Do you want the Jazz to win their last game against the Wolves?

[gandalfe]

Winning has 0 impact on the team’s odds at top-4.

Except that you then have the chance of the T-wolves pick hitting. It's a very slim chance, but it's there.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

With the way the mocks are now, there are two guys (Fleming and Beringer) thought to available at 20, I have in the lottery, so I wouldn't be too pressed about 14 vs 20.

 

[jom2003]

I don't believe this at all. There is no way ace or vj drop to 6th. You may have an argument about the talent drop off at 5 or 6 but I believe the talent drop off starts heavily at 6. A lot of people don't like Johnson but he will definitely fit in on any team that takes him. If the jazz fall to 6th, it would be a devastating season overall

We aren't scouting experts by any means but just looking at the websites/experts that do scouting for a living, I don't think any of them agree on the notion of VJ/Ace/Tre being ranked in consensus top 5 above everyone not named Flagg or Harper. Not yet at least.


View: https://youtu.be/vy3_GMcIYTg?si=XDwz2rn4Ip-qfOMf

 

[jazznik]

People put too much trust in the experts declaring a draft four-deep or five-deep. The experts are always wrong. You can google and see that there was an expert consensus that Fultz is the number one pick and that Josh Jackson is a tip-5 pick - and that in the draft were Mitchell was drafted at 13, Adebayo at 14, Markkanen at 7 and Jarred Allen at 22. And that is true pretty much for every draft.

 

[idiot]

Going from a 10% chance at 6th to a 20% chance at sixth in a draft that imho is 4 deep is reason enough to lose.

If the draft is really 4 deep (and the difference between 5 & 6 is relatively small), that would be reason to win, not to lose.

The odds of a top-4 draft choice don't change no matter what happens tomorrow. EDIT: other than what @gandalfe said a few posts above. (So the better way to say it is we can't increase our odds of top 4 by losing tomorrow.)

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

People put too much trust in the experts declaring a draft four-deep or five-deep. The experts are always wrong. You can google and see that there was an expert consensus that Fultz is the number one pick and that Josh Jackson is a tip-5 pick - and that in the draft were Mitchell was drafted at 13, Adebayo at 14, Markkanen at 7 and Jarred Allen at 22. And that is true pretty much for every draft.

Sure, but you are picking in a landmine when you draft later vs getting more of a sure thing higher.

 

[jazznik]

Sure, but you are picking in a landmine when you draft later vs getting more of a sure thing higher.

That's true but it is a totally different issue than drafting 5th "in a draft that imho is 4 deep".

 

[infection]

My pet theory is that the league has told the Jazz they'll receive a top-4 pick, which is why the Jazz didn't tank the Portland game and why Ryan said on the broadcast last night that the "Jazz are due to move up in the draft."

But that's probably me over-reacting.

That’s a good theory as far as making me feel good. Unfortunately, it probably loses out to the theory that Ryan is exercising the Quin Snyder theorem, which is to say someone with really good knowledge and some level of sophistication (in Ryan’s case, developing Qualtrics) but somehow inexplicably appealing to the gambler’s fallacy (in Quin’s case believing that Terrence Mann can’t outshoot his season numbers on wide-open threes).

 

[fishonjazz]

People put too much trust in the experts declaring a draft four-deep or five-deep. The experts are always wrong. You can google and see that there was an expert consensus that Fultz is the number one pick and that Josh Jackson is a tip-5 pick - and that in the draft were Mitchell was drafted at 13, Adebayo at 14, Markkanen at 7 and Jarred Allen at 22. And that is true pretty much for every draft.

Oh wow that is so enlightening. I thought that they got every player right every year. Never any busts or diamonds in the rough.

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[NUMBERICA]

Looks like the Jazz FO doesn't agree with the majority of us. Everyone is out tomorrow.

They can kiss my ***.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Looks like the Jazz FO doesn't agree with the majority of us. Everyone is out tomorrow.

Think they have to committ to the bit more than anything. If everyone is just suddenly healthy that kind of signals you've been lying the whole time.

 

[The Jazz Wonderbra]

If the draft is really 4 deep (and the difference between 5 & 6 is relatively small), that would be reason to win, not to lose.

The odds of a top-4 draft choice don't change no matter what happens tomorrow. EDIT: other than what @gandalfe said a few posts above. (So the better way to say it is we can't increase our odds of top 4 by losing tomorrow.)

I keep forgetting that there are now 4 lottery spots available and not 3.