense, but the problem is that none of it is showing up in the advanced metrics that measure a player's effect on winning. Those numbers all say that Dunn is completely meh (at best) and doesn't matter in the big picture. This also matches the eye test. Dunn's game is a rollercoaster of inspired moments followed by painful brain farts. In that sense he's very similar to THT.

As you point out, among the vet guards Dunn has been the best at getting the ball to Lauri in his spots. But it doesn't seem to be making much of a difference in the wins column. I suspect our defense has simply been so terrible this season that it's drowning out even Lauri's hyper efficient game. Many of his advanced impact-related stats have dropped too even though the counting stats are right in line with last year.
 
Tremendous Upside said:
All that sounds like it makes sense, but the problem is that none of it is showing up in the advanced metrics that measure a player's effect on winning. Those numbers all say that Dunn is completely meh (at best) and doesn't matter in the big picture. This also matches the eye test. Dunn's game is a rollercoaster of inspired moments followed by painful brain farts. In that sense he's very similar to THT.

As you point out, among the vet guards Dunn has been the best at getting the ball to Lauri in his spots. But it doesn't seem to be making much of a difference in the wins column. I suspect our defense has simply been so terrible this season that it's drowning out even Lauri's hyper efficient game. Many of his advanced impact-related stats have dropped too even though the counting stats are right in line with last year.
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We're literally talking about how the Jazz play significantly better with Dunn on the court. He has the best on/off out of any rotation player. I know you bend over backwards to be negative, but at least do it in the right direction lmao. His box score numbers are not good, and thus his box score based metrics are also going to be bad. But what we know concretely is that the Jazz are playing well with Dunn on the court. How much of that can be attributed to him is another story.
 
KqWIN said:
I think it's often the case that Dunn does the least bad, and that's a big thing when it comes to our PG's. When it comes to doing the least bad for this team, often that means not taking shots away from Lauri. If you look at the four factors, what's causing that strong ORTG with Dunn is the eFG%. Some of that can be noise, but IMO, what's really happening is that Lauri is getting more shots with Dunn than without him. The offense is terrific with Dunn+Lauri, not so great when it's Dunn without Lauri. THT and Sexton naturally use more possessions than Dunn. Those possessions have to go somewhere.

Lauri's usage and TS with:

Dunn: 28% / 66.5%
THT: 24.6% / 62.2%
Sexton: 24.4% / 61%

The difference in TS may just be noise/luck, so I'm not reading to much into that. But the uptick in usage for Lauri with Dunn....yeah I buy that.

Also worth noting, all of the other scoring guards (THT, Sexton, JC, Keyonte) shoot the ball extremely well from 3FG with Dunn. I think I'll chalk that up more to randomness than Dunn being an extremely good setup guy, but that's a big contributor to his strong ORTG. Methinks there is some truth to Dunn to being a stabilizer, especially compared to the other guards, but it's probably being overstated in the numbers right now. He's the most limited, but probably the one who does the least amount of damage on both ends.
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I purposely watched for this specifically in the first half tonight and it absolutely checks out. If he gets the ball to our best player the most out of any of our PG’s and the most effectively he’s good in my book.
 
Elizah Huge said:
I purposely watched for this specifically in the first half tonight and it absolutely checks out. If he gets the ball to our best player the most out of any of our PG’s and the most effectively he’s good in my book.
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Its not only that but he also paces the offense well in transition. He reads the court and makes good calls on whether we need to push or slow down the tempo.
 
It's going to be interesting to see how Hardy handles Keyonte this next month.

Every Jazz guard has been playing well in December to the point where they are all arguably better than Keyonte now.

But it was kind of a soft month and our guards got to build confidence against bad and mediocre teams. Are Dunn/THT/Sexton really going to keep up this level of play against playoff/play-in teams?
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
It's going to be interesting to see how Hardy handles Keyonte this next month.

Every Jazz guard has been playing well in December to the point where they are all arguably better than Keyonte now.

But it was kind of a soft month and our guards got to build confidence against bad and mediocre teams. Are Dunn/THT/Sexton really going to keep up this level of play against playoff/play-in teams?
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Ya it's Hardy's toughest job right now imo. I don't know what he should do.

I think if winning is priority number 1 then maybe keyonte should ride pine as I think he is currently the worst of the group. Thing is that development needs to happen as well and the other guys aren't very much better than keyonte

My prediction is that keyonte will be back to starting and have a pretty long leash and be top 2 in minutes out of this group (I also think this is what hardy SHOULD do as well. I think he will do what should be done even if it costs some wins here)

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Tremendous Upside said:
I don't know about that. I'm not a fan of THT's and Sexton's games, but IMO they both have more raw talent than Keyonte. He's just the shiny new toy.
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Meh….you can decide for yourself what you mean by “raw talent”….but Keyonte is the only guy I see who has legitimate potential to be a good off the bounce shooter and passer out of PnR.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
It's always funny when people buy into Dunn's game like it has any chance of working against actual teams.
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Look, I'm not the biggest Dunn fan, I'm just trying to be objective as I look on to this. When I look at Dunn's advanced box scores for this year, this statement doesn't quite track. We have played well with Dunn against good teams. For example he had back to back games against OKC and NYK with offensive ratings against them of 136.5 and 141.7. He had 7 assists in each game.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Look, I'm not the biggest Dunn fan, I'm just trying to be objective as I look on to this. When I look at Dunn's advanced box scores for this year, this statement doesn't quite track. We have played well with Dunn against good teams. For example he had back to back games against OKC and NYK with offensive ratings against them of 136.5 and 141.7. He had 7 assists in each game.
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Ya he had lots of good games last season.
 
Maybe Hardy unlocks Dunn.
Hardy is the Dunn whisperer

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You put Dunn in a 5 out lineup and you can make some good things happen, but he's just awful with any kind of non-spacing bigs.

The closing lineup we had with Lauri at the 5 and Dunn at point might be something possibly.
 
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