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Fan Duel Win Totals -- Jazz at 27.5 wins

SoberasHotRod said:
Good point. How many extra wins per year do you think we will get because of our extra home court advantage.
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It is already accounted for in the numbers of existing Jazz players and thus is already baked into the numbers for the most part....but to answer your question, the Jazz win approximately 3 more games each year due to the extra home court advantage.
 
KqWIN said:
Keep in mind, this is very rudimentary. I wouldn't really call it a model...but I think that range you came up with is pretty fair and reflects what we're seeing Vegas. Everyone has our line at around 29.5....I would take the under personally but I think we've found a reasonable ball park.

I think the higher outcomes are not impossible, but they will also likely be blocked by grimey tanking activities at the end of the years. For example, this team has the ability to become a play in level team if we play all our best players a lot and Key makes a big jump....but we're unlikely to even allow that possibility to happen. We tanked hard two years in a row where the incentives were less, I'd expect to do it once again.

Key is probably my favorite to lead the team in minutes this season, he's definitely a big swing point. I might have to do a case study on guys who had similar early careers....guys who received a ton of opportunity but were also very bad during their rookie years. There's guys like Fox and Garland who got a lot better, but also guys like Burke and Mudiay. I'll have to do a deeper dive to see what we can expect.
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I started to look for Darko comps for Keyonte as well, but didn't find anything worth discussing. If you take Keyonte's year in perspective, he started the year ok at a -2, so a little better than expected for a rookie, but then struggled to rookie expectation levels (-3), then he started to make some progress to about a -2 DARKO (similar to Clarkson), but then they started sitting Lauri and everyone and the load was too much for Keyonte and he dropped way down. My guess is if we kept Lauri and Clarkson in the rotation for the whole season and lightened his load a little he would have ended up at -2 or better.

I'm pretty sure If Keyonte is still playing at -3.8 DARKO level next year, that Hardy isn't going to play him the highest minutes on the team. So that's another consideration.
 
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