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Coal Aldrich

cyclo said:
Cole Aldrich is destined to be a lottery BUST in the tradition of Eric Montross, Todd Fuller and Joel Pryzbilla. How is that "low risk" for the Jazz at #9 in the lottery?

Aldrich measured only 6-9 in socks, which is shorter than every center on the Jazz roster and 3 inches shorter than Ostertag.

He weighs 236 lbs.

His max vertical leap is 28 inches, which is lead-footed.

He simply cannot score (9.4 ppg in college) and won't score at the NBA level. Isn't much of a passer either. Averaged less than 1 assist per game in college. 0.6 to be exact.

One draft website compares Aldrich to Eric Montross/Joel Pryzbilla. The comparison is accurate. See their career numbers in college.

Eric Montross, North Carolina, 7-0
11.7 ppg 6.8 rpg 0.6 apg 1.2 bpg 58.5 fg%

Joel Pryzbilla, Minnesota, 7-1
9.9 ppg. 6.9 rpg. 1.9 apg. 3.3 bpg. 59.1 fg%

Cole Aldrich, Kansas, 6-10
9.4 ppg. 7.7 rpg. 0.6 apg. 2.3 bpg. 57.4 fg%

Aldrich is the most offensively-challenged of the three, averaging the fewest points per game on the lowest field goal%.

A 3 inch shorter version of Ostertag? Indeed.

Final season scoring in college:

Joel Pryzbilla 14.4 ppg 61.3% fg.
Eric Montross 13.6 ppg 56% fg.
Cole Aldrich 11.3 ppg 56% fg.

The offensively-challenged one.

A worse offensive player than Montross and Pryzbilla? Yep.

Just what the Jazz need in the lottery? Nope.
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Wow. This post is so flawed I don't even no where to begin. I'll try to get through this one-by-one...because this was a terribly ignorant post.

-Players in the NBA are measured with their shoes on. Any measurement that you will find on any NBA website will list players by that measurement, including Ostertag (who is completely irrelevant in this discussion regardless) who you referenced Aldrich was shorter than. Cole Aldrich will be listed 6'11" in the NBA. But if you want to go without shoes, Whiteside is only 1.5 inches taller, Monroe .75 inches taller, and Cousins .5 inches taller. He's not undersized. You conveniently forgot to mention his wingspan and reach, which is much more significant when it comes to blocking and getting deflections. As someone said earlier in this thread, you don't block shots with your head. His wingspan was measured at 7' 4.75", longer than Udoh's, Monroe's, Ed Davis', and Favors'; his reach is 9' 3.5", which is still longer than all of those prospects I just mentioned. Don't believe me? DraftExpress lists under his strengths: "Size for position" and "Excellent wingspan". https://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Cole-Aldrich-1250/

-You say Aldrich averaged 9.4 ppg for his college career which is correct. But it is also very misleading. You included his freshman season (which is ridiculous) in which he played 8.3 MPG. Give me a break. You included this for all of his statistics. If you average his sophomore and junior seasons when he got real PT, he averaged 13.1 PPG. His sophomore season was his best season, in which he averaged 14.9 PPG. If you consider all of the options the Kansas team had offensively, that's really not bad at all.

-Cole Aldrich is one of the most efficient big man in the draft. The numbers back this up. John Hollinger's PER stat gives Aldrich a 28.7 rating, which is higher than Monroe, Davis, Udoh, and Patrick Patterson. It's also significantly higher than Aminu, Hayward, and Henry to boot. He's also higher than all of those players in efficiency per 40 minutes (29.9). Here's an explanation for these stats if you need it: https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html. These stats basically show how Aldrich doesn't get the ball all that much, but when he did, he made the most of it. If he would have gotten more touches, he surely would have had higher numbers. The kicker is, all of these came from his junior season which was statistically worse than his sophomore season. His sophomore season ratings are significantly higher because of it. Note: I got those ratings off the DraftExpress website.

-Comparing Aldrich's statistics to Pryzbilla and Montross is completely illogical. Pryzbilla and Montross aren't prospects in this draft and played in college basketball several seasons ago. What the hell do they have to with anything? They have similar numbers in college so it automatically means he's going to end to be the same in the NBA? Pretty big leap you make there. It makes more sense to compare him to his peers in THIS draft like I did in my previous points, because that is what the choice is between.

-Evaluating a player isn't all about numbers. Missing in all of this is how dominant of a defensive player Aldrich was and will be. Let me ask you, where have the Jazz had the most struggles over the past several seasons? Offense or defense? It's safe to say it's defense. You're telling me you won't sacrifice a little bit offensively to get a dominant defensive center? I don't understand. The impact he can have on the game defensively is immense. If you look at the scouting report on DraftExpress, his strengths include:

- Efficiency
- Likes to mix it up inside
- Pick and roll play
- Relatively mistake-free
- Ability to establish position in post
- Back to basket scoring
- Excellent hands
- Activity level
- Defensive fundamentals
- Defensive Post Presence
- Shot-blocking skills
- Experience
- Physical Toughness
- Role-player potential
- Understands limitations
- Excellent wingspan
- Mobility
- Size for position
- Solid frame
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-The Jazz value physical toughness (especially Sloan). He has it. The Jazz value pick-and-roll play. He excels at that. Shot blocking skills and being a disruptive force inside? The Jazz need that desperately. I think you can even admit that. He offers that in a big way.

-You're going off this stereotype in your head that Aldrich went to Kansas, is big, and is white so he must be like Ostertag. This logic is so flawed and if you saw him play you would know this is not true at all. First of all, Ostertag had hands of stone that caught almost nothing thrown his way. Aldrich has excellent hands that catch difficult passes. He has much more agility/mobility than Ostertag. Go watch Youtube highlights if you want, he moves much better than Ostertag. For proof, look at how he tested at the pre-draft combine: He timed a 11.48 secs in the agility drill, which is faster than Monroe, Whiteside, and Favors. His 3/4 court sprint time (3.35) is faster than Cousins and Whiteside. These numbers prove despite his lack his vertical jump (which is compensated by his wingspan), he is an underrated athlete who should be able to run the floor and move laterally relatively well for a person his size and position. https://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pr...0&sort2=DESC&draft=0&pos=5&source=All&sort=16

Enough proof to bash your ignorant comparisons to Ostertag yet?
 
Yeah this guy is going to be a defensive presence. With the state of centers in the NBA Aldrich's value should be much higher. And yes he can stop Bynum and Gasol. Watch his play in college- 300 lbers couldn't back him down. Cole has a low center of gravity and very strong legs and it's well known that it's almost impossible to back him down.

BTW first post long time Jazz fan. Lived in SLC for 3 years from 89 to 92, went to several games back then and am still a huge Jazz, Sloan, Stockton and Malone fan. Now in Sacramento CA and dig the Kings too. Don't like it lump it.
 
Jazz4ever said:
Yep gambling future firsts to take DWill was a "safe" choice. This is only the second top ten pick in 20 some years for the Jazz its not going to be based on need. Watch and learn.
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They needed a PG and did not buy that their would be an elite one left(they were correct). Making that trade was not that risky.
 
Nice rebuttal, Cali. But cyclo's comparing Aldrich's college numbers to Montross and Pryzbilla's college numbers was persuasive in that we get an indication of what he will become in the NBA. (I agree with you that it was flawed including Aldrich's freshman season - those 8 min/game numbers should be omitted in order to get an accurate assessment.)

Comparing Aldrich to his fellow draftees tells me about the past, but ignores upside/potential in the NBA game. Many of the other guys in this draft are still raw prospects. I mean, Favors is regarded as a top pick not because his college numbers were amazing - but because his ceiling is high. So rather than comparing Aldrich with his fellow not-fully-realized draftees, there's a lot of value in comparing Aldrich's college numbers to the college numbers of some pros. It will give us a better indication of what he might become in the NBA game. And no, the pros don't have to be white.
 
billyshelby said:
This is my thing with Aldrich: A crappy team should definitely draft the kid at 9. They need talent everywhere, they need a guy that can help, they can't risk a bust. They want low risk guys that will almost definitely contribute in some way. We're not a crappy team. We're sitting at 9. The idea should be to pick the highest ceiling player possible with the lowest acceptable risk. Under no circumstances will Aldrich ever be the highest ceiling possible, lowest acceptable risk available. But we should be taking much more risk than the usual team drafting at 9.
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I agree this is what they should be doing. Do you think they will? I don't.
 
With a quality team like the Jazz, I think we should do everything in our power to trade up without gutting the team. As you all know it is so rare that we get a lottery pick, I think we should be trying to get a low risk impact player especially considering we're going to lose Boozer to free agency. If we draft a player like Udoh, who I believe will be a decent pro someday, we're not improving the team because Udoh is not going to come in and bring 20 and 10 right away most likely. Plus, as you all know, Jerry brings most rookies along very slowly. The rare exceptions are people who play too well to sit on the bench. I don't believe there are any of those players that are obvious beyond the 1-5 picks, and even a couple of those are question marks.

I would prefer Favors, but even Turner would bring us a quality scorer that would help offset the lose of Boozer. We can then focus more on defensive-minded bigs rather than worry about a 20 10 guy. I think that Millsap will get us close to that anyway.
 
Aldrich seems like the best option that may still be available when we pick simply because he can defend the basket. Lack of someone who can defend the paint was the reason why we got swept by the Lakers. So I will be happy if the Jazz picks Aldrich at #9, and won't be disappointed if they pick a big (Udoh, Monroe, Whiteside).
 
BENTLEY said:
Nice rebuttal, Cali. But cyclo's comparing Aldrich's college numbers to Montross and Pryzbilla's college numbers was persuasive in that we get an indication of what he will become in the NBA. (I agree with you that it was flawed including Aldrich's freshman season - those 8 min/game numbers should be omitted in order to get an accurate assessment.)

Comparing Aldrich to his fellow draftees tells me about the past, but ignores upside/potential in the NBA game. Many of the other guys in this draft are still raw prospects. I mean, Favors is regarded as a top pick not because his college numbers were amazing - but because his ceiling is high. So rather than comparing Aldrich with his fellow not-fully-realized draftees, there's a lot of value in comparing Aldrich's college numbers to the college numbers of some pros. It will give us a better indication of what he might become in the NBA game. And no, the pros don't have to be white.
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I disagree completely. Those comparisons seem very arbitrary and contrived to me. Cyclo's used two specific examples to support his argument. If I were to find that Aldrich averaged more PPG than Shaq in ONE season of college, would you automatically be convinced that he would become a better or equal scorer to Shaq at the NBA level (Shaq averaged 13.9 PPG his freshman season, Aldrich averaged 14.9 his sophomore season)? Of course he won't ever be at that level. But that's basically the argument cyclo is making. There are thousands of players that you could compare Aldrich's college stats to, why limit yourself to two players (Pryzbilla and Montross)?

Cyclo just picked those two because they fit his argument of Aldrich being offensively inept. Cyclo also conveniently didn't compare Aldrich's sophomore season to those two, correct? That's because Aldrich's sophomore season he averaged 14.9, so it didn't support the argument and it was conveniently excluded. That's not an honest comparison of the three, even if you were to make it on the flawed premise cyclo and yourself have. If you really want to compare their sophomore seasons to each other Montross averaged 11.2 PPG his sophomore season and Pryzbilla averaged 14.2. Aldrich averaged 14.9 as I mentioned, more than both of them. But does it really matter? No, because they are each their own player. NBA GM's jobs would be pretty easy if the analysis of a player's NBA future was that simple, wouldn't it? There are countless other factors that determines their success level in the NBA, like their work ethic, injuries, the system they are in, etc.

I could probably of find dozens of players if I took the time that had similar numbers to Aldrich and went on to have good/great NBA careers. But that wouldn't mean Aldrich would go on to have careers just like them either. Their fates aren't automatically tied in the NBA because they had similar college numbers...they are each their own entity.

Sources: https://www.lsusports.net/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=5200&ATCLID=174841
https://www.databasebasketball.com/players/playerpage.htm?ilkid=PRZYBJO01
https://www.databasebasketball.com/players/playerpage.htm?ilkid=MONTRER01
 
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gregbroncs said:
They needed a PG and did not buy that their would be an elite one left(they were correct). Making that trade was not that risky.
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Exactly. KOC said there were only three PG's they valued in the draft. Dropping to 6th meant that DWill, CP3 and Felton might all be gone. And KOC was right: those 3 PG's went 3,4, and 5.
PG WAS our greatest need. And KOC drafted that position. Now certainly, had Bogut dropped to 3rd, maybe he would have been a consideration. But I doubt the Jazz would have drafted Marvin Williams. Not with AK and Boozer already in place. BPA generally trumps need. But if there are 2-3 players who are very close in value on your draft board, then need is the tie-breaker.

In terms of this draft, the Jazz have the greatest need at the 5, especially with Memo's injury. Aldrich has the lowest ceiling, but he's also the most NBA-ready. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jazz draft Cole. Monroe would also be a possibility as he has the height to play some at the 5. But toughness is the question. But if the Jazz aren't that sold on a 4/5, the yes, I could see them drafting a guy like Babbitt or Honzward or Henry - a lights out shooter to add to the wing rotation.

Personally, I'm in favor of drafting Whiteside. He's got the greatest upside and could be one of the "missing pieces" as a shot-blocker and defensive presence. AK can play minutes at PF behind Millsap (if Boozer isn't re-signed). The Jazz would need to bring in a veteran C if Memo isn't ready to go. You can't start the season with Fes and Whiteside as the only options.

If the Jazz draft a SF, then you know they're looking to trade AK at the deadline or before. And maybe that would signal they're going to make a serious offer to Boozer.
 
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