Favors and Other Defensive Players.

[BYE]

I noticed today that Taj Gibson was ranked #82 on ESPN ahead of Derrick Favors. For a while now I have wondered what the difference between Taj Gibson, Serge Ibaka, and Derrick Favors is, so I did a little comparing of their /36 stats. Favors is obviously younger than both of them and hasn’t had as many minutes. They are all great defenders; they all have good length, athleticism, and wing-span.

(age, height, weight, standing reach, max reach, wing-span)
(20) 6’10” 246 (9.2) 12.1.5, 7’4”: Favors
(26) 6’9” 225 (9.1) 11.7, 7’4”: Gibson (his max vertical was a bit low)
(22) 6’10” 235 (he’s fine): Ibaka

Stats/36 in pts, rbds, assts, stls, blocks, shooting%:
Season
15, 11, 1.1, 1, 1.7 (50/65)
13.6, 9.3, 1.3, .8, 2.3 (49.5/62.2)
12.1, 10, .6, .7, 4.8 (53.5/66.1)

Post A.S. Break
14.85, 12.38, 1.28, 1.2, 1.73 (49.6/64.2) 5.4 (Free-throw attempts)
13.58, 9.98, 1.28, .68, 2.33 (48/67) 3.9
13.13, 8.93, .6, .68, 4.88 (55/69.8) 2.25

Last Month
14.1, 12, 1.3, .72, 2.2 (57.1/70)
11.6, 9, 1.25, 1.1, 2.2 (46.3/77)
12.6, 8.5, .55, .55, 6.5 (54.5/61)


Conclusion
D.F. is a very special player on the defensive end, but probably won’t block as many shots as S.I. in his prime (Serge exploded this year on his block %). Favors is a much better rebounder than both of these guys. He is making progress on his offensive game, gets to the line more than these guys, scores more, and is learning how to pass the ball at a workable rate (compare Ibaka). In short, Derrick Favors, at the minimum, has the potential to be in the top 20 in scoring (18.7), top 5 in rebounding (11), top 5 in blocks (1.97), top 30 in steals (1.2), while getting to the line and shooting a high quality %. Favors is already better than these two players in basically ever category other than blocks where Ibaka rules, and has gone up each year/36 (2.6, 3.2, 4.8). Now all Favors needs is playing time.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Favors needs playing time to get better?

What a bold hypothesis.

 

[BYE]

Favors needs playing time to get better?

What a bold hypothesis.

Not sure how you meant that, but pretty sure you didn't read it, which is fine. It wouldn't be the first time, and this is a basketball forum. It's a tough crowd!

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Not sure how you meant that, but pretty sure you didn't read it, which is fine, it wouldn't be the first time and this is a basketball forum.

The very end were it says "Now all Favors needs is playing time. "

And the fact you are using per36 numbers to do comparisons.

 

[BYE]

The very end were it says "Now all Favors needs is playing time. "

And the fact you are using per36 numbers to do comparisons.

That was the "rah, rah, rah, let's go team" line, but it works.

 

[theNBAnerd]

oh c'mon, cy, give the guy a break. he was not making a comment about playing time, he was making a comment about how much props gibson and ibaka get while favors is a very similarplayer only with more career in front him.

 

[TheSilencer1313]

oh c'mon, cy, give the guy a break. he was not making a comment about playing time, he was making a comment about how much props gibson and ibaka get while favors is a very similarplayer only with more career in front him.

Agreed.
The thread was about how Gibson and Ibaka get way more credit because if playing time.
This would equate to the fact that nobody even noticed Karl Malone outside of Salt Lake City till the late 80's at least.

 

[Gyp Rosetti]

Cy, if my 10,000+ posts are forgettable, what the heck are yours? Butt-wiping material?

 

[Hitman]

Favors ... gets to the line more than these guys, ... and is learning how to pass the ball at a workable rate. In short, Derrick Favors, at the minimum, has the potential to be in the top 20 in scoring (18.7), top 5 in rebounding (11), top 5 in blocks (1.97), top 30 in steals (1.2), while getting to the line and shooting a high quality %.

I edited down your post because I only wanted to address these two points.

First, Favors got to the line a lot because his FT% was horrible (under 60% for the entire first month of the season) and he was getting hacked as a result (watching the games, it was pretty blatant). To his (and the coaching staff's) credit, he obviously worked on his FT, and improved his FT% over the season (it was 62% overall at the end of February, but he hit 66% of his attempts during March and 71% in April). This also stopped him from being hacked - in April his minutes also went up, but his trips to the line went down. In short, his "getting to the line" wasn't due to his good play, but opponents' keying on a weakness. If he doesn't take as many FT in the future, that's not because he is playing worse, just the opposite - it's a result of him becoming a better FT shooter and forcing defences to stop him. Ideally, of course, he'll learn to make his own way to the line and continue to improve his FT%, but I wouldn't take his last season stats as any indication of possible future performance.

Second, for all the heat Jefferson takes for being a poor passer, Favors is worse. Al gets twice the assists on a per-minute basis, and Al's A:TO ratio is 2:1, but Favors' A:TO ratio is the opposite. Right now, his passing ability is nowhere near workable. It's something he needs to develop, or else as soon as he develops any sort of offensive game, he'll be facing double-teams every time he touches the ball.

Apart from that, yeah, Favors is probably already better than both of these guys, and is only going to get better.

 

[theNBAnerd]

agreed that passing is, so far, a drawback in favors' skill set. favors played the first several games of the season without a single assist, and he only has an assist for every 9.7 attempts, which compares unfavorably even to al (7.8).

but -- and go ahead and call me hypocritical -- i'm more willing to be patient with favors, for a couple reasons. 1) he is 21, he's entering his third year, and he has only played around 80-90 games in this system, never having had the benefit of a full training camp to completely understand the decision points in the offense. 2) when he DOES keep the ball, he's far more effective than al. to the tune of 1.28 pps versus 1.11 pps. so if anybody has an excuse to keep the ball and challenge the defense, it's favors before it's al.

anyway, he'll figure it out.

 

[GVC]

when he DOES keep the ball, he's far more effective than al. to the tune of 1.28 pps versus 1.11 pps. so if anybody has an excuse to keep the ball and challenge the defense, it's favors before it's al.

Seriously?

1. PPS is a terrible measure for scoring efficiency, even if we ignore differences between each player's shot type distribution.

2. We really shouldn't ignore the differences in shot type distribution between players when considering their scoring efficiency.

Take a look at mysynergysports.com's "offense-plays" sections for Favors and Al Jefferson. It's pretty plain that Favors scores efficiently in easy bucket opportunities, which comprise a sizable chunk of his total attempts, and inefficiently in iso and post-up opportunities. Even with Favors' shots coming from much more favorable locations/situations, he produces less points per (terminal) possession than Al by what seems to be a significant margin (0.9 v. 0.98).

 

[theNBAnerd]

Seriously?

1. PPS is a terrible measure for scoring efficiency, even if we ignore differences between each player's shot type distribution.

2. We really shouldn't ignore the differences in shot type distribution between players when considering their scoring efficiency.

Take a look at mysynergysports.com's "offense-plays" sections for Favors and Al Jefferson. It's pretty plain that Favors scores efficiently in easy bucket opportunities, which comprise a sizable chunk of his total attempts, and inefficiently in iso and post-up opportunities. Even with Favors' shots coming from much more favorable locations/situations, he produces less points per (terminal) possession than Al by what seems to be a significant margin (0.9 v. 0.98).

well if easy bucket opportunities "comprise a sizable chunk of favors' total attempts", then doesn't that further prove my point? if he's scoring so efficientyly because he's catching the ball under the basket on a cut, then we don't want him passing out of that situation anyway. my point is that usually when favors has the ball, he's got a better chance to score than when al has the ball, and you kind of just made that point for me.

i'm guessing from your .98 number for al that by "terminal possessions" you're referring to FGA + FTA*.44 + TO. and it's certainly fair to count turnovers (since that's a possession that the team spent on you and got 0 points in return), but i think it's kind of cherry-picking to find the ONE efficiency metric that benefits al. i tend to prefer either PPA (points per attempt, using the broader definition of attempt that includes .44*FTA)... or sometimes i just grab PPS because it's more readily available, but you're right that it's not the perfect measure.

with PPA, al comes in at 1.04 and derrick at 1.07. eFG%, derrick wins again, .499 to .493. TS%, .537 to .520 for derrick. so out of all the possible stats, you're choosing the ONE that makes favors look like a less efficient scorer because of his turnovers. if you're assertion were that "favors is more efficient at scoring the ball but less adept at taking care of the ball" then i have no choice but to agree with that. favors basically had 2/3 more turnovers than al in 1/3 fewer minutes. but you're getting awfully choosey with your stats when you ignore 5-6 stats that say we'd rather have favors shooting the ball than al shooting the ball because of one stat that factors in turnovers.

and if we back out of the details and instead look at my broader point -- favors is only going to get better. same isn't necessarily true for al.

 

[GVC]

well if easy bucket opportunities "comprise a sizable chunk of favors' total attempts", then doesn't that further prove my point?

No. Those easy bucket opportunities are less available because they're much more difficult to manufacture.

How difficult would it be for every Jazz possession to end in a Favors fastbreak field goal attempt? How difficult would it be for every Jazz possession to end in a Jefferson post-up/iso attempt?

How responsible for their scoring situations are the respective players being considered? On a points per attempt basis, how much value above replacement player level does each player contribute given those situations?

Favors is an opportunistic scorer; he doesn't create offense for himself or others. You can plug in a very large number of other players, and they'll complete the plays he completes at roughly the same clip. The same can't be said for Jefferson. Not all possessions are created equal.

I actually think Kanter has a much higher offensive ceiling than Favors. I like Favors a lot, and he's clearly a big difference maker on the court, but dude has Kwame hands and clumsy feet. He's a lot closer to Tyson Chandler than he is Amare Stoudemire.

so out of all the possible stats, you're choosing the ONE that...

I'm choosing the one that best measures the average number of points produced when a Jazz possession ends with the ball in Jefferson's or Favors' hands (per mysynergysports.com...this is not some mathematical formula that uses an estimate for free throw attempts per field goal attempts either, so it's far more accurate). Your post that I responded to contained the following:

when he DOES keep the ball, he's far more effective than al

Doesn't it make the most sense to look at the points scored by each player in the possessions where they keep the ball and divide by the number of those possessions? If not, why?

 

[GVC]

Also, given the qualitative difference between Al's and Derrick's offensive possessions, one should expect Al to have significantly more assists (per possession/field goal attempt) than Favors. The offense is run through Al, whereas Favors gets the ball in position to finish most of the time.

I want Al gone too, but I don't see how distorting the truth to convince a bunch of message board nerds that that's the best course of action makes that outcome any more likely. A little intellectual honesty goes a long way.

 

[theNBAnerd]

No. Those easy bucket opportunities are less available because they're much more difficult to manufacture.

well i'll agree that they're FAR less available for al because al never challenges the defender. percentage is going to be lower on a weak-*** fading jump hook than an up-the-chest-of-the-defender dunk attempt. and that's my point. you're making it sound like the shot type stats on synergy serve simply to explain the symptons... i think that's the nature of the disease right there. favors is able to earn himself easy buckets by being aggressive; al frequently makes his attempts more difficult than they need to be so that he doesn't have to *gulp* make contact with a defender.

Favors is an opportunistic scorer; he doesn't create offense for himself or others. You can plug in a very large number of other players, and they'll complete the plays he completes at roughly the same clip. The same can't be said for Jefferson. Not all possessions are created equal.

i will agree with this for now... which is exactly why i think favors needs more minutes and more touches to develop an offensive game. if we're still saying three years from now that favors is just the lucky benefactor of others' playmaking ability, then we have greatly failed in the favors experiment and the DW trade was a massive disaster.

I actually think Kanter has a much higher offensive ceiling than Favors. I like Favors a lot, and he's clearly a big difference maker on the court, but dude has Kwame hands and clumsy feet. He's a lot closer to Tyson Chandler than he is Amare Stoudemire.

looking at stats, i actually agree that kanter was sneakily very good on offense last year -- better than any of us thought based on merely watching. so sure, i'll give you that.

but favors has impressive skills, so your comparison on the chandler/amare spectrum is way off. he has explosiveness, quickness and shooting ability that chandler doesn't have. not that i think the amare metaphore is the best one either. honestly, he reminds me a lot of a guy like al horford, except with a better power game.

I'm choosing the one that best measures the average number of points produced when a Jazz possession ends with the ball in Jefferson's or Favors' hands (per mysynergysports.com...this is not some mathematical formula that uses an estimate for free throw attempts per field goal attempts either, so it's far more accurate). Your post that I responded to contained the following:
Doesn't it make the most sense to look at the points scored by each player in the possessions where they keep the ball and divide by the number of those possessions? If not, why?

actually, the synergy metric DOES use an estimate of free throws. their definition of terminal possessions includes FGAs, FTAs times .44, and TOs. and that's fine if the question we're trying to answer is how does a certain player's POSSESSIONS help the team.

we're probably arguind a semantic difference. my original assertion, however sloppily worded, was essentially that i'd rather have derrick SHOOTING than al SHOOTING. your point is that, on an overall level, favors is still behind al because his turnovers limit his effectiveness. i can agree with that, too, but based on where al's ceiling is and where favors' ceiling is, i'd much rather let favors work through that with increased court time.

in short, i think we're in what my old boss used to call "violent agreement."

 

[GVC]

well i'll agree that they're FAR less available for al because al never challenges the defender. percentage is going to be lower on a weak-*** fading jump hook than an up-the-chest-of-the-defender dunk attempt. and that's my point. you're making it sound like the shot type stats on synergy serve simply to explain the symptons... i think that's the nature of the disease right there. favors is able to earn himself easy buckets by being aggressive; al frequently makes his attempts more difficult than they need to be so that he doesn't have to *gulp* make contact with a defender.

Favors earns himself easy buckets by watching other players being aggressive. If getting easy possessions is so easy, why were 31% of Favors' possessions post-ups, which he completed at just 0.71 points per possession? How many plays per game can you run an effective P&R with Derrick Favors? How many plays per game can end in a transition opportunity for him? You're looking at, what, 10 possessions per game TOTAL? What happens on the rest of the possessions? What can you expect him to provide when the offense breaks down? When the defense is actually keying on him?

Even in much more favorable situations, which were largely created by other players, with less attention and worse opponents (off the bench), Al and Favors were roughly equally efficient scoring the basketball.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Last year Derrick Favors couldn't score with Matt Bonner guarding him. I'm not holding my breath for him to become a go-to offensive player.

 

[GVC]

and that's fine if the question we're trying to answer is how does a certain player's POSSESSIONS help the team...my original assertion, however sloppily worded, was essentially that i'd rather have derrick SHOOTING than al SHOOTING.

Again, you explicitly said Favors was more effective "when he keeps the ball". Even if you only include non-passing turnovers, this is simply not true. Why you'd want to use a less meaningful measure (that is, "when he shoots" as opposed to "when he keeps the ball"), I can only speculate. I suspect it's an attempt to force the data to fit your conclusion. Turnovers count.

 

[fishonjazz]

Favors earns himself easy buckets by watching other players being aggressive. If getting easy possessions is so easy, why were 31% of Favors' possessions post-ups, which he completed at just 0.71 points per possession? How many plays per game can you run an effective P&R with Derrick Favors? How many plays per game can end in a transition opportunity for him? You're looking at, what, 10 possessions per game TOTAL? What happens on the rest of the possessions? What can you expect him to provide when the offense breaks down? When the defense is actually keying on him?

Even in much more favorable situations, which were largely created by other players, with less attention and worse opponents (off the bench), Al and Favors were roughly equally efficient scoring the basketball.

How many plays per game can you run an effective P&R game with favors? How many plays per game can end in a transition opportunity for him?..... We wont know the answers to these questions until we actually run some pick and roll with favors and give him minutes with line ups that pushing the ball to create transition opportunities for him...... So again this is exactly why he needs ALOT more minutes, so we can learn the answers to these questions.

 

[GVC]

How many plays per game can you run an effective P&R game with favors? How many plays per game can end in a transition opportunity for him?..... We wont know the answers to these questions until we actually run some pick and roll with favors and give him minutes with line ups that pushing the ball to create transition opportunities for him...... So again this is exactly why he needs ALOT more minutes, so we can learn the answers to these questions.

I agree that the Jazz should dump Al and increase Derrick's minutes. His current minutes/role don't make it impossible to consider the possibilities if his role were to change, however. We can always look around the league at other players with bigger roles to see how their possessions break down, and make realistic guesses about how Favors' shot type distribution would change with increased offensive responsibility.

I think it's unlikely that his put-back (offensive rebound) and transition opportunities would increase much an a per minute basis with an increase in his role. While P&Rs would go up, so too would his less effective offensive opportunities. Without major strides in ball control and touch, it's entirely possible (I'd say likely) Favors' offensive efficiency goes down with more scoring opportunities (saying nothing about the dearth of facilitators on the team, which make increasing P&R and cutting opportunities tougher, especially against starting defenses).