Following Potential 2018 Draftees

[LoPo]

Let's just take this mock as an example then: http://www.nbadraft.net/2018mock_draft

Diop, Okobo, Okobie, Frazier and Milton all there. I would take 2 with an early 2nd next year and be happy.

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[infection]

The history is a mixed bag... Nuggets landed Nurkic and Harris for McDermott a few years ago... they also lost out on DM. If you are smart and lucky it’s as viable as any strategy.

My dad and I joked about how we’d be pissed if the Jazz took Doug E. Fresh. The closer we got to the draft, the more we just wanted someone that would light it up and we both wanted him.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

Let's just take this mock as an example then: http://www.nbadraft.net/2018mock_draft

Diop, Okobo, Okobie, Frazier and Milton all there. I would take 2 with an early 2nd next year and be happy.

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But if you like a dude and he’s there at 21 why voluntarily sweat out 9 more picks so you can add another pick in a range that is historically very unlikely to net you a contributing player?

Unless you literally think the draft goes only 20 deep and all 20 players go before you, I don’t see how it’s a good plan.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Yeah, Boston was so stupid last year to trade down for Tatum.

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I would say that was a much different situation because:
1. They knew who the Lakers were going to pick because the Lakers are exceedingly stupid
2. They got the Kings 2019 draft pick (top 1 protected)

So there really was 0 risk in their trade. They knew who was going 1 and they knew who was going. If the Jazz trade down to 26 or 30, they really have no idea how is going 21/22/23/24/25/26/27/28/29. It's too risky and the Jazz are too smart. They are going to have someone they really like at 21. They should just draft him because they are a smart team. If someone gives them an unprotected projected lottery pick, then yeah, that would change my mind. A few meh 2nd rounders does not.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

But if you like a dude and he’s there at 21 why voluntarily sweat out 9 more picks so you can add another pick in a range that is historically very unlikely to net you a contributing player?

Unless you literally think the draft goes only 20 deep and all 20 players go before you, I don’t see how it’s a good plan.

But what if you like Keita, Donte, Frazier, Okogie, Robinson all somewhat equally and think one will be there and you can take another decent flier.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

So you won't find your list why?

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It's not hard. Go find it. It takes two words to search on this thread "Big Board". I'm not your damn mom, get it on your own.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

But what if you like Keita, Donte, Frazier, Okogie, Robinson all somewhat equally and think one will be there and you can take another decent flier.

I dont believe that's how the Jazz think. If they like all those players, they will know for certain who they like the most. They won't leave it up to chance.

 

[LoPo]

Bawse - I don't like #21 for #30, #34 and 2019 2nd. I prefer #21 for #26 and #38 and a future 2nd. Regardless, I think I'd rather have two of Diop, Okobo and Okobie than one guy.

I see your point though. I don't want to sell the pick off.

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[Bawse Dawg]

But what if you like Keita, Donte, Frazier, Okogie, Robinson all somewhat equally

Then do more research.

We are into the range where players bust as much or more than they pan out. You can’t go into it assuming that many dudes will be good players that late in the draft. Because it won’t be the case.

 

[Coach Ellis]

Then do more research.

We are into the range where players bust as much or more than they pan out. You can’t go into it assuming that many dudes will be good players that late in the draft. Because it won’t be the case.

Yep. Jazz will get lucky to get a contributor at #21. Odds go down exponentially that you won’t get a guy like that by dropping down at that point. Stay put or move up, but don’t move down. We don’t need multiple 2nd round players anymore. If anything, they should try to move up as close to #31 as they can and take one shot to get a guy they think fell.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Then do more research.

We are into the range where players bust as much or more than they pan out. You can’t go into it assuming that many dudes will be good players that late in the draft. Because it won’t be the case.

What if you do the research and realize it’s a crap shoot and your research tells you to get two shots instead of one.

I mean we play two for one at the end of every quarter... get two meh shots instead of one good one... okay not exactly the same.

Luck plays a big part in the draft after the first 5 or so picks. Research only goes so far then it’s a leap of faith.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

What if you do the research and realize it’s a crap shoot and your research tells you to get two shots instead of one.

I mean we play two for one at the end of every quarter... get two meh shots instead of one good one... okay not exactly the same.

Luck plays a big part in the draft after the first 5 or so picks. Research only goes so far then it’s a leap of faith.

First thing I said:

Unless you literally think the draft goes only 20 deep and all 20 players go before you, I don’t see how it’s a good plan.

That’s the only scenario where I could understand the reasoning. I think it is way more likely a dude we are in love with falls a bit and we make a play to jump up to get him. I can’t see any way where we are just fine waiting longer and being okay with whatever scraps are left from 21->26 or 21->30 etc. but no one really knows so it’s pointless to keep arguing.