David Hume
Well-Known Member
Subjective and objective probability are two different things.
Do you want the Jazz to win their last game against the Wolves?
- Thread starter SoberasHotRod
- Start date
That's true, this is just my thought process, that didn't really lead to anywhere, FWIW. If someone else has a different opinion on probabilities I won't argue.
Do I have this right?:
- If Minny loses 3 straight games they're highly motivated and heavily favored to win (including against us, the worst team in the league, one that hasn't shown any signs of legitimate life for several weeks), then their pick for us will be a lottery pick (#14), and our Flagg odds will increase to 14.7% chance (from 14%), and our top 4 odds will increase from 52.1% to 55.5%.
- If we beat them but they win one of their play-in games, their pick will be anywhere from 18 to 21, depending on the last day's games and tiebreakers
- If they beat us, then their pick is anywhere from 20 to 24, again depending on final game and tiebreakers
That sounds about right, although I haven't looked that closely at tie breaker scenarios.
Looks like the Jazz FO doesn't agree with the majority of us. Everyone is out tomorrow.
This is all about odds. There is a 0% chance they miss the playoffs if they win, basically.
I understand, but your giving up odds if you win?
If you are tied with the Wizards for worst record, then there is some kind of tie breaker based on record, or is it a coin flip? Either way, there is something that the Jazz are potentially giving up by winning.
Winning has 0 impact on the team’s odds at top-4.
OK, let's look at this logically:
And the actual odds for each pick: If we end up tied, there is a 50% chance of either #1 or 2 on this.
Seed 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
1 14.00% 13.42% 12.75% 11.97% 47.86% - - - - - - - - -
2 14.00% 13.42% 12.75% 11.97% 27.84% 20.02% - - - - - - - -
So, as someone else said, the only difference on this side is that if we're tied, we have a 10% chance of moving down to #6. If the Wizard are in last, that's a 20% chance.
If the Timberwolves lose, then there is a 25% chance (just going on straight W/L odds, not calculating them) that they will be in the lottery, but probably at the #14. That would give them the following chances:
14 5 0.50% 0.56% 0.63% 0.72% - - - - - - - - - 97.59%
To me, a 25% chance of moving a garbage pick to a 2.5% chance of a higher pick... it's just not worth it. I mean, unless it pans out, in which case, wow...
So, I say we should lose it.
| Jazz win | Jazz lose | |
| Wizards win | Tied for last place | Jazz have sole possession of last place |
| Wizards lose | Wizards have sole possession of last place | Tied for last place |
And the actual odds for each pick: If we end up tied, there is a 50% chance of either #1 or 2 on this.
Seed 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
1 14.00% 13.42% 12.75% 11.97% 47.86% - - - - - - - - -
2 14.00% 13.42% 12.75% 11.97% 27.84% 20.02% - - - - - - - -
So, as someone else said, the only difference on this side is that if we're tied, we have a 10% chance of moving down to #6. If the Wizard are in last, that's a 20% chance.
If the Timberwolves lose, then there is a 25% chance (just going on straight W/L odds, not calculating them) that they will be in the lottery, but probably at the #14. That would give them the following chances:
14 5 0.50% 0.56% 0.63% 0.72% - - - - - - - - - 97.59%
To me, a 25% chance of moving a garbage pick to a 2.5% chance of a higher pick... it's just not worth it. I mean, unless it pans out, in which case, wow...
So, I say we should lose it.
The Jazz Wonderbra
Well-Known Member
Going from a 10% chance at 6th to a 20% chance at sixth in a draft that imho is 4 deep is reason enough to lose.