If the Jazz finish the season with the third-worst record, they'll have a 52% chance of getting a top-4 pick and ~93% chance of getting a top-6 pick.
If the Jazz finish the season with the second-worst record, they'll have a 52% chance of getting a top-4 pick and 100% chance of landing a top-6 pick.
Hence, it's looking like the Jazz's backstop should be pick #6. If Flagg, Harper, Bailey Jakucionis, and Johnson are off the board, and the Jazz are unable to trade up for some reason, who would you take at #6?
Is Fears the 6th guy on the Jazz's board? Is it Edgecombe? If you believe in your ability to develop big men, is the answer Maluach?