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Dispelling some myths about this off-season

I think someone that compares to what Nerd is saying might be a Trevor Ariza. Ended up in Houston makes just under 6 mil a year and he put up fairly similar numbers. You could argue he scored more points but he was shooting 13.9 attempts per game @ .394% for 14.9 ppg vs Wes at 6.9 attempts per game @ .483% for 9.4ppg. He does have an obvious rebounding advantage and you can blame that on either height or the fact that Wes was rebounding behind some good rebounders in Memo, Milsap, Booz, and AK. Anyway point is Should Wes get what Ariza got or is Ariza being overpaid?
1. Ariza won a championship.
2. Ariza is an athletic, long-armed freak.

Stats only tell a part of the story, try to remember that.

If Matthews signs something at $4 mil per, let the dude walk. This organization has to reign in it's over-paying of role-players. That's why this team is in a financial mess (AK is a glorified role player and always has been, Memo is a pure role-player, Harpring was).
 
Negative? You dont say? After reading that Im sure gullible people were looking for their gun.

To the contrary, the "gullible" people will hold out hope for this off-season. When the regular season rolls around and we've got the same squad as last year (+/- Boozer or Korver), they'll insist, with a little help from subtle KOC statements, that we've got something in the works for a deal toward the deadline. As the deadline comes and goes, we'll be so ecstatic about competing for a playoff spot that we'll hardly realize our roster hasn't changed in four years.

where i disagree with infection is that AK is just "bad salary." AK is overpaid, there's no question about that. but "bad salary" can't impact a game in that many ways. "bad salary" is tmac earning 23M to sit behind the bench in an armani.

Not quite something I said.

inf, you're wrong here. S&T isn't as complex as you think. i still think it's a long-shot option in boozer's specific case given the math involved (more on that in a sec), but you treat it like you need a team of army engineers to make it work. S&Ts happen.

No, a sign-and-trade isn't as complex as stated, but that will surely be the PR spin, followed by a lot of people repeating as much on these forums.

the math: the S&T option generally works because it benefits everybody. player gets more money, new team gets a player they couldn't have gotten otherwise, old team gets an asset. but those first two are only true if you're talking about a max deal. if you're talking about a max deal, the old team can do max years and 10.5% raises, taking a contract starting at 16M to a much higher total than if there's one less year and 8% raises. but if the player isn't going to command a max salary anyway, then the new team can offset that by just raising the first year salary. in other words, if team X wants to surpass the jazz's offer of a deal starting at 10M with max raises, they'll just offer 12M and get him without surrendering any assets.

I think my original point wasn't the feasibility of a sign-and-trade, but rather that we've narrowed it down to simply "re-sign or walk".

so what does all that mean? boozer's not going to get the max, so the bulls, nets, knicks and heat wouldn't need to give anything up to offer him a similar contract to what the jazz could offer with bird rights. if another team wanted him that DIDN'T have the cap space, then they'd have to explore sign and trade scenarios.

at the end of the day, though, likeliest scenario is that he re-signs or he walks.

Exactly.

not a myth. we'll have to use a decent portion of it to retain matthews. i could make the case that they shouldn't use more than about 3M of it on him, but the fact is, they'll use it, or they'll lose matthews. but you're right, they won't use it to find a quality free agent from another team.

I should have been more specific to emphasize that the mid-level exception will not be used to sign a free agent from another team, which is precisely correct.

i threw up a little when you made the jarron collins reference. but ya, not a lot of quick fixes here. if our big man picture looks drastically different next year, it will be because of internal improvement.

True, but I was serious about Collins.

also false. look, you're not going to get an allstar w/ trade exceptions, but a lot of teams will find themselves in similar positions to where the jazz were at last year: if we could only get rid of player X, we'll lessen our tax blow, and we'd be willing to surrender these assets to do it. obviously a lot depends on the other pieces in our own salary puzzle, but i guarantee you that any over-the-tax team with guys in that 4-6M salary range will make multiple calls to KOC next season

I just don't see us taking back salary whether it's talented or not. I don't believe we could be offered anything that would improve our competitiveness enough to even have it be a wash financially. We're just trying to weather the storm and our current squad gives us a good shot at making the playoffs, which from a financial perspective is good enough.
 
I think someone that compares to what Nerd is saying might be a Trevor Ariza. Ended up in Houston makes just under 6 mil a year and he put up fairly similar numbers. You could argue he scored more points but he was shooting 13.9 attempts per game @ .394% for 14.9 ppg vs Wes at 6.9 attempts per game @ .483% for 9.4ppg. He does have an obvious rebounding advantage and you can blame that on either height or the fact that Wes was rebounding behind some good rebounders in Memo, Milsap, Booz, and AK. Anyway point is Should Wes get what Ariza got or is Ariza being overpaid?

i'm not talking about ariza and artest. i'm talking about role players who contributed meaningfully to title teams despite some limits to their physical tools: posey, bowen, fisher, that type of guy. if we're banking our title hopes on WM playing an ariza/artest type of role, we'll continue to dwell in mediocrity.
 
i'm not saying he WON'T... i'm saying he SHOULDN'T.

i'm working on a jazzbros.com post about this, but in a nutshell: guys who played that role for championship teams very rarely made the kind of money you're talking about. we can't pay him the full MLE (6Mish) and still have a salary construct that allows us to assemble a title-contending team.

This. It's Basic Math and common sense really.
 
inf, sounds like we mostly agree here, we're just talking about it differently.

one thing about the S&T plausibility... apparently booz has said his top priority is a 6-yr deal (not surprising since players will be looking for max length knowing that terms of the next CBA will probably go down). if that's truly his top priority, then the only ways he can get what he wants is by staying or working a S&T. that might change the "stay or walk for nothing" dynamic.
 
If I'm KOC I'm calling Mathews on July 1 and making an offer. I know there is some danger there, and its not the way the jazz usually operate. But if the jazz sit and wait for Mathews to get offers (Like they did with CJ and Milsap) mathews could get priced right out of Utah.

Multiple teams have cleared space for the FA shopping spree. Their fans have been holding out hope and are watching anxioulsy-- If a team can't land LeBron, wade, Amare or Bosh then they start throwing money around and a young player with potential is a better sell to angry/disappointed fans than an old has been.

Last year Portland missed on Turkelot then shocked the jazz by offering Mislap a big contract. I wouldn't bother calling Boozer on June 30, @ 10pm mtn. time. I'd call mathews, fes and a MLE. The longer the jazz wait, the more it will cost.
 
maybe it's just me, but i don't think people are going to blow the doors off the hinges to get to matthews at 10:01 MDT on wednesday. he got a lot of pub for his nice season, but i don't think he's going to command ridiculous sums of cash, especially since teams tend to shy away from tying up their money for 7 days on a guy they know will get matched anyway.
 
The only thing the Jazz have to do with Matthews is not bid against themselves. They should tender him and let the market decide. This isn't about what he's "worth." It's about NBA economics. Anthony Morrow had more value than Matthews does right now and he was in the same boat. He signed for the minimum. At the end of the FA period if the Jazz wanted to throw him a bone and lock him in for 2/3 years with an offer, I wouldn't care as long as the maximum salary did not exceed 2 million in any one given year. The idea that Matthews is worth more than that is lunacy to me (relative to NBA finances.)
 
Stop thinking of AK's expiring contract as an assett. The market for expiring contracts has shifted from a sellers market to a buyers market. Now teams are paying to have other teams absorb the expiring.

If the Jazz had to 'pay' OKC a Eric Maynor in order to have OKC absorb a partially insurred 6million dollar contract, what is it going to cost the jazz to unload AK's 17 mill?

That does not represent a change in the market. It's ateam A taking advantage of the need for team B to save money. Utah was team B last year, but we've been team A in the past (Keon Clark, for example).
 
That does not represent a change in the market. It's ateam A taking advantage of the need for team B to save money. Utah was team B last year, but we've been team A in the past (Keon Clark, for example).

Exactly.
If we re-sign Boozer, we become team B, having to dump AK's salary. If we clear off Booz and Korver, and only re-sign Matthews and Fes, we become Team A since we'll be pretty near the tax threshold. We could afford to take back long-term contracts. And we'd be in the driver's seat, just like Houston was with NY. I'm not saying we get the same value; we won't. There aren't the same qualiyt of FA's availabe in 2011. But some teams will want to clear salaries to get under the tax limit. KOC just needs to sit back, have a couple of teams call, and then let leak what they're offering so a bidding war ensues.
 
Exactly.
If we re-sign Boozer, we become team B, having to dump AK's salary. If we clear off Booz and Korver, and only re-sign Matthews and Fes, we become Team A since we'll be pretty near the tax threshold. We could afford to take back long-term contracts. And we'd be in the driver's seat, just like Houston was with NY. I'm not saying we get the same value; we won't. There aren't the same qualiyt of FA's availabe in 2011. But some teams will want to clear salaries to get under the tax limit. KOC just needs to sit back, have a couple of teams call, and then let leak what they're offering so a bidding war ensues.
If the Jazz don't re-sign Boozer, I don't think that they weill still be in a position to be Team A unless Greg Miller is openly intending to leap into luxury tax territory. I think that he'll do it reluctantly, for example to keep Boozer, but not if he can avoid it.

I think that some people are overestimating the ease with which Utah can unload AK. These are different times, and few teams are under the cap. Also, Utah is probably reluctant to unload AK because with Millsap on the team, AK is arguably as valuable as Boozer is, especially if Kiri can play some 3 and some 4 (and is healthy). Given the difficulty to sign impact FAs, and given that there is a financial ceiling at some point above the cap, I am perfectly content with Utah going into the season with Millsap, AK, and Koufos/Okur manning minutes at the 4, Fes/Koufos/Okur hitting the 5, and WM, CJ, GH, and AK sharing minutes at the 2/3. Maybe they sign another journeyman big for good measure, but it's doubtful that they can find anyone on the market worth any meaningful impact. (They could use Cousins.)

I continue to believe that Boozer's scoring and rebounding can be made up; Millsap went a long way to replacing it last year, with better defense filling in the gap. The trend has been consistent: Boozer has been a net liability on the court for the past couple of years (-2.2 on-court/off-court point differential in 2009-2010; -5.9 in 2008-2009, albeit with injuries). Millsap, even with increased starter/regular rotation minutes, has not.
https://www.82games.com/0910/0910UTA.HTM
https://www.82games.com/0809/0809UTA.HTM
 
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