What's new
By:

Following Potential 2025 Draftees

Ferguson_Mellochill said:
I'm one of those who believes that some of the lottery picks are, in fact, rigged. The Cooper pick will be rigged for someone, whether it's for Utah or someone like Brooklyn, who could use the help.

One problem with the Jazz is that the fans enthusiastically support the team regardless of the product that gets put out on the court, so the league might be less motivated to throw Utah a bone. It's the franchises that need real help to keep fans interested or to protect their valuation that tend to win the lottery. In the case of Wembanyama, San Antonio was reportedly his preferred destination.

Some of the picks will be randomly drawn though, and I could see the Jazz getting the 3rd or 4th pick as a result.
Click to expand...
As of now, the “lottery is sometimes rigged” hypothesis cannot be verified. (Nor, for that matter, can the “it’s not rigged” be proven true). Rigging might happen, it might not, and we might not ever know. It would be fascinating if at some point in the future the NBA admitted to doing it, but I don’t see that happening. I personally am agnostic on whether or not they rig this stuff, outright belief in rigging is just too much belief for me.
 
David Hume said:
As of now, the “lottery is sometimes rigged” hypothesis cannot be verified. (Nor, for that matter, can the “it’s not rigged” be proven true). Rigging might happen, it might not, and we might not ever know. It would be fascinating if at some point in the future the NBA admitted to doing it, but I don’t see that happening. I personally am agnostic on whether or not they rig this stuff, outright belief in rigging is just too much belief for me.
Click to expand...
If it is rigged we would know
Whistleblowers love to blow their whistles :):):):):):):)
 
Honestly, if it IS rigged I could see Flagg getting sent to Utah because he is the perfect fit here and would be playing Wemby. The NBA loves to have a team to hate. That seems to be the Jazz. One of the highest ranked NBA finals of all time was the Jazz/Bulls series. Why because people hated on the Jazz.
 
I don't think Demin is a lottery pick any more. He is NOT a leader and at best is a role player. Doesn't play enough defense to justify his poor offense. Even his passing has struggled in conference play.
 
David Hume said:
As of now, the “lottery is sometimes rigged” hypothesis cannot be verified. (Nor, for that matter, can the “it’s not rigged” be proven true). Rigging might happen, it might not, and we might not ever know. It would be fascinating if at some point in the future the NBA admitted to doing it, but I don’t see that happening. I personally am agnostic on whether or not they rig this stuff, outright belief in rigging is just too much belief for me.
Click to expand...

The value of top picks is far too great to allow the outcome to be left entirely to chance. Enough picks can remain random, such that the league can maintain its position that "Picks are random." However, the number of fortuitous outcomes for the league are too numerous and consistent for the odds to say this is random. A few examples:
  • The LA Lakers are the NBA's most important franchise for TV ratings, literally holding down the west coast time slots. The Lakers moved up in the lottery 4 times consecutively, receiving picks #2, #2, #2, #4. Mathematically, this is not impossible, but it is improbable.
  • Amidst this string of good luck for the Lakers, Lebron moves from Miami to LA in free agency, but the team around him isn't good enough to compete in the playoffs. Lebron misses something like 1/4 of the season with some nagging injury (a sore groin, lol). Anthony Davis concurrently tries to force a trade to the Lakers, literally quitting on his New Orleans Pelicans team and leaving them in shambles. Both the Lakers and the Pelicans franchises are in a state of disarray. Then low-and-behold, the Lakers move up from #10 in the lottery standings into the top 4, so they can add the #4 pick to their young players, Ingram and Ball, in a trade package to the Pelicans to acquire Anthony Davis. As 'fate' would have it, the lottery gods also give the Pels the #1 pick in the draft to start their rebuild with Zion Williamson. The league gets a win-win. The Lakers are now a contender, TV networks have something to talk about, and the Pels have high-level lottery talent to stabilize their franchise and rebuild. Whew! Crisis averted.
  • Houston Rockets ownership took huge financial losses during the Covid pandemic. (They're largely invested in commercial real estate.) The Rockets, who just lost James Harden when he basically checked out on them Anthony Davis-style, get four consecutive top-4 picks (Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard). Now Houston tanked their season for each of these picks. The odds were decent for them to get a high pick in each draft individually, but to move up 4x in a row is still a fairly low probability--like .50 * .50 * .50 * .50 = 6.75%. It's like flipping a coin 4 times and getting heads each time.
  • Michael Jordan sells the Charlotte Hornets. The new ownership gets the #2 pick in the draft (Brandon Miller), which effectively helps to sweeten the deal. The deal officially closes 7 weeks later.
  • The Milwaukee Bucks are sold to new ownership, who likewise then get the #2 pick in the draft (Jabari Parker), which effectively helps to sweeten the deal.
  • Cleveland fans were literally rioting and burning Lebron jerseys when he left in free agency to go to Miami. The following summer, the Cavs get the #1 pick to draft Kyrie Irving and start their rebuild. One #1 pick isn't enough for the franchise to recover from losing Lebron, so then Cleveland proceeds to soon win two more #1 picks back-to-back (Anthony Bennett and Andrew Wiggins). Fans get over losing Lebron somewhat, though he decides to go back to Cleveland to team up with Kyrie if the Cavs will trade one of those #1 picks back to Minnesota for Kevin Love. Such a feel-good story.
If I'm a conspiracy theorist this year, I don't see a particularly egregious situation that requires intervention, but I'd keep an eye on Brooklyn. The way things rapidly fell apart with James Harden, then Kyrie Irving, then Kevin Durant all leaving might be enough of a black eye for the league to want them to move up this year. The Sixers' situation is another to watch. I don't know what the protections are on the pick owed to OKC, but I'd be surprised if the league is going to allow the Thunder to get another lottery pick to add to what appears to be the best team in the league. Why? Because then the small-market OKC Thunder will be in the Finals for the foreseeable future. See what the TV ratings look like when the Thunder and Cavs meet in the Finals this year. If I'm the league, I'm a bit tempted to put Cooper in a big east-coast market like Brooklyn or Philadelphia.

At some point, it wouldn't surprise me if the league simply asks Cooper Flagg's camp if there are teams in the lottery he'd be willing to play for. After all, a big-name, high-impact white American player is going to draw attention and help carry the league's image with Lebron aging out. Gilbert Arenas, in one of his podcasts, made it sound as though the league basically set up Wembanyama with the Spurs so that he'd be put in a good situation to develop and be successful.

That said, if I'm the league I'd be okay with franchises like Charlotte, Washington, Toronto and Utah getting guys like Ace Bailey and Kasparas Jakucionis.
 
Chargers Jazz Angels said:
Honestly, if it IS rigged I could see Flagg getting sent to Utah because he is the perfect fit here and would be playing Wemby. The NBA loves to have a team to hate. That seems to be the Jazz. One of the highest ranked NBA finals of all time was the Jazz/Bulls series. Why because people hated on the Jazz.
Click to expand...

The NBA is a TV product first and foremost. The league will probably want to send Cooper to a bigger TV market -- e.g., "See Cooper Flagg and the Brooklyn Nets take on Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics on ABC!"

I'm expecting the Jazz to end up with Kasparas, Tre Johnson or Fears, essentially a top-6 pick.
 
Did not see the game, but Demin with 9/4/2 on 4-12 shooting against the lowly Utes. I'm not sure if I'd consider that to be struggling or playing well given his horrific play against non-terrible teams.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
The value of top picks is far too great to allow the outcome to be left entirely to chance. Enough picks can remain random, such that the league can maintain its position that "Picks are random." However, the number of fortuitous outcomes for the league are too numerous and consistent for the odds to say this is random. A few examples:
  • The LA Lakers are the NBA's most important franchise for TV ratings, literally holding down the west coast time slots. The Lakers moved up in the lottery 4 times consecutively, receiving picks #2, #2, #2, #4. Mathematically, this is not impossible, but it is improbable.
  • Amidst this string of good luck for the Lakers, Lebron moves from Miami to LA in free agency, but the team around him isn't good enough to compete in the playoffs. Lebron misses something like 1/4 of the season with some nagging injury (a sore groin, lol). Anthony Davis concurrently tries to force a trade to the Lakers, literally quitting on his New Orleans Pelicans team and leaving them in shambles. Both the Lakers and the Pelicans franchises are in a state of disarray. Then low-and-behold, the Lakers move up from #10 in the lottery standings into the top 4, so they can add the #4 pick to their young players, Ingram and Ball, in a trade package to the Pelicans to acquire Anthony Davis. As 'fate' would have it, the lottery gods also give the Pels the #1 pick in the draft to start their rebuild with Zion Williamson. The league gets a win-win. The Lakers are now a contender, TV networks have something to talk about, and the Pels have high-level lottery talent to stabilize their franchise and rebuild. Whew! Crisis averted.
  • Houston Rockets ownership took huge financial losses during the Covid pandemic. (They're largely invested in commercial real estate.) The Rockets, who just lost James Harden when he basically checked out on them Anthony Davis-style, get four consecutive top-4 picks (Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard). Now Houston tanked their season for each of these picks. The odds were decent for them to get a high pick in each draft individually, but to move up 4x in a row is still a fairly low probability--like .50 * .50 * .50 * .50 = 6.75%. It's like flipping a coin 4 times and getting heads each time.
  • Michael Jordan sells the Charlotte Hornets. The new ownership gets the #2 pick in the draft (Brandon Miller), which effectively helps to sweeten the deal. The deal officially closes 7 weeks later.
  • The Milwaukee Bucks are sold to new ownership, who likewise then get the #2 pick in the draft (Jabari Parker), which effectively helps to sweeten the deal.
  • Cleveland fans were literally rioting and burning Lebron jerseys when he left in free agency to go to Miami. The following summer, the Cavs get the #1 pick to draft Kyrie Irving and start their rebuild. One #1 pick isn't enough for the franchise to recover from losing Lebron, so then Cleveland proceeds to soon win two more #1 picks back-to-back (Anthony Bennett and Andrew Wiggins). Fans get over losing Lebron somewhat, though he decides to go back to Cleveland to team up with Kyrie if the Cavs will trade one of those #1 picks back to Minnesota for Kevin Love. Such a feel-good story.
If I'm a conspiracy theorist this year, I don't see a particularly egregious situation that requires intervention, but I'd keep an eye on Brooklyn. The way things rapidly fell apart with James Harden, then Kyrie Irving, then Kevin Durant all leaving might be enough of a black eye for the league to want them to move up this year. The Sixers' situation is another to watch. I don't know what the protections are on the pick owed to OKC, but I'd be surprised if the league is going to allow the Thunder to get another lottery pick to add to what appears to be the best team in the league. Why? Because then the small-market OKC Thunder will be in the Finals for the foreseeable future. See what the TV ratings look like when the Thunder and Cavs meet in the Finals this year. If I'm the league, I'm a bit tempted to put Cooper in a big east-coast market like Brooklyn or Philadelphia.

At some point, it wouldn't surprise me if the league simply asks Cooper Flagg's camp if there are teams in the lottery he'd be willing to play for. After all, a big-name, high-impact white American player is going to draw attention and help carry the league's image with Lebron aging out. Gilbert Arenas, in one of his podcasts, made it sound as though the league basically set up Wembanyama with the Spurs so that he'd be put in a good situation to develop and be successful.

That said, if I'm the league I'd be okay with franchises like Charlotte, Washington, Toronto and Utah getting guys like Ace Bailey and Kasparas Jakucionis.
Click to expand...
Ferg, thanks for the thoughtful, well-considered response. I will really mull it over. I simply don't claim to know one way or another, but you provided much to think about, which is all one can really ask.
 
David Hume said:
Ferg, thanks for the thoughtful, well-considered response. I will really mull it over. I simply don't claim to know one way or another, but you provided much to think about, which is all one can really ask.
Click to expand...

I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. I'll just say that if I were in charge of dolling out these high-value assets, I would consider the health of the league and the health of the individual franchises that I'm charged with taking care of. Unfortunately, professional sports is now primarily a media product. Digital platforms have undermined real-time broadcast media in general, and live sports has become one of, if not the, most powerful media products. So audience aggregation is an important consideration.

To keep the game going and to keep everyone rich, the league has to make money on broadcast and streaming rights. They need superstars in big markets to bring in the casual viewers. It's just that the smaller markets have much savvier GMs, like Sam Presti. Denver broke the system by drafting a perennial MVP in the 2nd round. Milwaukee broke the system by drafting a back-to-back MVP in the mid-1st round. OKC broke the system by acquiring SGA and watching him blossom into an MVP. The Jazz broke the system by drafting Stockton and Malone outside the top 10.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page
Back
Top