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Election Prediction Thread

How Will The Election Go?

  • Blue Tsunami (Dems take both the House and Senate)

    Votes: 3 18.8%

  • Blue Wave (Dems take the House, senate is still narrowly Rep)

    Votes: 11 68.8%

  • Blue Whimper (Dems Fail to take the house)

    Votes: 1 6.3%

  • Red Tide (Reps make gains in both the House and Senate)

    Votes: 1 6.3%

  • Red Rampage (Reps Make big gains)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    16
  • Poll closed .
The Thriller said:
More evidence of the divide most manifested by this:



Real estate not popularity is what’s keeping republicans in business at the senate level.
Click to expand...


Ok. Let’s talk about this, because these basic numbers are being manipulated by a lack of knowledge of basic civics.

At the time of that tweet there were something like 35 senate seats up for re-election. The Democrat party won 23 of those (I think. Might’ve been higher). So that’s about 66% of the available seats that they won (at the time of that tweet).

Now, each individual senate race in a state is a straight popular vote. A national popular vote for the senate is completely and totally irrelevant.

Now California, a very populous state, had one senate race obviously. Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, won with a little over 54% of the vote. Her opponent, WHO WAS ALSO A DEMOCRAT, got the remaining votes. So what does that mean? It means in one of the most populous states in the US, all of the senate votes went to the Democrat party. So I would certainly hope that they have more national votes than any other party, even though it’s irrelevant.

Anyways, long story short, that number is skewed because of California only having two Democrats to vote for in the election, and in the end, a national popular vote for the senate is completely irrelevant.
 
RandyForRubio said:
Ok. Let’s talk about this, because these basic numbers are being manipulated by a lack of knowledge of basic civics.

At the time of that tweet there were something like 35 senate seats up for re-election. The Democrat party won 23 of those (I think. Might’ve been higher). So that’s about 66% of the available seats that they won (at the time of that tweet).

Now, each individual senate race in a state is a straight popular vote. A national popular vote for the senate is completely and totally irrelevant.

Now California, a very populous state, had one senate race obviously. Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, won with a little over 54% of the vote. Her opponent, WHO WAS ALSO A DEMOCRAT, got the remaining votes. So what does that mean? It means in one of the most populous states in the US, all of the senate votes went to the Democrat party. So I would certainly hope that they have more national votes than any other party, even though it’s irrelevant.

Anyways, long story short, that number is skewed because of California only having two Democrats to vote for in the election, and in the end, a national popular vote for the senate is completely irrelevant.
Click to expand...

IAWTP
 
The Thriller said:
I don’t think we’re “screwed up” so much as polarized.

Having a balance of power is a good thing under trump. He needs to start facing accountability.

The issue that is concerning to me is the polarization we see not between liberal or conservative, but between white rural non-college educated and everyone else. These people are falling behind economically but socially as well. They carry with them a resentment and anger that fuels fascism. They’re so disconnected with 21st century economics and social norms.

This matters because they control the senate due to their control of the majority of America’s Landmass.

So while America’s population continues to trend towards diversity, urbanization, and advanced education, the other side trends the other way.

I don’t meant to disbarage White rural non-college Educated, but how do you expect to function in this 21st century ever dependent on service jobs in urban centers that require more education?

And is it good for America to be ruled (in the senate) by a number of large west and southern states with values and priorities so divergent to the rest of the country? The senate won’t vote for women’s rights or climate change because these aren’t the priorities of the majority of states yet they are top priorities of the majority of the country’s population. The senate after tonight will increasingly be the minority of the country ruling over the majority.
Click to expand...
If we survive this Trump led chaos, and I think we will, this will be seen as the beginning of the end of the Republican party. They are winning now on issues that the rising, educated, generation oppose. Fear fades, and when it does the lie will be exposed. OZ can't protect the man behind the curtain forever. Women's rights, gun violence, isolationism, freedom of the press, free trade, huge deficits, defense alliances, and global warming & the environment are all losing issues with younger voters. It may take some time, but Trump will wreck the Republican party.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using JazzFanz mobile app
 
Y’all said that two years ago, and yet here we are.

As long as the economy is doing well, support will be there for Trump.
 
Stoked said:
And the judiciary has and continues to be dramatically changed for decades to come.
Click to expand...

Oh sure.

But once the democrats are back in power they’ll pack the Supreme Court. Because when you can’t pass “laws” through the House or Senate, you use the SC.

It’s awful, and I hate it. But it’s where we are. The House will not work across lines. The Senate will not work across lines. The House and Senate won’t work together. And the President won’t work across lines (and it wasn’t just Trump either). The political divide is increasing, and the more it increases, the less **** will actually get done and the more we’ll complain and blame the side we don’t like.
 
RandyForRubio said:
Oh sure.

But once the democrats are back in power they’ll pack the Supreme Court. Because when you can’t pass “laws” through the House or Senate, you use the SC.

It’s awful, and I hate it. But it’s where we are. The House will not work across lines. The Senate will not work across lines. The House and Senate won’t work together. And the President won’t work across lines (and it wasn’t just Trump either). The political divide is increasing, and the more it increases, the less **** will actually get done and the more we’ll complain and blame the side we don’t like.
Click to expand...

Let's be clear: not working across the aisle was a strategy set by Gingrich to put the Republicans in power, which they have adopted whole-heartedly. There is not equal blame here.
 
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