I'm not saying Corbin getting fired after 1 full season is impossible, but I would say it's extremely unlikely. The wheels would really have to come off for them to make a move like that.
Up until last season, Utah was a franchise that hung their hat on consistency and the fact that they never made moves in a panic. Now that Sloan's midseason retirement and the D-Will trade are in their rearview mirror, I think Utah is very eager to settle back down and return to business as usual.
I honestly don't know what Corbin would have to do (or not do) in order to get fired after just 1 full season. I'm sure the Miller's don't have a "playoffs or bust" type of attitude going into next season which means the bar is set pretty low for Ty heading into next year.
I just don't see The Miller's pulling the plug on a coach that soon.
Utah was only consistent and stable because it was successful. In Sloan's first season as head coach, Utah won 50 games for the first time in franchise history and would string together a decent stretch of success between 1989-1993. I can guarantee you had the Jazz dropped off dramatically after Layden's quick resignation and the franchise failed to make the playoffs, Sloan would have lasted maybe three seasons at the most.
So yeah, Utah was a steady franchise and never panicked with Sloan for 20-plus years. But with Sloan, the franchise also only finished with a losing season once under his leadership and missed the playoffs only three times - all toward the end of his career when he had built up enough goodwill to get through those down years.
Corbin doesn't have near the goodwill. That's not to say he won't build some next season - but I can foresee a scenario where the franchise wavers and makes a change. If he can't improve his winning percentage and, at the end of the next season, he's still roughly won less than 30% of his games as a head coach, I would not be floored if the organization made a change.
With all that said, I do tend to agree with your overall point. It's unlikely Corbin gets fired next season - even if the team struggles greatly. But that would mean he's in a make or break third year (technically two seasons and one fourth or so) and I could see the franchise pulling the plug if there isn't a solid leap toward respectability.
But the past doesn't necessarily dictate what happens in the future. Utah was only consistent and steadfast because it worked. In the 23 seasons Sloan coached the Jazz, they were contenders.
We're not dealing with that today. These Jazz are more similar to the pre-Frank Layden Jazz than the post-Layden.