Deron Teasing AJ

[vslice02]

Mentioned this in the chat last night but it's not fair to expect Al to shoot as high of a percentage as Boozer because Boozer's FG% was truly remarkable. His 54.4% is 2nd-all time in Jazz history (behind AD) and shot over 56% twice in his 6 seasons here (also while averging 20 ppg) - something Karl Malone only did twice. Boozer also shot over 60% at Duke and 53% in Cleveland. For all his "faults" that Jaz fans love to loathe Boozer for - he could put the ball in the hoop at an extremely efficient rate.

Al's been a 49-50% everywhere's he's been - something I expected to increase by 1-2 percentage points in Utah. Considering the fact this is basically the first time Al ever played in a motion offense - no college experience and in Minnesota they often ran iso's for him on the block - I think Al's FG% will go up (and his FT% go down). Basketball's about instincts and muscle-memory and Al's still thinking too much to be 100% comfortable out there. He misses some painfully easy shots - but I'm still thinking sooner or later a few more of those will start to drop.

Also, Hornacek may not have been comfortable in our offense immediately after the trade but his shooting percentages never slipped. Truly great high-percentage shooters will be high-percentage shooters regardless of the offense. Al may not be that - but he's still pretty big and still pretty good. He should only improve as the season progresses - which to me is kind of exciting.

 

[franklin]

Nice post vslice. If I'm reading you correctly, you seem to think the Jazz offense has much to do with the shooting % of the 4? Why is this? I can understand more outside shots bringing an average down (i.e. Garnett and Duncan vs. Shaq and McHale, or 50 % vs 58-60%). I guess I'm expecting AJ to take more high % low post shots than either Boozer or Malone did. After all, he was advertised as possibly the best low post player in the league. Either deep post (Shaq, Howard), easy slashing buckets (Odom this year, Brewer) or freakish shooting (Boozer, Nowitzki this year) is where the high % really comes from. Deep post is consistently the group with the majority of high % shooters who get a lot of looks. There are always the 10 point guys who are getting easy layups, but they don't get enough looks, feed off the better players, and usually can't keep it up for an entire season (Odom and Nowitzki both average much lower career %'s than they have put up so far this year).

My question is why cannot an AJ in Utah's system achieve a high % that forward-centers elsewhere can?

 

[Goodluckchuck]

I still say it's the system. Reason for that is because of the constant motion. He looks like he thinks too much. Lets not forget that his hand is also bothering him. Could it be so much so that it hurts when he shoots? Bottom line is he is head and shoulders above Booz on the defensive side of the ball. I will live with the 5 or so less points a game if we have someone who doesn't shy away on defense.

 

[vslice02]

Nice post vslice. If I'm reading you correctly, you seem to think the Jazz offense has much to do with the shooting % of the 4? Why is this?

My question is why cannot an AJ in Utah's system achieve a high % that forward-centers elsewhere can?

Alot of little factors but to be general: 1) Al has missed some easy shots 2) Al hasn't used the system to get himself easy shots yet.

1) In my previous post I mentioned Al shoots a respectable but not great percentage. Everywhere he's been that's been the case. Since everything he shoots is 15-feet and in - most of his attempts are good looks but they just miss sometimes. Improving that comes down on how hard he's willing to work - which I think he will be with a winning franchise.

Someone mentioned his hand injury (which he hurt in the next-to-last preseason game against the Lakers) and we should note Al shot 36-63 (57%) in the first 6 preseason games and 9-24 (38%) in the final 2.


2) I thought his FG% would increase because Al would be getting easier shots in our offense. A staple of Jazz basketball is our cross-screen action on postups - guard on big - where Malone and Boozer got a ton of easy shots from players like Hornacek and Brewer setting hard picks on their men. Then it's just a catch and layup (Boozer also would shoot that little 8-foot fallaway in the lane that he hit at an extremely high-percentage). I remember a 3-pt play Al got in Charlotte off a great feed from AK (who's probably the best at making those post-entry passes) but that seemed to be a rare instance. With time - he should be able to catch it at 6-feet and shoot an uncontested right-hand jump hook.

The other primary set he could score easily is screen-roll, and when Al and Deron run side pick-and-roll, left-handed dunks by Boozer are now 15-foot baseline jumpers for Al. I remember Deron got upset with him in the Toronto game when he didn't roll. Again, I think this will come in time because Al has very limited experience running pick-and-rolls. No college experience for Al is actually pretty big because in our system we rely on guys who have great fundlementals.

Al's improved his passing and his 15-footer as the season's progressed, so I see no reason why he shouldn't improve his movement on our offense.

 

[Darkwing Duck]

I don't see why his FT% would drop by looking at him. I know the historical numbers say another story, but he's got an excellent free throw motion. It's easily repeatable, too, which locks him into the correct shooting motion. Maybe being in better shape has contributed to a better percentage because he's not gulping air while at the line, leading to breakdowns in the free throw. That stroke is easily 80%.

 

[vslice02]

I don't see why his FT% would drop by looking at him. I know the historical numbers say another story, but he's got an excellent free throw motion. It's easily repeatable, too, which locks him into the correct shooting motion. Maybe being in better shape has contributed to a better percentage because he's not gulping air while at the line, leading to breakdowns in the free throw. That stroke is easily 80%.

Al's 85% FT percentage is exceptional. The only reason I would predict it to slightly decline is, regardless of form, historically you virtually never see an established player increase their FT% by over 17% (68.2%-85.1%) in leaping from a mediocre to expecitonal FT shooter in just 1 year. Usually you see incremental increases over several seasons (like a Karl Malone or Deron Williams).

A good example is Paul Millsap - a career 69% FT shooter - began the year 62-78 (79%) and has shot 25-42 (60%) since - giving him a 73% clip that's about what you would expect. Unless you're a great shooter like a Hornacek or Reggie Miller, FT's shooting can also be streaky. We see it each year w/Deron and AK - they'll always go through hot stretches from the FT line and then have a few games where they really struggle - particalarly on the front-end.

 

[Darkwing Duck]

Al's 85% FT percentage is exceptional. The only reason I would predict it to slightly decline is, regardless of form, historically you virtually never see an established player increase their FT% by over 17% (68.2%-85.1%) in leaping from a mediocre to expecitonal FT shooter in just 1 year. Usually you see incremental increases over several seasons (like a Karl Malone or Deron Williams).

A good example is Paul Millsap - a career 69% FT shooter - began the year 62-78 (79%) and has shot 25-42 (60%) since - giving him a 73% clip that's about what you would expect. Unless you're a great shooter like a Hornacek or Reggie Miller, FT's shooting can also be streaky. We see it each year w/Deron and AK - they'll always go through hot stretches from the FT line and then have a few games where they really struggle - particalarly on the front-end.

Well, I think Jefferson's form on free throws is better than AK and Williams. Hard to repeat what AK does and seems to be kind of a fling rather than a shot. Deron's is way too flat and sharp a shot meaning he has a smaller window to make the shot. I'm constantly surprised he's over 80 percent. The good thing, though, is that he repeats the same thing over and over. Any bad stroke can work if you do it perfectly every time.