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Following potential 2015 draftees

Chad Ford came out with a new mock draft this morning..

1. MIN - Towns
2. LAL - Okafor
3. PHI - Porzingis
4. NYK - Russell
5. ORL - Hezonja
6. SAC - Mudiay
7. DEN - Winslow
8. DET - Dekker
9. CHA - Booker
10. MIA - Johnson
11. IND - WCS
12. UTA - Turner
13. PHO - Kaminsky
14. OKC - Payne

- He has now jumped on Porzingis to Philadelphia
- New York gets a steal with Russell
- Hezonja is now in the top-5
- Mudiay falls into Sacramento's lap
- Dekker at #8 to Detroit?
- WCS falls into Indiana's lap
- Turner falls into Utah's lap
- There is no Oubre in the lottery

From his chat this morning as well:

Hmm.. I honestly think that Oubre will climb up to 9th. I see Booker falling to the mid-teens.
 
I hear everyone repeating this over and over again I just don't see it. Oubre looks like a above-average to good NBA athlete. But he is smaller than Alec Burks, Gordon Hayward and Rodney Hood based on standing reach. He isn't a freak like Westbrook.

JP Tokoto is a superior athlete---who can barely play ball. Really is Oubre that much of better athlete than Burks?

For wings, wingspan is more meaningful measurement because they defend horizontally more than vertically(unless you are going to make him guard 4s in the post). He's not elite athlete but he's above average, and when you include the length it becomes a great combination of size and athleticism.
 
The Chad Ford podcast was really good. Chad has gotten a lot sharper. Really impressed. I'll call out a few of Ford's points, maybe others have covered:

- Thinks the biggest risk of busting in the top 10 is WCS. Almost no offense and questionable desire to be great.
- Thinks Kaminsky has some risk to bust because there is some positional confusion and he won't have the offense built around his skills and pace. Questions his defense. Thinks Kaminsky needs to pattern his game after Channing Frye.
- Thinks Portis is a safe pick, a player who will be in the league 10 years and contribute as a rotation player. Not a star.
- Thinks Turner has upside as a stretch big, but is raw and needs time and a nurturing situation, or he could bust as well. Like Exum, he would need game time and the opportunity to make mistakes. I agree with this, and it reminds me a bit of Hassan Whiteside's situation.
- Thinks Hezonja and Winslow stand apart as wings and will go top 10.
- Thinks Stanley Johnson has a big adjustment to make coming into the league. Says he's not a great athlete at the NBA level, not a lights-out shooter, but was able to overpower players in HS. Ford made some analogy to Shabazz Muhammad, which I think is a great reference.
- Thinks Dekker has a lot of upside, but needs to be in the right situation. Ford thinks Wisconsin was not a good coaching situation for him.
- Doesn't like Lyles much. Thinks he hasn't actually looked that great when he did play the 4 against his peers. Doesn't see an elite skill.
- Thinks Oubre has more upside than Johnson and Winslow. Says he could even become a Tayshaun Prince-caliber defender.
 
I don't think I want any part of Kelly Oubre. Not sure why people like him.

Because he's a prototypical 3/D wing with significant offensive potential. He's not Paul George, but he could be Trevor Ariza or Khris Middleton--a solid starting-caliber 2-way player. I don't see how he busts.
 
Today's league is made for guys like Oubre---size, quickness, length, slashing, shooting, defense, plus he rebounds. The only question mark is passing and creating on the ball.

He's also come a long way in the last year with his defensive improvement and tightening his shot release. He's working to get better.
 
Chad Ford's new Mock Draft 7.0:
12. Utah Jazz - Myles Turner

The Jazz have been looking at around seven players at this spot: Turner, Trey Lyles, Kaminsky, Johnson, Dekker, Looney and Oubre. You can make a solid argument for each of them. However, if Turner somehow falls to them at 12, I don't know how they pass. The Jazz have the ability to be patient. They have starters at every position and money to add a few free agent veterans to support the bench. And Turner gives them something they don't have - a big man who can really stretch the floor. If Turner is gone, I think Lyles is the next most likely option at 12.

Out of those seven, Lyles would be the most underwhelming. My order would be:

1a. Turner
1b. Johnson
3. Oubre
4. Kaminsky
5. Looney
6. Dekker
7. Lyles
 
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