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China's march towards war

str8line

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This article frames a recent purge by Xi Jinping as weeding out corrupt generals, while other articles portray it as Xi solidifying his power in order to wage war.



  • Summary
  • China 'purges' 9 PLA generals, clampdown seen widening
  • Upheaval weakens PLA, including in strategic rocket force
  • More time needed to clean up corruption - analyst
  • Problems may dissuade PLA from risking major clashes in near term
BEIJING, Dec 30 (Reuters) - A sweeping purge of Chinese generals has weakened the People's Liberation Army, exposing deep-rooted corruption that could take more time to fix and slow Chinese leader Xi Jinping's military modernization drive amid geopolitical tensions, analysts say.
China's top lawmakers ousted nine, opens new tab senior military officers from the national legislative body on Friday, state media reported, a step that typically precedes further punishment for wayward cadres. Many of these were from the Rocket Force - a key arm of the PLA overseeing tactical and nuclear missiles.
 
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This article frames it as Xi purging generals who might be anti-war in order to prepare for war:


 
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Some interesting comments from the second article:

"With the PRCs bellicose behavior, it becomes clearer daily. America requires a resolutely new way of thinking in dealing with Communist China. Traditional “economic engagement” theory does not meet the realities of this era. The People's Republic's intellectual theft, interference in elections, espionage, internet wars, coercion of neighboring countries, brazenly casual nullification of international economic rules and procedures, Wolf-Warriors. and a relentless titanic buildup of a military thermonuclear force targeted at somewhere close to you, are realities that most apologists for China would rather you never see, think or talk about. They would prefer to focus on how wonderful and alike with us the Chinese people are, or on their dancing troupes, but ignore, deny and deflect from their government’s present hyper-aggressive actions and future threat to worldwide democracies. This also particularly applies to dollar fixated western businesspeople who would easily strengthen China and diminish Americans future in exchange for pocketing a couple of years of profits. It cannot be overemphasized too that our businesses in China are at risk. And that the usual accepted laws of trade, commerce and political interaction do not apply to Beijing. And, that our own business investors usually do not care enough until their own assets are compromised, confiscated (as is happening now in Russia!), or our trade advantage and national security has been damaged. The rapacious Peoples Republic cannot be underestimated or tolerated, because they practice elements of communism which are fulfilling that belief system. Too many Americans are either asleep at the wheel, idly standing by or uncaring while this harmful cycle continues to build. Half measures and "economic engagement" will never deal adequately with this communist viper and their Wolf Warriors, excusers and apologists. Something very formidable, long term and wicked this way comes, and without Democratic guardrails."




"Former US Navy, and I can tell you that you DO NOT build the number of ships, aircraft, tanks and additional nuclear missiles silos at the speed china is building them, and then not use them. Even the USA has not done that except during WWI and WWII. china now has TWICE the size of the US Military in gear, ships etc. It literally has 20 times as many troops and reserves. The cost to MAINTAIN such a force IS a factor in a big way. Unless you intend on using all your GDP to support such a huge military, the only reason for building this large is to use those forces. There is NO other reason. Like I said, even here in the USA we only build enough to maintain and past that, we would only ramp up if war broke out. china is building in PREPARATION for war.. and the sad part is, politicians are still stuck in the appeasement mode thus no one is doing anything to get ready for what IS coming."
 
This third article seems like the most likely description of what's occuring:




"Xi has solidified his position as China's unrivaled leader to the extent that once he makes a major decision, none of the other six members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the party's top decision-making body, will strongly object.

But whether China's military can actually move quickly and effectively on the orders of Xi -- who also serves as chairman of the Central Military Commission, which supervises the PLA -- is another story.

This is exactly why Xi's closest aides are now making various preparations for the possible future use of military force.

Their top priority is to ensure the military's chain of command, with Xi at the very top, will work flawlessly.

In other words, the current storm of military purges can be interpreted as an attempt to wipe out "resistance forces," as one Chinese pundit put it. There is more to it than corruption scandals involving missiles filled with water."
 
If we wanted to deter China then I’m guessing Republicans tossing Ukraine under the bus probably isn’t helping. Autocrats know that you can wait out the west. Or at least just wait until Republicans choke off military aid because they see an opportunity to hurt their domestic opponents.

I can see where Xi, attempting to stave off domestic pressures, attempts to tap into Chinese nationalism and starting something stupid. Unfortunately, I don’t think America right now is in a good place to provide aid seeing that one political party is insistent on isolationism rather than cooperation.
 
This article frames a recent purge by Xi Jinping as weeding out corrupt generals, while other articles portray it as Xi solidifying his power in order to wage war.



  • Summary
  • China 'purges' 9 PLA generals, clampdown seen widening
  • Upheaval weakens PLA, including in strategic rocket force
  • More time needed to clean up corruption - analyst
  • Problems may dissuade PLA from risking major clashes in near term
BEIJING, Dec 30 (Reuters) - A sweeping purge of Chinese generals has weakened the People's Liberation Army, exposing deep-rooted corruption that could take more time to fix and slow Chinese leader Xi Jinping's military modernization drive amid geopolitical tensions, analysts say.
China's top lawmakers ousted nine, opens new tab senior military officers from the national legislative body on Friday, state media reported, a step that typically precedes further punishment for wayward cadres. Many of these were from the Rocket Force - a key arm of the PLA overseeing tactical and nuclear missiles.
Those articles seemed to have de-emphasized or omitted some important information. The reason the articles keep mentioning Rocket Force isn’t because the leaders of Rocket Force were anti-war, it is because during inspection it was discovered military members with access to the rockets had been selling off the fuel and replacing the fuel with water to hide the theft of the fuel.

To make things even more impactful, the audit findings made their way to western intelligence and even western press which has caused China to lose face.

 
Those articles seemed to have de-emphasized or omitted some important information. The reason the articles keep mentioning Rocket Force isn’t because the leaders of Rocket Force were anti-war, it is because during inspection it was discovered military members with access to the rockets had been selling off the fuel and replacing the fuel with water to hide the theft of the fuel.

To make things even more impactful, the audit findings made their way to western intelligence and even western press which has caused China to lose face.


Could those audit findings be a smokescreen put out by China just to make us think it was corruption?
 

Davos, SWITZERLAND — China returned to Davos in full force this week as it attempts to thaw relations with the international community and court investment following years of Covid-19 lockdowns and rising geopolitical tensions.

A delegation led by Chinese Premier Li Qiang is estimated to be the largest since 2017, when President Xi Jinping led an 80-strong cohort of Chinese business leaders and billionaires up the Swiss mountain.
 
take a stab then ??
Well, based on this shakeup I'd say they are 3-5 years from even getting serious about making that move.

I think Ukraine is an important factor in how China proceeds on Taiwan.

China is not in a hurry and doesn't need to be.

Okay, so the shakeup. I think Russia's Ukraine invasion exposed Russia for not having the military in reality that they did on paper. Many Russian generals and high ups pocketed military budget spending instead of building Russia's military. I think China, Xi in particular, saw that and wondered if in his nation's aggressive military expansion they actually had the military in reality that he was seeing on the reports. So, he checked. Turns out authoritarian one party states are rife with corruption. He found rockets with water in their fuel tanks and I'm sure much much more than that. So the people most responsible for this are probably going to be killed. This shakeup was not on the eve of war, to make that move more possible now, it is so that when there is a war it is successful.

I think Xi also wants to see how the "west" and the U.S. in particular hold up their commitments in the post-MAGA reality. The U.S. negotiated for Ukraine to give up nukes to Russia with the promise that we would protect them from Russia if Russia violated their promise to Ukraine to respect their sovereignty. We are currently NOT honoring that agreement specifically because of the MAGA faction of our government. That is encouraging to China in regard to Taiwan. But it is yet to be seen if the U.S. is going to go full MAGA and put traitor Trump back in charge or if we're going to just be boring old super power U.S.A. for a little bit longer. Super power U.S.A. isn't going to let China take Taiwan and super power U.S.A. has the complete ability to stop China from doing so. MAGA 'Merica, not so much.

Regardless of anything else, all China has to do is wait. There will be an opening at some point. They will continue to build their military. The U.S. and NATO will go through various ups and downs. At some point China may be able to take Taiwan by demand and not by arms. China may also be able to encapsulate Taiwan in such a way as to make any U.S. opposition irrelevant and make any Taiwanese resistance futile. It might be a modern version of a siege.

Anyway, none of that is happening in 2024 or 2025.
 
All Xi has to do is promise Donald a Trump Tower (but not actually fulfill that promise) in China or he’ll Donald get elected and he’ll become his poodle. It worked for Putin.
 
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Doesn’t sound like Trump would come to Taiwan’s defense if invaded.


View: https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1748871427850166429?s=46&t=QT7YFlZ_IlHq81PpZAhKgw

We should have taxed Taiwan?

Yes we need more semiconductor production in the U.S.. This is not a simple issue. If we were better situated to do it here we would be doing it here. In regard to high tech bleeding edge silicon production labor costs are nothing. In most industries that is the biggest expense, that is not true in semiconductor manufacturing. The labor cost are essentially meaningless in high end semiconductor manufacturing. So if the U.S. had the labor pool to make it happen here, it would be happening here. I mean it does happen here, but not at the scale that it happens in Taiwan. They have built their culture and industry around cutting edge semiconductor manufacturing. This is not a switch you can flip. Trump can't fix this.
 
if the U.S. had the labor pool to make it happen here, it would be happening here. I mean it does happen here, but not at the scale that it happens in Taiwan. They have built their culture and industry around cutting edge semiconductor manufacturing. This is not a switch you can flip.
It does take time but efforts to on-shore this industry are already well under way.


Taiwan's TSMC is the bleeding edge but TSMC doesn't make their own lithography machines. The most advanced lithography machines are from ASML located in the Netherlands, US based Micron should be able to match the best TSMC can produce within the next five years.
 
It does take time but efforts to on-shore this industry are already well under way.


Taiwan's TSMC is the bleeding edge but TSMC doesn't make their own lithography machines. The most advanced lithography machines are from ASML located in the Netherlands, US based Micron should be able to match the best TSMC can produce within the next five years.
I've worked in the semiconductor industry, for Micron, and I'll tell you that it isn't five years out.
 
I've worked in the semiconductor industry, for Micron, and I'll tell you that it isn't five years out.
I've also worked in the semiconductor industry, for one of the larger brokers in Orange County, and wow do I miss that money. We used to buy a ton from Crucial but I admit that I don't have direct hands-on in fab construction. That said, we'll see. Things can be purchased and the US government is famous for throwing money at problems.
 
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