Does Lauri Get Traded?

[NUMBERICA]

I would estimate that with our current roster we would be in the 7-10th worst record by the trade deadline and then we get really disgusting and get to 5th-6th. Things can change between now and the start of the season, but this is my current prediction.

This has me thinking... what if it's so obvious that the Jazz are trying to tank that teams hold back on their best offers for Lauri at the deadline? Will be hard to get as disgusting as needed (again) and I'd rather not have to cram tanking to only get to 5th or 6th.

 

[rippimpc]

Implicit value is added to any trade by virtue of improving odds of a higher pick.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

This has me thinking... what if it's so obvious that the Jazz are trying to tank that teams hold back on their best offers for Lauri at the deadline? Will be hard to get as disgusting as needed (again) and I'd rather not have to cram tanking to only get to 5th or 6th.

We won 31 games last year while getting absolutely disgusting after the break. We will not be able to cram any harder than we did last year.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Implicit value is added to any trade by virtue of improving odds of a higher pick.

Yes

 

[sip]

Does Portland currently have anyone on their team worth 3+ picks and 3+ swaps?

FWIW, I'm not sure I would say we are clearly better, but the reason we are probably better is Lauri.

Do we? I don't think Lauri has that value.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Yeah we have a lot of young prospects some of which look like they will be NBA players. We find a guy and we might see a similar turnaround Magic had within few years of that.

I'd say minimum 2-3 years being bad, but that depends on draft luck.

The average time a team misses the playoffs during a rebuild is 4-5 years, it's very rare for a team to miss the playoffs for more than 6-7 years in a row. We have already missed for 2, so missing another 2-3 years would be normal and anything more would be longer than expected.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

This has me thinking... what if it's so obvious that the Jazz are trying to tank that teams hold back on their best offers for Lauri at the deadline? Will be hard to get as disgusting as needed (again) and I'd rather not have to cram tanking to only get to 5th or 6th.

I think it's possible that's exactly what happens next year. I think you have to ask yourself would you prefer really good odds at a top 5 pick and no Lauri or a really good odds at a top 7 pick and have Lauri. That's kind of what it comes down to for me.

 

[KqWIN]

If we are actually a 7-10 team and not a 3-6 team, then there's no question. Have to trade Lauri. Lauri + tank isn't viable.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Do we? I don't think Lauri has that value.

You don't think he has the value of 3+ picks and 3+ swaps? That's already pretty much been confirmed, so I don't think that's what you mean.

If you don't think he makes a huge difference to winning and losing games, I disagree. He makes everyone around him better by the gravity he demands on offense and by being one of our better defenders (which isn't saying much).

 

[stitches]

Every day I come online I'm shocked there are 10 new pages of posts in this thread with practically 0 new reports on potential trade. Salute to all of you! Productive bunch!

 

[SoberasHotRod]

If we are actually a 7-10 team and not a 3-6 team, then there's no question. Have to trade Lauri. Lauri + tank isn't viable.

I'm pretty sure we can get to a bottom 6 team with Lauri, but it will require a massive post all star tank job (similar to this year). I don't think this year's team is capable of the type of run we had last December/January and so we'll be further ahead when we go all in to tank.

 

[Jaanipoeg]

How is Portland clearly worse? I'm looking forward to your reasoning because I don't see it.

I guess it's in the eye of the beholder, I get someone else being higher on them, but I am skeptical. Grant/Ayton both feel like players very open to missing 30+ games a year, have consistently, and I just don't consider them floor raisers. I just don't think Simons is a winning player. Maybe Sharpe and Scoot both really pop this year, but same can be said about George/Kessler/etc.

And the biggest reason is I just think Hardy is a much better coach than Billups. In back to back seasons he's had ragtag "teardowns" playing .500 ball half way through the year. But yeah, you can talk yourself into anything and while they seem clearly worse to me I get the points you can talk yourself into

 

[Elizah Huge]

If we are actually a 7-10 team and not a 3-6 team, then there's no question. Have to trade Lauri. Lauri + tank isn't viable.

Which is why I think we will trade him.

 

[KqWIN]

I'm pretty sure we can get to a bottom 6 team with Lauri, but it will require a massive post all star tank job (similar to this year). I don't think this year's team is capable of the type of run we had last December/January and so we'll be further ahead when we go all in to tank.

I can't see a scenario where we are less motivated to do the same thing as last year, which is why I think we end up higher than 7-10. That requirement of tanking like last year is a certainty in my eyes.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Do we? I don't think Lauri has that value.

The Kings almost surely offered it before they did the Derozan deal.

 

[HermanG]

I guess it's in the eye of the beholder, I get someone else being higher on them, but I am skeptical. Grant/Ayton both feel like players very open to missing 30+ games a year, have consistently, and I just don't consider them floor raisers. I just don't think Simons is a winning player. Maybe Sharpe and Scoot both really pop this year, but same can be said about George/Kessler/etc.

And the biggest reason is I just think Hardy is a much better coach than Billups. In back to back seasons he's had ragtag "teardowns" playing .500 ball half way through the year. But yeah, you can talk yourself into anything and while they seem clearly worse to me I get the points you can talk yourself into

That dudes shtick is the young players on any team other than the Jazz. Also loves to throw shade and sneaky hate on Lauri and Hardy.

Jerami Grant is their best player, so yeah saying they will be better than us is just him projecting development there and not here.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I can't see a scenario where we are less motivated to do the same thing as last year, which is why I think we end up higher than 7-10. That requirement of tanking like last year is a certainty in my eyes.

Feels like we're splitting hairs here. I'm not interested in going too much deeper until we know what our full team looks like.

I'll just say that Fontecchio, Olynyk, and Dunn were 3 of our 4 best net rating players last year.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I guess it's in the eye of the beholder, I get someone else being higher on them, but I am skeptical. Grant/Ayton both feel like players very open to missing 30+ games a year, have consistently, and I just don't consider them floor raisers. I just don't think Simons is a winning player. Maybe Sharpe and Scoot both really pop this year, but same can be said about George/Kessler/etc.

And the biggest reason is I just think Hardy is a much better coach than Billups. In back to back seasons he's had ragtag "teardowns" playing .500 ball half way through the year. But yeah, you can talk yourself into anything and while they seem clearly worse to me I get the points you can talk yourself into

Scoot was horrid last year and is an on ball guy. Its a tremendous recipe for being bad. I also think they move Grant at some point. Ayton is a loser. Deni is the key there if they end up being good.

 

[KqWIN]

We're going through our team worrying about Bazley and Eubanks ruining the tank. Have that same optimistic eye towards every team and suddenly no one can tank. Vets+depth is what wins games during the RS, that is the difference between this year and 22. 22 roster was littered with vets and depth, this roster is filled with inexperienced kids. Biggest case against the Jazz is Lauri and Sexton, both of which can be solved with divine intervention. That's all I'm saying.

 

[Step-Back Lauri]

No new tweets. I think next time we'll see more is in few weeks, when the R+E comes closer. I'm guessing no serious trade talks until the trade window in 2025. Unless Warriors get desperate to go all in.