Coin....

[mellow]

Yes, the alert was posted due to some people like you. I appreciate you not jumping the gun with a neg rep, though!

So you missed the sarcasm of my reply? Or am I missing the sarcasm of your reply to my reply?

No mater, but for the record, I think I have only negatived three times, and one of those was supposed to be positive.
The other two I regret.

 

[GVC]

lowest we can realistically drop now is 7

The Jazz have a 9.9 percent shot at the fourth selection, 37.3 percent shot at fifth, 17.6 shot at sixth and 1.4 percent shot at seventh.

My calculations seem to be a bit different than the couple I've seen online.

For pick probabilities, I have:

1: 10.400%
2: 11.201%
3: 12.092%
4: 9.855%
5: 37.291%
6: 17.747%
7: 1.415%

 

[Jazzonic3030]

So, in laymans terms, why is there a better chance of getting 6th than 4th if your end up 4th? Isn't that odd?

Disclaimer, I didn't graduate highschool. Seriously.

i agree, i don't undertand the process of selection.

 

[BENTLEY]

So you missed the sarcasm of my reply? Or am I missing the sarcasm of your reply to my reply?

No mater, but for the record, I think I have only negatived three times, and one of those was supposed to be positive.
The other two I regret.

Every time it says it won't let me rep someone I think that's telling me I need to neg someone. So don't take it personally.

 

[SojoDave]

Here is how the NBA draft lottery works.

1. All teams missing the playoffs are in the Lottery
2. Teams with worse records get more chances at winning a top three pick (more ping pong ball combos)
3. The 1st overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
4. The 2nd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
5. The 3rd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
6. Remaining lottery teams, sorted by record, fill out picks 4-14
7. Playoff teams, sorted by record, are assigned picks 15-30 - playoff seeds and outcomes have no impact
8. Coin flip(or drawing) decides who picks first between teams with same record
9. Tied lottery teams split their ping pong balls evenly, and any odd remainder and the better draft order position are given to the coin flip winner

 

[GVC]

So, in laymans terms, why is there a better chance of getting 6th than 4th if your end up 4th? Isn't that odd?

Disclaimer, I didn't graduate highschool. Seriously.

There's only about a 10% chance that the worst 3 teams all end up picking in the top 3 (in any order). There's roughly a 34% chance the Jazz end up in the top 3. That leaves a 56% chance that at least one non-Jazz team outside the top 3 ends up picking in the top 3 and the Jazz don't pick in the top 3, which is about 5.5x more likely than the top 3 picking in the top 3, which is what's required for the Jazz to end up picking 4th. That's why 5th is the most likely outcome.

6th is more likely than 4th because it's more likely 2 non-bottom-3 teams end up picking in the top 3 than all 3 bottom-3 teams picking in the top 3 (again, 10% chance).

 

[SojoDave]

68.7380% of all stats are made up on the spot.

 

[GVC]

68.7380% of all stats are made up on the spot.

About 0% of the stats in this thread are made up.

 

[mellow]

My dream lottery outcome would be

1- jazz
2- Sacramento or minny
3- pelicans

Drop all three of the least conference shameful tankers, drop the lakers, drop Boston, Charlotte nabs Detroits pick and 76 ers lose out on the Pelicans pick.

If the jazz can't win it I want minny, or Sacramento in front of them....they always screw up the draft.

 

[YB85]

They won the tiebreaker with Boston?

There's a lot of math in this thread?

 

[mellow]

68.7380% of all stats are made up on the spot.

Link?

 

[Doublea]

So they get 1 extra ball right?

No we got the extra ball and we got the 4th position (ahead of boston) if we don't move up.