Following potential 2015 draftees

[NUMBERICA]

A thought: if this is the Jazz's last chance to draft this high for some time, is insurance for if Hayward leaves a consideration at all?

 

[stitches]

From Kevin Pelton's chat today:

Tom (New York): Thoughts on the theory that junior and senior college players who struggled in their early college years struggle to stay in the NBA?
Kevin Pelton (1:33 PM): I think I've pushed that harder than anyone, so ...

Kevin Pelton ‏@kpelton 11m11 minutes ago

@Aheffy @AndrewDBailey @Lockedonsports Kaminsky was terrific on a per-minute basis as a sophomore.

Patrick (Chicago): Define "struggle during early college years"? Does being buried on the bench b.c the coach always plays upperclassmen - ala Thomas Robinson/Cliff Alexander - count as struggling?

Kevin Pelton (2:05 PM): My projections are based on per-possession stats, so playing time only factors in to the extent that minutes are used to weight different seasons. Robinson actually rated better as a sophomore than a junior, but Alexander did not rate exceptionally well per-minute.
Kevin Pelton (2:05 PM): One player for whom this really matters: Frank Kaminsky, who played limited minutes as a sophomore but was great when he did.
And in relation to Kaminsky specifically:

 

[Carbon13]

Good point. This is where the math gets janky. Why was he not getting time? Merit or pecking order thing with the coach? Was he playing starters?

 

[NAOS]

It's still saying you are full.

sheesh. Ok, try again. sorry.

 

[stitches]

If I told you that those are two freshman prospects one of them the almost consensus no. 1 pick and the other one is considered one of the raw prospects of the draft and could very possibly be available at 12, would that rise your interest in the second one?

 

[Cappy_Smurf]

A thought: if this is the Jazz's last chance to draft this high for some time, is insurance for if Hayward leaves a consideration at all?

No, not IMO. Grab the best talent you can get your hands on. If you have multiple prospects where the difference is negligible, draft to fill the biggest immediate need. Drafting a replacement for Hayward and leaving a hole elsewhere would be counterproductive to convincing Hayward to return. Play to win, don't play to not lose.

 

[NAOS]

If I told you that those are two freshman prospects one of them the almost consensus no. 1 pick and the other one is considered one of the raw prospects of the draft and could very possibly be available at 12, would that rise your interest in the second one?

Hurry! someone ruin this for me. TIA

 

[Carbon13]

If I told you that those are two freshman prospects one of them the almost consensus no. 1 pick and the other one is considered one of the raw prospects of the draft and could very possibly be available at 12, would that rise your interest in the second one?

u have my attention

 

[Cappy_Smurf]

As for Locke, he needs to learn that numbers can only get you so far. They can't tell the whole story, and like others have pointed out, they can't take into account for certain variables.

 

[fishonjazz]

A thought: if this is the Jazz's last chance to draft this high for some time, is insurance for if Hayward leaves a consideration at all?

Imo you cross that bridge when you get to it.
The jazz should be thinking more along the lines of "how do we make Hayward (and our other players) want to stay when thier contracts are up?"

They need to draft the best player that they can (or use the pick for a trade) to make the team the best that they can so Hayward won't want to leave. (Because we will be winning and contending hopefully)

 

[fishonjazz]

No, not IMO. Grab the best talent you can get your hands on. If you have multiple prospects where the difference is negligible, draft to fill the biggest immediate need. Drafting a replacement for Hayward and leaving a hole elsewhere would be counterproductive to convincing Hayward to return. Play to win, don't play to not lose.

Ummm this. I hadn't seen this when I made my reply. (Said basically the same thing)

 

[NUMBERICA]

Imo you cross that bridge when you get to it.
The jazz should be thinking more along the lines of "how do we make Hayward (and our other players) want to stay when thier contracts are up?"

They need to draft the best player that they can (or use the pick for a trade) to make the team the best that they can so Hayward won't want to leave. (Because we will be winning and contending hopefully)

You can do both, no? Players have left contenders before.