Fire up the Trade Machine

[HermanG]

Also about the earlier discussion.. remember that the way front offices create competition for players they intend to trade is that they leak information on purpose. So whenever you hear those obscure "are getting calls" reports without the immediate denial statements they are likely leaked on purpose.

 

[Jaanipoeg]

Do it April and do the full 6 months then? Shut down end of March so he has time with family and is healthy for service (also an excuse) would mean he only misses a handful of games at the end of the year though.

Yeah, I mean if we shut him down at the end of March that could still be something. Misses ~6 games, which can marginally help the tank and get the hardest portion of his military service (the April/October stint) over with. Plus, I think after his at times rocky stint in Chicago that winning most improved player does matter to Lauri. This would still keep him over ~70 games played and still a strong candidate. I feel like missing the last 15-20 games would eliminate him in people's polls.

 

[Ron Mexico]

We've had pretty great health luck and we are like 1/2 game out of being #8 and 2 games away from #6. The odds of a top 4 pick between the #11, #8, #6 9.4%, 25%, 37% - its significant. We won a bunch of close games early... think we were like 5-2 in games decided by one possession. That is now reversing. We have been in a ton of games which is great. The margins are thin and we can offload 1-2 guys and get in the 6-8 range which provides a real chance at hitting. Memphis hit from the #8 spot and ended up with Ja.

What’s the odds of a better player in the draft? Should we aim for #8 range to get a Ja? What’s the draft pick that gets a player that helps us win a chip? #1 picks are the dream right? So why is Duncan the last guy drafted 1 that won the team that drafted him a chip at that spot?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

What’s the odds of a better player in the draft? Should we aim for #8 range to get a Ja? What’s the draft pick that gets a player that helps us win a chip? #1 picks are the dream right? So why is Duncan the last guy drafted 1 that won the team that drafted him a chip at that spot?

I mean if you want to throw out all these gotcha questions and keep harping on guys that are drafted by the team they win a title with... I'd like to introduce you to Wardell Curry the 7th pick of the 2009 draft.

The higher you pick the more options you have and the better chance you hit. So if we land at 6-8 rather than jumping up... yes we have better odds at getting a guy that can help win a chip... can it be done with a pick in the 11/12 range? Yup! Your odds of jumping up to top 4 also increase by a wide margin. Even if you got a "meh" return on a vet rotation piece... its worth it to increase our draft odds.

 

[Ron Mexico]

I mean if you want to throw out all these gotcha questions and keep harping on guys that are drafted by the team they win a title with... I'd like to introduce you to Wardell Curry the 7th pick of the 2009 draft.

The higher you pick the more options you have and the better chance you hit. So if we land at 6-8 rather than jumping up... yes we have better odds at getting a guy that can help win a chip... can it be done with a pick in the 11/12 range? Yup! Your odds of jumping up to top 4 also increase by a wide margin. Even if you got a "meh" return on a vet rotation piece... its worth it to increase our draft odds.

I don’t think that is true. The percentages for higher picks are debatable especially lately.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

What’s the odds of a better player in the draft? Should we aim for #8 range to get a Ja? What’s the draft pick that gets a player that helps us win a chip? #1 picks are the dream right? So why is Duncan the last guy drafted 1 that won the team that drafted him a chip at that spot?

Lebron

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don’t think that is true. The percentages for higher picks are debatable especially lately.

Okay??? I know Steph was picked with the 7th pick so that part is definitely true.

I can promise you the first 4 picks in the draft have an exponentially higher hit rate than other 4 pick ranges without doing any research at all.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

https://nbarankings.theringer.com/

Not that this list is the end all be all... but 10 of the top 21 players in the league were drafted top 4... go through the full list and note which guys were lotto picks and which later. NBA talent is disproportionately found in the top 4... most of the guys on the list were lotto picks. There are several huge outliers like Jokic and Giannis obviously. Even Curry.

Hell... our best player was picked with the #7 pick. Is it hit and miss? Yup. Its still the best way for us to get top tier talent and it is not close.

 

[HermanG]

Lebron

Lebron was signed from FA after Cleveland had just picked top 3 like 4 years in a row. Doesnt matter who drafted him originally.. he was for all intents and purposes a FA signing.

Still barely won a chip with a team full of absolute top draft picks.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

https://nbarankings.theringer.com/

Not that this list is the end all be all... but 10 of the top 21 players in the league were drafted top 4... go through the full list and note which guys were lotto picks and which later. NBA talent is disproportionately found in the top 4... most of the guys on the list were lotto picks. There are several huge outliers like Jokic and Giannis obviously. Even Curry.

Hell... our best player was picked with the #7 pick. Is it hit and miss? Yup. Its still the best way for us to get top tier talent and it is not close.

Plus it's not like this is completely random. You hope that our front office is better than average at drafting. What we're really saying when we want a high draft pick is that we want our guys to have first dibs on drafting.

 

[sip]

I don’t think that is true. The percentages for higher picks are debatable especially lalately.

In the end is still comes down to talent evaluation but having a higher pick gives you the opportunity to choose from more players. It really is that simple.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Lebron was signed from FA after Cleveland had just picked top 3 like 4 years in a row. Doesnt matter who drafted him originally.. he was for all intents and purposes a FA signing.

Still barely won a chip with a team full of absolute top draft picks.

Kyrie then... they also had another #1 pick they got to use to trade for Kevin Love.

Anyone arguing against the #1 pick being anything other than extremely valuable is just not paying attention. When you only have the #1 pick and just championships as your criteria it cuts a lot of good outcomes/results out. Again go imagine Memphis with Cam Reddish, Cam Johnson, Tyler Herro even... instead of Ja... how's that looking. I get that they haven't won a title, but when that is the criteria then your only argument should be we should try and get the #1 pick every year until we get a Lebron, Duncan, Shaq, level talent. Like 90% of the title teams are built around those types of dudes.