Let me take some time to finally point out why I believe the Jazz will take a major step forward this year and win a significantly greater amount of games than last season. In no particular order...
1) Refs. Recently, someone here on Jazzfanz posted a link (I can't find it) with the number of wrong calls made by refs last year according to the team those calls went against. We were dead last and from what I recall, it wasn't even close. The refs screwed us. Big time. I don't believe it to be some conscious decision on their parts. I just believe that we had really, REALLY bad luck and weren't very respected. General common sense says that luck should turn around. MorEover, I think just having faces like Joe Johnson, George Hill and Boris Diaw will add some much needed respect to our team. WHether we like it or not, names oftentimes get calls, and even if those aren't the guys getting the calls, just having their faces on the bench adds some legitimacy to our team imo. +2 wins
2) Close games. We were awful last year and that's despite having one of the best statistical closers in the league in Hayward. That said, this too should balance out. While we were very unlucky in this regard last year, we should be better this season, perhaps even much better. I recall Kicky saying months ago that over the course of a season (and seasons), these things pretty much balance out (I don't know which thread it was in) and I see it unfolding that way for us this season. That doesn't mean we will be 18-6 in close games. I'm just thinking .500ish or better. If nothing else, the presence of Hill, Johnson and Diaw should really be a calming influence (even if they're on the bench) as games wind down and I think that along with a normal statistical regression helps us win a few more close games. In short, we should be much better here. +3 wins
3) Injuries/Bench Play. We had somewhere around 170 games missed from our top six players last year. That's about 30 games per player. Months ago, I looked up where we ranked as far as games missed go and I want to say we were fifth worst in the entire NBA. As far as top six players go, I'm not exactly sure but I'd have to think we were one of the worst three teams in the league. I see two possible scenarios this year and in both cases, the team performs much, much better. The first scenario is we are banged up almost equally as badly as last season. However, with our off-season acquisitions, we now have depth and can keep on ballin' without some huge hiccup. Hill gets injured? We have Dante. Burks goes down again? We have Joe Johnson. Favors or Lyles or Gobert go down. Diaw can play some meaningful minutes. And we aren't relegated to bringing in Tibor Pleiss, Chris Johnson and any other ******* for major minutes. That's the worst case scenario. The best case is we have minimal injuries and our 9-10 man rotation is one of the best in the NBA and we now have legit talent on the floor for 48 minutes a night. This should be our biggest aide in improving this season. Talent and depth and (hopefully) fewer injuries. +4 wins
4) Organic growth. Hayward has gotten better every season. He had little to work with last year (due to other's injuries) and still came out as an elite closer at end of games on offense, the #1 ranked small forward defensively (I forget which metric was used here), and was statistically very strong on offense in most ways. Add in what should be a huge leap for Exum (go back and watch SL last August) and at least small improvements in their games from Hood and Lyles and I like the upside of our guys. Then, by all accounts, Favos has worked his *** off, not settling for being a 16.5/8.5 guy and should be a monster this year. Basically, we were the second youngest team in the league last year and knowing that, have a ton of room for organic growth. That's not say I think all of our guys are going to max their potential let alone do so this season. But they should definitely get better. Most of them anyway. +2 wins
5) Vet presences. We needed this. We had basically no one (Booker? Ingles?) to lead, no one to truly hold one another accountable because they'll be listened, no one to teach, etcetera. Johnson, Hill and Diaw should be huge in this way now. + 1 win
That brings us to 52 wins and quite frankly, I think we should be much, much better as far as #2, #3 and #4 go. I see our absolute basement (more injuries, suck in close games again, refs suck again) at about 44 games. I see our absolute ceiling (Rudy is old Rudy and we are an elite defense) at about 61 wins. I see everything falling somewhere in the middle and us getting between 50-54 wins. My guess is 51.
