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Black Monday/Orange Monday

Rubashov said:
No tariffs on Mexico and Canada at the minute i believe.
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Are the steel/auto 25% stuff still active? Though I do suppose it's all relative to a point. I am glad they're being treated better than some.

It being almost impossible to track is a big part of the problem.
 

Bond rout starting to sound market alarm bells​

Story by Reuters
• 7h•
2 min read

SINGAPORE (Reuters) -U.S. Treasuries extended heavy losses on Wednesday in a sign investors are dumping even their safest assets as a global market rout unleashed by U.S. tariffs takes an unnerving turn towards forced selling and a dash for the safety of cash.

"This is beyond fundamentals right now. This is about liquidity," said Jack Chambers, senior rates strategist at ANZ in Sydney.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, the globe's benchmark safe-haven anchor, was unmoored and long bonds were the focus of intense selling from hedge funds which had borrowed money to bet on usually small gaps between cash and futures prices.

It shot higher even as traders ramped up expectations for U.S. rate cuts and, in another signal of dislocation in markets, the dollar fell against the euro and yen.

At 4.46% the 10-year yield was up 20 basis points in Asia and some 60 basis points from Monday's low.

A three-day rise of nearly 60 basis points in 30-year yields, which spiked above 5%, would mark - if sustained - the heaviest selloff since 1981. Large, but smaller rises in yield hit sovereign bonds in Japan and Australia.

Warning signals had been flashing for a few days as spreads between Treasury yields and swap rates in the interbank market collapsed under the weight of bond selling.

Hedge funds were at the heart of it because their lenders could no longer stomach the 'basis trade' - large positions betting on small differences between cash Treasuries and futures prices as markets started to swing on tariff headlines.

"When the prime broker starts tightening the screws in terms of asking for more margins or saying that I can't lend you more money, then these guys obviously will have to sell," said Mukesh Dave, chief investment officer at Aravali Asset Management, a global arbitrage fund based in Singapore.

The highest U.S. tariffs in more than a hundred years came into force on Wednesday and strategists said a broader debate about the future of Treasuries as the centre of the global financial universe was underway.

"The UST sell-off may be signaling a regime shift whereby U.S. treasuries are no longer the global fixed-income safe haven," said Ben Wiltshire, G10 rates trading desk strategist at Citi.

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Kim Coghill)



 
Calvin Yeoh, portfolio manager at hedge fund Blue Edge Advisors Pte, told Bloomberg: "This is a fire-sale of Treasuries. I haven't seen moves or volatility of this size since the chaos of the pandemic in 2020."

British economist and former chief adviser to the Bank of England Charles Goodhart told Newsweek: "The longer-term structural problem is that the tariffs will raise U.S. inflation significantly, at a time when the administration wants to cut taxation sharply, is overestimating revenue from tariffs, and is trying to put pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates.


"In addition, what foreigners are likely to want to buy T[reasury] bonds now? So, the underlying structural condition looks to be one of increasing potential unsustainability of the U.S. fiscal position with a significant danger of accelerating inflation.

"Under these circumstances, U.S. T bonds will look increasingly risky over the medium to longer term, even if in the short run the [Federal Open Market Committee] cuts short-term interest rates quite sharply," he added. "A very sharply rising yield curve would then develop."

Paul De Grauwe, professor of political economy at the London School of Economics, told Newsweek: "If there is no quick reversal of economic policies, the U.S. Treasuries will indeed lose their safe-haven status. It will not come back soon, as the U.S. government is seen as unreliable much in the same way as governments of banana republics are."


"The Trump tariffs are one of the most spectacular self-harm decisions a government has made in history," he added. "It will lead to further negative effects for the U.S. economy. The sell-out of Treasuries is just one in a series of further self-inflicted economic negative events. A recession is now inevitable."
 
str8line said:
Just made my first moves. China are not going to back down now, we're ****ed.
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I have moved one full set of accounts, which makes up the bulk of my retirement savings, into a money market account that is the base for my IRAs. It has been fairly stable and I think it will be good enough to weather the storm. The other accounts I have I am just letting them ride it out and see where it ends up. I took a full screen shot of the accounts maybe 2 weeks ago to see where these end up later for comparison's sake. I can say that since I moved those accounts into the MMAs that everything would have dropped another 15%. It is just insane.
 
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