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Following potential 2014 draftees

spycam1 said:
I'm way excited. I think our options at #5 still have a ton of upside.
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Me too.

And i think that kanter burks and burke still have alot of room to improve (they are nowhere near thier ceilings imo). Favors and hayward should each get a little better too.

Add in gobert, neto, cap space, pick 23, and a new coach. Future still looking good
 
spycam1 said:
Nothing wrong with dreaming.
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Although this is largely predicated on the idea of Parker being out of shape I can see Randle jumping ahead of Parker. His measurements worked largely in his favor and even though I don't care for the athletic testing part of the combine Randle did well there as well. I think much like Davis of UK two years ago Randle didn't really display his full skill set. If he goes to work out for the Sixers and has consistent range on his jumper(which I've heard he does) and some improvement finishing with the right hand I could see Hinkie taking Randle over Parker out right. I feel Randle can guard 4's in this league on a nightly basis. Can Parker guard most 3's what about guarding 4's? So while I certainly wouldn't consider it likely I don't think it's a long shot either.
 
Draft Exum if he falls. Then Gordon. If we trade down in a good trade I would be happy with Saric as well.
 
Exum falling is a pipe-dream. Orlando's much more likely to select him at 4 then they were at 3.

Cavs - Wiggins
Bucks- Parker
76ers- Embiid
Magic- Exum

is how its goin down
 
Am I the only one that would be pretty happy with Smart at 5? Could likely guard 3 positions. Will be able to guard 1 and 2 very well. Needs to work on his shot but he will be able to get to the rim, will create a ton of turnovers, rebounds very will for his position. Kind of reminds me of Lance Stephenson albeit a little less crazy hopefully.
 
Obviously picking earlier is better, but can someone show me evidence that a real dropoff occurs after the four most hyped prospects?

One of the most fascinating things about the draft is the phenomenon by which tiers start to develop in the minds of the fans, media, and probably even some team execs. Pretty much the only reason the fourth pick is so vastly more valuable than the fifth pick is because people keep saying it is.

Smart teams understand how this idiotic narrative drives the value of picks. I don't blame Dennis Lindsey for saying how ecstatic he is about the fifth pick. We should all be telling that story. The more everyone joins in on the 'fifth pick in a four-player draft' pity party actually just makes the the pick worse. It's the ammo other teams are going to use when they make lowball offers for it. It's the star treatment our rookie is not going to get when he steps on the court for the first time.

I appreciate everyone on this forum that admits they don't know with 100% certainty which prospects are a tier above others.

I'm depressed about yesterday, and I'm still trying to parse out how much of this disappointment comes from missing out on a clearly superior player or just a more hyped player. I don't know.
 
mct said:
Obviously picking earlier is better, but can someone show me evidence that a real dropoff occurs after the four most hyped prospects?

One of the most fascinating things about the draft is the phenomenon by which tiers start to develop in the minds of the fans, media, and probably even some team execs. Pretty much the only reason the fourth pick is so vastly more valuable than the fifth pick is because people keep saying it is.

Smart teams understand how this idiotic narrative drives the value of picks. I don't blame Dennis Lindsey for saying how ecstatic he is about the fifth pick. We should all be telling that story. The more everyone joins in on the 'fifth pick in a four-player draft' pity party actually just makes the the pick worse. It's the ammo other teams are going to use when they make lowball offers for it. It's the star treatment our rookie is not going to get when he steps on the court for the first time.

I appreciate everyone on this forum that admits they don't know with 100% certainty which prospects are a tier above others.

I'm depressed about yesterday, and I'm still trying to parse out how much of this disappointment comes from missing out on a clearly superior player or just a more hyped player. I don't know.
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I think you overestimate the influence of media on the draft process.
If you ask for it, I can take a look back at the last 5-6 drafts and look how deep in terms of stars they were. But I'm very sure it fluctuates heavily from year to year.
This year's drop off in talent is pretty low until 9. It's just a question of readyness and exposure what you can see from the outside.
Everyone takes a stand and discusses usage of players and interprets some ******** into it. Vonleh not being the focal point for Indiana can have so many different reasons.
Just a lot of stuff to go through and not go cray about details.

I also feel like Cavs looking at Embiid is typical smokescreen.
Look at the last 4 drafts. Only 1 pick(Irving) was a no brainer and was anticipated. Thompson at 4 was a surprise. Waiters at 4 as well. Bennett at 1 was a huge surprise. This year they'll prolly keep their secrets as well. Will be interesting on draft night. A lot of options and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if they took Aaron Gordon given their recent drafts ;)
 
BTP said:
I think you overestimate the influence of media on the draft process.
If you ask for it, I can take a look back at the last 5-6 drafts and look how deep in terms of stars they were. But I'm very sure it fluctuates heavily from year to year.
This year's drop off in talent is pretty low until 9. It's just a question of readyness and exposure what you can see from the outside.
Everyone takes a stand and discusses usage of players and interprets some ******** into it. Vonleh not being the focal point for Indiana can have so many different reasons.
Just a lot of stuff to go through and not go cray about details.

I also feel like Cavs looking at Embiid is typical smokescreen.
Look at the last 4 drafts. Only 1 pick(Irving) was a no brainer and was anticipated. Thompson at 4 was a surprise. Waiters at 4 as well. Bennett at 1 was a huge surprise. This year they'll prolly keep their secrets as well. Will be interesting on draft night. A lot of options and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if they took Aaron Gordon given their recent drafts ;)
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I don't think its the media so much as the phenomenon of hype. It happens everywhere. It's human nature. For example, the Harry Potter books are amazing, but are they orders of magnitute more entertaining than the next most popular fantasy series?

With the NBA draft it's funny how just being in the conversation with another player allows them to share each other's hype. But if you're a tier below, the hype transfer is severed. Whenever I hear the phrase "x-player draft," I know something is fishy. Past two-player drafts (human nature's favorite; we love rivalries!): Rose/Beasley, Wall/Turner, Irving/Williams. Notice a trend? Man those teams must have felt lucky getting the second pick in a two-player draft.

I remember the whining on here when the Jazz got third pick in 2011, just missing out on the clear-cut top two. Based on the tiers it was really no better than the eighth pick. No one knew who we were going to go with. It was kind of a bummer at the time, but looking back we dodged a bullet. No team could have resisted the hype and picked anyone but Derrick Williams.

If the hype stays the way it is now, the same thing is bound to happen with the fourth pick. Orlando will have very little choice but to take the player that falls to them. Not saying this player will bust, but it's important to question why the top four are so special because there's a lot more to the cognitive algebra that put them there than simply production * potential.
 
mct said:
Obviously picking earlier is better, but can someone show me evidence that a real dropoff occurs after the four most hyped prospects?

One of the most fascinating things about the draft is the phenomenon by which tiers start to develop in the minds of the fans, media, and probably even some team execs. Pretty much the only reason the fourth pick is so vastly more valuable than the fifth pick is because people keep saying it is.

Smart teams understand how this idiotic narrative drives the value of picks. I don't blame Dennis Lindsey for saying how ecstatic he is about the fifth pick. We should all be telling that story. The more everyone joins in on the 'fifth pick in a four-player draft' pity party actually just makes the the pick worse. It's the ammo other teams are going to use when they make lowball offers for it. It's the star treatment our rookie is not going to get when he steps on the court for the first time.

I appreciate everyone on this forum that admits they don't know with 100% certainty which prospects are a tier above others.

I'm depressed about yesterday, and I'm still trying to parse out how much of this disappointment comes from missing out on a clearly superior player or just a more hyped player. I don't know.
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I get your point but do you really think the national media or other GMs read this board to get the pulse of Jazz nation. It isn't just Jazz fans who have been saying that there is drop off, the scouts and national media have been saying it. We can't "trick" people into thinking it is better than the #4 pick. However, I still think the Jazz can pick a player who has just as much potential as some of the top 4 picks. There isn't a sure thing in this draft even with all the hype. Every player has holes in their games.
 
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