Coal Aldrich

[InGameStrategy]

I disagree completely. Those comparisons seem very arbitrary and contrived to me. Cyclo's used two specific examples to support his argument. If I were to find that Aldrich averaged more PPG than Shaq in ONE season of college, would you automatically be convinced that he would become a better or equal scorer to Shaq at the NBA level (Shaq averaged 13.9 PPG his freshman season, Aldrich averaged 14.9 his sophomore season)? Of course he won't ever be at that level. But that's basically the argument cyclo is making. There are thousands of players that you could compare Aldrich's college stats to, why limit yourself to two players (Pryzbilla and Montross)?

Cyclo just picked those two because they fit his argument of Aldrich being offensively inept. Cyclo also conveniently didn't compare Aldrich's sophomore season to those two, correct? That's because Aldrich's sophomore season he averaged 14.9, so it didn't support the argument and it was conveniently excluded. That's not an honest comparison of the three, even if you were to make it on the flawed premise cyclo and yourself have. If you really want to compare their sophomore seasons to each other Montross averaged 11.2 PPG his sophomore season and Pryzbilla averaged 14.2. Aldrich averaged 14.9 as I mentioned, more than both of them. But does it really matter? No, because they are each their own player. NBA GM's jobs would be pretty easy if the analysis of a player's NBA future was that simple, wouldn't it? There are countless other factors that determines their success level in the NBA, like their work ethic, injuries, the system they are in, etc.

I could probably of find dozens of players if I took the time that had similar numbers to Aldrich and went on to have good/great NBA careers. But that wouldn't mean Aldrich would go on to have careers just like them either. Their fates aren't automatically tied in the NBA because they had similar college numbers...they are each their own entity.

Sources: https://www.lsusports.net/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=5200&ATCLID=174841
https://www.databasebasketball.com/players/playerpage.htm?ilkid=PRZYBJO01
https://www.databasebasketball.com/players/playerpage.htm?ilkid=MONTRER01

Nice, thoughtful post, Cali. Always appreciated.

I agree that it's a stretch to compare college stats of one player to the pro stats of another. The quality (and size) of competition is just too wide.

I like that Aldrich has some agility--probably more so than Kouf and maybe Fes. But then again, he's a couple of inches shorter.

I question Aldrich's strength. He benched only 10 reps (then again, Brook Lopez benched only 7, and Udoh benched only 10, too), and his vert is only 28" (Koufos jumped 33"; Lopez 30"). With Udoh and Aldrich, you get similar maximum vertical height and total weight. I still like the flexibility of Udoh being more likely a PF/C and a bit more agile than Aldrich more likely being a C only, but I am less uncomfortable with Aldrich than I used to be. Chances are Udoh will be gone anyway.

If whoever the Jazz pick can defend the basket (e.g., Gasol or Odom), then he'd be worth it.

 

[Jazz4ever]

They needed a PG and did not buy that their would be an elite one left(they were correct). Making that trade was not that risky.

But Williams was not projected to be elite by most teams. Otherwise Marvin frickin Williams wouldn't have been picked before him and Portland never would have done the trade. His numbers in college were just ok, but rumors were he may have weight problems, and was an older prospect. Some would even argue Dee Williams was the best player on the Illini - thus it was a risky move regardless of whether they needed a PG or not. There were plenty of PG that year they could have got at a lower pick (Felton).

 

[BENTLEY]

I could probably of find dozens of players if I took the time that had similar numbers to Aldrich and went on to have good/great NBA careers. But that wouldn't mean Aldrich would go on to have careers just like them either. Their fates aren't automatically tied in the NBA because they had similar college numbers...they are each their own entity.

I see your point. But it's one of many factors that sway my gut one way or another. It's all a gamble and you go with your gut - after you try and look at the gamble from every angle and calculate pot odds, etc. So Cyclo's comparison of the college stats of a couple pros makes me feel like I have absorbed another factor before making a gut decision. But maybe, as you say, those numbers won't really tell me anything anyway. ...My guts are totally upset. This year I'm not sure of anything. Well, I feel pretty sure Aldridge will be pretty good. But will someone else like Whiteside, in a year or so, be so much better? I DON'T KNOW!!

Aldrich has work ethic and high bbIQ. This calms my gut a bit. But Whiteside might become even better defensively AND offensively. My gut goes outta wack again.

Going with the gambling metaphor, what do we give up opting for the Aldrich pot over the Whiteside pot? Aldrich looks better now but how will the two pots look in a year or two? Which one do we want to invest the #9 pick in? ...I'm flummoxed.

My gut is unsure about Aldrich in comparison to a supposedly higher upside guy like Whiteside. My gut is pretty unsure about Whiteside in comparison to supposedly solid with low ceiling guy like Aldrich. In actuality, what says that is Aldrich's ceiling is low? Cali, who would you predict Aldrich's game is comparable to in the pros? I just don't know. And your gut tells you Aldrich is your guy.

Will Whiteside become Kevin Garnett? there are things that say "No way" and other things that say "the talent's there." Will Aldrich become Ostertag? No. No, he won't. There's no question about that. Will he become Pryzbilla? Maybe? Will he become Shaq? I dunno.

I'm gonna stop now as I feel I've sufficiently demonstrated my lack of confidence in feeling good about any player.

 

[gregbroncs]

But Williams was not projected to be elite by most teams. Otherwise Marvin frickin Williams wouldn't have been picked before him and Portland never would have done the trade. His numbers in college were just ok, but rumors were he may have weight problems, and was an older prospect. Some would even argue Dee Williams was the best player on the Illini - thus it was a risky move regardless of whether they needed a PG or not. There were plenty of PG that year they could have got at a lower pick (Felton).

Felton went before their original 6th pick. Deron was going to go 4th or 5th if Utah did not pick him when they did and the Jazz would have missed on Paul as well. They gave up very little to move up. It would have been a bigger risk to stay at 6 and not get the PG they needed than it was to move up to 6 and be assured of getting either Paul or Williams. Atlanta needed a PG that year as well and could have easily taken Paul or Deron. Why they didn't is beyond me but it was not a forgone conclusion that they wouldn't. So I don't buy this as a risky move. It was a smart decision but the bigger risk that year would have been staying at 6 and probably not getting a good PG at all. They traded a later pick in that years draft, and it came out they had planned on using it on CJ who they got with their 2nd round pick anyway. the other pick they gave up was a future 1st. Not a big loss for being assured of a top PG.

 

[Hopper]

But Williams was not projected to be elite by most teams.

Many said the Jazz took a big risk choosing Williams over Christina, but most (especially on message boards) simply said it was stupid. Most also thought Felton was better than Williams. Actually, KOC wanted Chrissy-girl, but Sloan insisted on Williams. Mebbe ole Jer aint as stoopid as he sometimes looks, eh?

 

[squareinthecircle]

Yup CP is showing that his body can't handle the league like we thought.

 

[Hopper]

Yup CP is showing that his body can't handle the league like we thought.

Before her first year was out, Christina simply quit trying to take the ball to the hoop after gittin knocked around so bad, so she worked on the 5-foot "floater." That can be effective, I spoze, but ax yourself:

Which you you more soon rather see from your point guard?

1. Some candyass floater, or


2. A dunk in the face of some 7-footer?

 

[gregbroncs]

Many said the Jazz took a big risk choosing Williams over Christina, but most (especially on message boards) simply said it was stupid. Most also thought Felton was better than Williams. Actually, KOC wanted Chrissy-girl, but Sloan insisted on Williams. Mebbe ole Jer aint as stoopid as he sometimes looks, eh?

And of course you have a quote from KOC and Sloan stating who they preferred?

 

[Hopper]

And of course you have a quote from KOC and Sloan stating who they preferred?

Naw, not handy, Greg, but I've seen it reported. Don't care to go searchin for it. You can believe it or not. If you really care, you can look it up. Probably sumthin Miller said, but I really don't remember.

 

[Hopper]

This is KOC's current story about it, though:

"His best deal?

"Deron Williams," he said. "Moving from sixth to third in the [2005] draft. We gave up two late first-round picks."

O'Connor said when Andrew Bogut and Marvin Williams were selected one-two, and after he and other Jazz execs and coaches "banged everything around," the group made what he said was a unanimous decision.

He claimed that, contrary to subsequent lore that sprouted around the choice between Chris Paul and Williams, there was no strong dissenting opinion.

"I talked to everybody," he said. "We all wanted Deron."

Nobody wanted Paul more?

"It was a win," he said, "either way."

https://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_14526963?source=rss

 

[Hopper]

KOC denies they was any "strong" dissenting opinion, and, of course, he came on board "after he and other Jazz execs and coaches "banged everything around."

It probably was Miller I heard talking about it. He said that, initially, at least, KOC favored Chrissy, but Sloan didn't.

 

[Revolution 9]

I wouldn't mind getting Aldrich in the teens or late first round. But not at #9. You would hope that @ #9 you would be able to find a starter that could end up being a star. Not a Joel Chris Phzilla/Troy Murphy type career role/bench player.

It's very hard to get a "star" at 9. Seriously, look at the people that are going to be available when we draft.
There doesn't look to be any star potential beyond pick 4 in this draft. There are a lot of solid players though. Henry, Aldrich, Udoh, Monroe etc will all be solid players imo, but not all stars.
You hope to get a starter, and Cole looks like one on the right team.