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Could you win with Lauri and Key being your closers?

HermanG

HermanG

Well-Known Member
2025 Award Winner
As we all have heard multiple times, Lauri and Key are one of the best scoring duos in the NBA. However its not just PPG where they excel... its also clutch scoring and efficiency. They actually rank 10th and 11th in points per game if you exclude Obi Toppin and PJ Hall who both have appeared on just 1 clutch game this season.

Here is the full top 11 in points per game in the clutch (min 2 clutch games):

1768317483412.png

Notable things:
- Nobody is touching SGA's volume except Joker. Both are also very efficient. However for whatever reason Joker has a losing clutch record this year. Obviously those two are the main problems and we all know it.
- Out of top 11 guys Lauri has the 3rd best TS% in the clutch (64.4%) losing only to Anthony Edwards (insane 82.1%) and Jokic (73.4%). Keyonte is 6th best with similar percent at 63.4% (SGA and Harden are #4 and #5)
- Out of these top guys Lauri has the 3rd best clutch win% at 66.7% (SGA 73.3% and Coby White 70% ahead of him). Keyonte is 6th again with 58.8% (Cade and Edwards are #4 and #5).

Now what makes this even more interesting is that we have actually played majority of our clutch games against playoff teams. Here are all our clutch game opponents this season:
W: Suns, Celtics, Chicago, Houston, Memphis, Dallas, Detroit, Dallas, Cleveland, Spurs
L: Kings, Blazers, Hawks, Lakers, Lakers, Magic, OKC

So that list has only 6 games against sub .500 teams, and 11 games against above .500 teams. We are 3-3 against lower tier opponents and 7-4 against higher tier opponents.

Now keep in mind what type of supporting cast some of these other guys have especially on the defensive side of the ball. So in case we dont win the lottery (= get a guy who should become the future face of franchise)... could we actually win a playoff series with Lauri and Key as our top 2 closers if we just surrounded them with right type of quality supporting cast?
 
Just FYI what inspired me to ask this question was when I read JA quotes about DM heroball costing them games.. So I went to see DM clutch stats this year and saw this:

1768320643375.png

Scoring just 2.4 points with 37/29/67 splits and worse FTR than either one of Lauri and Key.... yeah that explains Cavs 7-12 record in the clutch with him.
 
Jokic's losing clutch record is largely because he's been playing with half a team, and he still dragged them to 2nd in the West with 3 of the 5 starters injured, before he himself was injured. The guy is super-human, well on his way to another MVP.
 
The only way Key and Laurie can anchor a winning team, clutch or not, is if the other 3 players on the court are stellar defenders. Neither Key nor Lauri are good enough defenders to help the team win consistently without a lot of help in that area. Get them a few excellent defenders and yes, they are good enough scorers that you'll win a lot of game. Probably not enough for a ring though.
 
HermanG said:
As we all have heard multiple times, Lauri and Key are one of the best scoring duos in the NBA. However its not just PPG where they excel... its also clutch scoring and efficiency. They actually rank 10th and 11th in points per game if you exclude Obi Toppin and PJ Hall who both have appeared on just 1 clutch game this season.

Here is the full top 11 in points per game in the clutch (min 2 clutch games):

View attachment 19950

Notable things:
- Nobody is touching SGA's volume except Joker. Both are also very efficient. However for whatever reason Joker has a losing clutch record this year. Obviously those two are the main problems and we all know it.
- Out of top 11 guys Lauri has the 3rd best TS% in the clutch (64.4%) losing only to Anthony Edwards (insane 82.1%) and Jokic (73.4%). Keyonte is 6th best with similar percent at 63.4% (SGA and Harden are #4 and #5)
- Out of these top guys Lauri has the 3rd best clutch win% at 66.7% (SGA 73.3% and Coby White 70% ahead of him). Keyonte is 6th again with 58.8% (Cade and Edwards are #4 and #5).

Now what makes this even more interesting is that we have actually played majority of our clutch games against playoff teams. Here are all our clutch game opponents this season:
W: Suns, Celtics, Chicago, Houston, Memphis, Dallas, Detroit, Dallas, Cleveland, Spurs
L: Kings, Blazers, Hawks, Lakers, Lakers, Magic, OKC

So that list has only 6 games against sub .500 teams, and 11 games against above .500 teams. We are 3-3 against lower tier opponents and 7-4 against higher tier opponents.

Now keep in mind what type of supporting cast some of these other guys have especially on the defensive side of the ball. So in case we dont win the lottery (= get a guy who should become the future face of franchise)... could we actually win a playoff series with Lauri and Key as our top 2 closers if we just surrounded them with right type of quality supporting cast?
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100% to answer the question in the OP. Talked about this on the pod that just dropped. Huge development if it holds.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
100% to answer the question in the OP. Talked about this on the pod that just dropped. Huge development if it holds.
Click to expand...
I'm also a believer. Have to go check out the pod.

Key looks like he is a problem with the ball, and we know Lauri is a huge problem without it. Thats actually a pretty sweet pairing in terms of meshing skillsets and I dont know how you can plan to take them both out.

Sure if you got a lock down POA defender who can handle Key alone, then just have help close to Lauri and you solve 70% of your problems. But Key operates so well in PNR these days that I dont know how you take screen assists away also when you are already committing to Lauri?
 
KqWIN said:
Not to be a wet blanket, but I don't really believe in clutch or making decisions around it. But they've sure been good.
Click to expand...
My thoughts in the pod I think were somewhat coherent but TLDR

You want a go to action/player.... alpha type... offensive engine... so that when the game slows down in the clutch or in other times that you have a place to go. I feel like we have that without running an intricate set. I think we have more reliable shot creation in the clutch than what we had with Donovan.

It will need to be tested in important games and the playoffs of course. I don't think its nothing though.
 
LogGrad98 said:
Jokic's losing clutch record is largely because he's been playing with half a team, and he still dragged them to 2nd in the West with 3 of the 5 starters injured, before he himself was injured. The guy is super-human, well on his way to another MVP.
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I dont know about the MVP (especially with his injury) but in my mind he is definitely the best player in the world.

However its worth nothing that he has been the best player for quite a while, but this is the Nuggets playoff resume with Jokic:
2nd round exit
conference finals loss
2nd round exit
1st round exit
Championship
2nd round exit
2nd round exit

So he isnt unbeatable. Far from it.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
My thoughts in the pod I think were somewhat coherent but TLDR

You want a go to action/player.... alpha type... offensive engine... so that when the game slows down in the clutch or in other times that you have a place to go. I feel like we have that without running an intricate set. I think we have more reliable shot creation in the clutch than what we had with Donovan.

It will need to be tested in important games and the playoffs of course. I don't think its nothing though.
Click to expand...

I think clutch strategy is a real thing as the flow of the game is different. I guess what I'm saying is that I don't believe in the clutch gene as much as believe in "the results are random". Teams and players bounce back and forth between clutch and non-clutch all the time and that's just the nature of SSS theater. Ultimately, I think the best expectation for clutch is how you play in 48 minutes and I wouldn't read into it much more than that..

It might be slightly more than nothing, but also not something I make key decisions around. I think being "clutch" can be a trap because you may think you're better than you really are and you might just be chasing something that doesn't really exist in the first place.

Personally, I'd feel better about our team if we were a non-clutch 14 win team with 17 pythagorean wins.
 
KqWIN said:
I think clutch strategy is a real thing as the flow of the game is different. I guess what I'm saying is that I don't believe in the clutch gene as much as believe in "the results are random". Teams and players bounce back and forth between clutch and non-clutch all the time and that's just the nature of SSS theater.

I would say it's slightly more than nothing, but also not something I make key decisions around. I think being "clutch" can be a trap because you may think you're better than you really are and you might just be chasing something that doesn't really exist in the first place.

Personally, I'd feel better about our team if we were a non-clutch 14 win team with 17 pythagorean wins.
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Thats a rather dumb take. Pressure affects performance and some individuals deal with it better than others. Its not a secret science of any kind.

The human element should never be discounted.
 
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