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Early Predictions for the 2018/19 Season

How many games do you think the Jazz will win?

  • 60+

    Votes: 6 7.4%

  • 55 - 59

    Votes: 26 32.1%

  • 50 - 54

    Votes: 47 58.0%

  • 45 - 49

    Votes: 1 1.2%

  • 40 - 44

    Votes: 1 1.2%
  • Total voters
    81
David Stern said:
I have a problem with 3 East teams being in the Top 5... because its so far from true.
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It’s not that far fetched. Boston, Toronto and Philadelphia are all very good teams. After then it’s a deep drop off in the east imo.

I’d say those 3 are top 7 for sure. Utah, Houston, OKC and GSW are the other 4.
 
David Stern said:
I have a problem with 3 East teams being in the Top 5... because its so far from true.
Click to expand...

Well, let’s look at those three teams.

Boston by default got better as they add Hayward, and they were already one of the best teams without him.

76ers with Embiid and Simmons, plus some nice talent added through the draft, and retaining Redick is big for them.

The Raps had the best record in the east last year, and all they did was trade a one dimensional offensive allstar for a perennial mvp contender. So, ya, not a far cry that three east teams are top five.
 
My extremely early prediction is...

1) GSW

2) HOU (I think that they have taken a step backward though and will be more beatable in the playoffs than last year)

3) SAS (Derozan added to a team that was really good without Kawhi)

4) UTAH (I think we'll be even better than last year)

5) OKC (Schroder is an upgrade over Melo)

6) LAL (Welcome to the west LeBron)

7) POR

8) NOP

LOL to anyone thinking the Lakers will have more wins than the Jazz. Not gonna happen. Unless Rudy misses over 50% of the season. The Jazz are a much better team. Warriors, Rockets, Spurs and Jazz are clearly the top 4 in the west. It will be amazing if LeBron can get the Lakers to a 6 seed.
 
silesian said:
Could you explain this a bit -- why is the total win differential multiplied by 2.2?
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Net rating is a very strong (the strongest) indicator of what a team's record will be. It's an even better indicator of a team's true strength, more than the record itself. If you run a simple regression, the formula for wins is something like Wins = x * (net rating) + 41. X usually falls between 2.2 and 2.5 depending on the season. Last season it was actually 2.58, so my projection could be seen as conservative.

Anyways, the simple way to say it is that every point of Net Rating amounts to about 2.2 wins over the course of a season. That works in the negative direction as well. So if a team was -5.0 for the season, we would expect the to be 11 wins (2.2*5) below 0.500.
 
KqWIN said:
Net rating is a very strong (the strongest) indicator of what a team's record will be. It's an even better indicator of a team's true strength, more than the record itself. If you run a simple regression, the formula for wins is something like Wins = x * (net rating) + 41. X usually falls between 2.2 and 2.5 depending on the season. Last season it was actually 2.58, so my projection could be seen as conservative.

Anyways, the simple way to say it is that every point of Net Rating amounts to about 2.2 wins over the course of a season. That works in the negative direction as well. So if a team was -5.0 for the season, we would expect the to be 11 wins (2.2*5) below 0.500.
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Cool, thanks. So every net point over a season translates to 2.2 wins.
 
Sean said:
A correct lil bitch, tho...
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Looks like the majority were correct according to the poll. 55% of the votes were correct. I picked the 50-54 range so I was correct too. Your post I quoted doesn't even have a number of games prediction so...…….
 
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Sean said:
A correct lil bitch, tho...
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Oh and you weren't correct btw. Your post said it doesn't matter how many wins and that they will be out in the first or second round and that they would get 5 extra games. The playoffs haven't started yet.
And lol at the out in the first or second round prediction. Only like 10% of teams in the nba make it past the second round of the playoffs. Pretty easy prediction that all of us would have predicted.
 
Looks like the jazz are who we thought they were. A really good to great team but not elite yet. Im happy to route for a really good to great team
 
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