Early Predictions for the 2018/19 Season

Discussion in 'Utah Jazz' started by Catchall, Jul 12, 2018.

How many games do you think the Jazz will win?

  1. 60+

    6 vote(s)
    7.4%
  2. 55 - 59

    26 vote(s)
    32.1%
  3. 50 - 54

    47 vote(s)
    58.0%
  4. 45 - 49

    1 vote(s)
    1.2%
  5. 40 - 44

    1 vote(s)
    1.2%
  1. Jack Strop

    Jack Strop Well-Known Member

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    There have been a couple of times when every playoff team in the WC had at least 50 wins. This season that may be the case again.
     
  2. addictionary

    addictionary Well-Known Member

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    If they get another ball handler, they can be very dangerous.
     
  3. addictionary

    addictionary Well-Known Member

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    It
    is possible depending on how events unfold. Hype factor was a big thing last season. You might not Have it as much this season.
     
  4. hgb

    hgb Well-Known Member Contributor

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    Lakers will have more IMHO. And I don't think we'll get more than 52-53.
    I'm thinking
    GSW
    HOU
    LAL
    UTA
    OKC
    MIN
    SAS
    DEN

    But Blazers and Pelicans are tough teams. And possibly also Kings and Suns, even.
    Clippers and Mavericks will suck, also Grizzlies could be decent, but I think they'll fail.

    I'm thinking DM at 22/4/4-ish. Rudy will have 12/11 + lots of blocks. Dante will look great at times, but he's also going to look lost at times and I think his averages will suffer. But I think he's going to have a nice year.
     
  5. 8

    8 37 Contributor

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    Wow this is so trippy, when you present it in this manner i like it better
     
    fishonjazz likes this.
  6. Ron Mexico

    Ron Mexico Well-Known Member Contributor

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    ESPN power rankings for next year are out already. Jazz come it at #7. I dont mind being #7 it seems reasonable except they are ranked just behind #6 OKC, who we just beat in the playoffs in 6 games. But they probably figure the Jazz stayed the same in the off season so that means they didnt improve, which is incorrect.

    They also have 76ers as #4. They lost 2 of their better players from this years playoffs. Ilyasova and Belinelli were huge for the 76ers, easily 2 of their best 5 players in the playoffs. Im not sure they improved but either way they are not the 4th best team in the NBA. They do have an easier schedule and path in the playoffs since they are in the East but that doesnt make them better than teams in the West that might end up with worse records.

    http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...-lebron-james-kawhi-leonard-change-everything
     
    fishonjazz likes this.
  7. David Stern

    David Stern Well-Known Member

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    I have a problem with 3 East teams being in the Top 5... because its so far from true.
     
    themanknownassting likes this.
  8. Revolution 9

    Revolution 9 Well-Known Member Staff Member

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    Jazz should be 5th imo
     
  9. LogGrad98

    LogGrad98 Well-Known Member Contributor

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    1. GS
    2. Houston
    3. Boston
    4. Utah
    5. Philly
    etc.
     
    Jingled likes this.
  10. TheStormofWar

    TheStormofWar Well-Known Member

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    Seems solid, but I'm beginning to wonder if the Jazz might be better than the Rockets next year.

    The Jazz had a year to gel after some wicked turnover with some players going through rough patches. Still, then paced 60 wins in the second half of the season and they're returning everyone. I suspect Ricky will be able to connect all year and I expect Favors, Mitchell, Crowder, and Royce to be better than last year.

    While on the subject, people tend to forget Crowder was traded twice, came from a offense that didn't use him effectively to an offense with a tricky locker room situation to an offense that is complicated to learn on the fly (ask Ricky), and had some grief to deal with as his mother passed on (R.I.P Mrs. Crowder). That's going drag anyone down. Now that he's settled in and getting an offseason to center himself on a team that adores him while really getting into the nuances of the offense, I'm pretty sure he'll be good next year. He's too tough mentally not to. Then, there's always stuff like this.



    Love ya back, Jae.

    I also think Allen and Niang will make their own contributions as well. Allen genuinely surprised me in the SL with his play making ability. I knew he could to it, but to display the chops he did was a pleasant surprise. Once he's had a chance to rest and practice, his shot will be fine. As such, I genuinely doubt he pulls a Fultz. Meanwhile, Niang was utterly deadly from 3 last year in the G-league and has some playmaking as well. They'll be fine.

    Now, with Houston, they lost two players that were impactful on their team while picking up a ball stopper that absolutely cannot play with other superstars. That will cost them some games. They just won't be as good as last year I think.

    The only team that really kind of worries me is the Spurs. They won 47 without their best player and all that ****ing drama. So they dished the drama queen, picked up a damn fine player, a nice prospect, and a pick. DDR is going to play with a chip on his shoulder and Pops knows how to correct player's skillsets. They're going to be good next year.
     
    LogGrad98 likes this.
  11. KqWIN

    KqWIN Active Member

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  12. LogGrad98

    LogGrad98 Well-Known Member Contributor

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  13. KqWIN

    KqWIN Active Member

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    Umm....what?
     
  14. Stoked

    Stoked Well-Known Member Contributor 2018 Award Winner

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    It’s not that far fetched. Boston, Toronto and Philadelphia are all very good teams. After then it’s a deep drop off in the east imo.

    I’d say those 3 are top 7 for sure. Utah, Houston, OKC and GSW are the other 4.
     
  15. Thee jazz fan

    Thee jazz fan Well-Known Member

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    Well, let’s look at those three teams.

    Boston by default got better as they add Hayward, and they were already one of the best teams without him.

    76ers with Embiid and Simmons, plus some nice talent added through the draft, and retaining Redick is big for them.

    The Raps had the best record in the east last year, and all they did was trade a one dimensional offensive allstar for a perennial mvp contender. So, ya, not a far cry that three east teams are top five.
     
  16. SCS

    SCS Well-Known Member

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    My extremely early prediction is...

    1) GSW

    2) HOU (I think that they have taken a step backward though and will be more beatable in the playoffs than last year)

    3) SAS (Derozan added to a team that was really good without Kawhi)

    4) UTAH (I think we'll be even better than last year)

    5) OKC (Schroder is an upgrade over Melo)

    6) LAL (Welcome to the west LeBron)

    7) POR

    8) NOP

    LOL to anyone thinking the Lakers will have more wins than the Jazz. Not gonna happen. Unless Rudy misses over 50% of the season. The Jazz are a much better team. Warriors, Rockets, Spurs and Jazz are clearly the top 4 in the west. It will be amazing if LeBron can get the Lakers to a 6 seed.
     
  17. silesian

    silesian Well-Known Member

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    Could you explain this a bit -- why is the total win differential multiplied by 2.2?
     
  18. dong2ha

    dong2ha Premium Jazz Fan Contributor

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    these espn “experts” are getting paid for this ****. what a joke


    Sent from my iPhone using JazzFanz
     
  19. KqWIN

    KqWIN Active Member

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    Net rating is a very strong (the strongest) indicator of what a team's record will be. It's an even better indicator of a team's true strength, more than the record itself. If you run a simple regression, the formula for wins is something like Wins = x * (net rating) + 41. X usually falls between 2.2 and 2.5 depending on the season. Last season it was actually 2.58, so my projection could be seen as conservative.

    Anyways, the simple way to say it is that every point of Net Rating amounts to about 2.2 wins over the course of a season. That works in the negative direction as well. So if a team was -5.0 for the season, we would expect the to be 11 wins (2.2*5) below 0.500.
     
  20. silesian

    silesian Well-Known Member

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    Cool, thanks. So every net point over a season translates to 2.2 wins.
     

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