Does Lauri Get Traded?

[Handlogten's Heros]

Sir you must be in a white heat of anger over this tanking talk because I said together, which would make them roughly 4 a piece which would be what Walker was last year, and we all probably assume Walker will be better than last year...

My bad. Yeah I don't know that I would move either of them by the deadline or whatevs... it would be a little late for that anyway if they were really providing that much value on top of what the other guys bring. Dunn was a 2 WS guy and KO a 3 win share guy. So replace 8 win shares for half a season on top of Lauri and others then you'd already be effed in the tank race so best to keep those guys as they are showing more promise.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It's extremely flawed when you're trying to use it to predict what their WS will be on a team full of rookies and sophomores, yes.

its not... you don't know how good they will or won't be. You don't know how much they will or won't play.

I like how 32% is the number I got to by being cartoonishly generous, and you immediately took it as fact when it's probably closer to half-that value with more realistic %'s.. And that was only the odds of the player being drafted with our theoretical 4th-5th pick being a lot better than the guy we draft with a 9th-10th pick.

If you change that to instead be the odds of the Jazz drafting a player with the 4th-5th pick that "changes the trajectory of the franchise", which by that I assume you mean a superstar, then we're really getting small.

20% (Going to be more realistic now): Kessler by himself improving our win total enough to move us from 4th-5th worst to 9th-10th worst
79.8%: The Jazz not jumping up in the lottery
20% (Probably being generous, but let's just boost it for the hell of it): The Jazz not drafting a superstar in the 9th-10th spot, whereas they would have drafted a superstar with the 4th-5th pick.

20% x 79.8% x 20% = 3.2%

Trade Walker for that 3.2% boost.

Dude that's your fault. You picked the numbers and then are like "hey that's not fair those numbers suck!!!"

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Also the teams we are in the tank race are also playing young players and rookies etc. lol... they just don't have the AS player, the rim protecting center, and the efficient guard scorer.

 

[MTS]

its not... you don't know how good they will or won't be. You don't know how much they will or won't play.

If the Jazz are trying to lose, they will be playing plenty. I don't think you need to worry about that. If they're really good to the point where we are 9th-10th worst, then that's fantastic, because it means we nailed those picks.

Dude that's your fault. You picked the numbers and then are like "hey that's not fair those numbers suck!!!"

lol

I literally told you they were extremely generous in that very same post, to show how silly you were being over acting like it was a guaranteed thing, when the reality is it's miniscule. Go apply your own percentages and see what you come up with.

 

[TheStormofWar]

"Golden State has an aggressive trade package..."

The package:

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If the Jazz are trying to lose, they will be playing plenty. I don't think you need to worry about that. If they're really good to the point where we are 9th-10th worst, then that's fantastic, because it means we nailed those picks.

You don't understand how "trying to lose" works apparently. The coach will play the players he thinks help him win... the more of those he has the further the rookies and sophs are from playing. Rookies especially will have to be clearly better than the vets to play.

lol

I literally told you they were extremely generous in that very same post, to show how silly you were being over acting like it was a guaranteed thing, when the reality is it's miniscule. Go apply your own percentages and see what you come up with.

So you pull some numbers out of your *** and I pull some numbers out of my *** and then its all good. LOL you are complaining about me accepting your numbers... don't put em out there if you want some gotcha.

Say its somewhere between 3% and 30%. It is still a benefit to moving Walker (and we are getting value for him in the trade... stated that a bunch). What are the chances Walker's value actually declines this year... not cuz he sucks but just doesn't show improvement. His value goes down by what... 50%. His contract is halved... so his value likely at least halved. Getting a reasonable return for him now and adding on 3% or 33% chance to getting an all star on top of it... I will take that.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Also apply the percentage it's the 2014 draft class all over again...

 

[MTS]

You don't understand how "trying to lose" works apparently. The coach will play the players he thinks help him win... the more of those he has the further the rookies and sophs are from playing. Rookies especially will have to be clearly better than the vets to play.

Yeah, explains why all the young players got no burn post ASB last year once the Jazz decided they wanted to start losing.

Wait.

So you pull some numbers out of your *** and I pull some numbers out of my *** and then its all good. LOL you are complaining about me accepting your numbers... don't put em out there if you want some gotcha.

I mean, I told you they were very generous in that very same post. If I knew I was talking to somebody who was going to be willfully obtuse about it, I would have just gone with the more realistic numbers from the start. That's my bad.

Say its somewhere between 3% and 30%. It is still a benefit to moving Walker (and we are getting value for him in the trade... stated that a bunch). What are the chances Walker's value actually declines this year... not cuz he sucks but just doesn't show improvement. His value goes down by what... 50%. His contract is halved... so his value likely at least halved. Getting a reasonable return for him now and adding on 3% or 33% chance to getting an all star on top of it... I will take that.

The 30% ceiling you're citing was assuming the player we get with the 4th-5th pick is a lot better than the player we get with the 9th-10th pick. It's not the odds of getting a star at 4th/5th compared to a non all-star at 9th/10th. The number goes much lower when you change that variable, as I did in my previous post to get to the 3.2% number. If you want to go back to the cartoonishly generous assumption that Walker Kessler has a 50/50 chance of single-handedly dragging us from 4th-5th to 9th-10th, then the 3.2% still only changes to 8.0%.

And again, to make it very clear so that you don't make the same mistake as before and try to claim it's 8%, it isn't. It's 8% if we're being cartoonishly generous, and most like somewhere closer to 3.2%.

 

[Elizah Huge]

This is peak JazzFanz

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Also apply the percentage it's the 2014 draft class all over again...

Okay.... done... it was already assumed. We also need to apply all the in-between scenarios where its not just the difference between 4th-5th and 9th-10th.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yeah, explains why all the young players got no burn post ASB last year once the Jazz decided they wanted to start losing.

Wait.

Doing that for 30 games at the end of the season has a limited impact. I guess if you think Hardy holds out Lauri, Clarkson, Kessler, Collins from game 1 then you are right. The young guys will play and we will lose A LOT. Thats a better route to go than just trading one of the guys.

I mean, I told you they were very generous in that very same post. If I knew I was talking to somebody who was going to be willfully obtuse about it, I would have just gone with the more realistic numbers from the start. That's my bad.


The 30% ceiling you're citing was assuming the player we get with the 4th-5th pick is a lot better than the player we get with the 9th-10th pick. It's not the odds of getting a star at 4th/5th compared to a non all-star at 9th/10th. The number goes much lower when you change that variable, as I did in my previous post to get to the 3.2% number. If you want to go back to the cartoonishly generous assumption that Walker Kessler has a 50/50 chance of single-handedly dragging us from 4th-5th to 9th-10th, then the 3.2% still only changes to 8.0%.

And again, to make it very clear so that you don't make the same mistake as before and try to claim it's 8%, it isn't. It's 8% if we're being cartoonishly generous, and most like somewhere closer to 3.2%.

Use whatever math you need to math this all out for yourself. Good players help you win more games. Coaches will play good players more than bad players. Going from 30 minutes of Kessler and 18 minutes of Collins/Eubanks in some split is better than Collins/Eubanks and Flip? or Samanic? if there are injuries along the line not having as many serviceable players exaggerates the injury impact.

There are any number of outcomes from trading or keeping Walker. I think the ones I prefer would include getting a palatable return for him and prioritizing draft order.

If you simply compare rosters realistically with the bad teams as they sit... we might be somewhere between 5th and 8th worst. Injuries will be a factor and other "we didn't see this coming" type of events. I would prefer to take some mystery out of that.

 

[Nate505]

I'm sick to death of trading players for future picks. At the very least trade for a player that has potential to be great. Otherwise, please keep Lauri.