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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

cowhide said:
If the Jazz don't get the #1 pick then tanking was not worth it. I certainly don't want to tank again because there is no guarantee of the top pick. Was not impressed with the Duke center during the NCAA tournament. His hands were made of stone and his offense was limited.
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By tanking we ensured that we can pick one of the guys we realistically can say they have a chance to be a star.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Sometimes the hardest questions on a test are the ones that appear easy but they trick you by making you think they are an easy question. I think Ace Bailey is the draft version of that question.

6-10 young athlete that can shoot... don't overthink it.

Can he shoot? Like there are some bad misses. Watch the free throws... they miss and some are off.
How athletic is he if he never really gets to the rim? He's an impactful defender sometimes.
He's young... is that why his game processing seems bad? Or is he just not gonna get there.

I'm probably making the bet at three but Locke makes it like its an easy decision and I don't think it is at all.
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I think in practical terms people do overthink it. Ace is a long wing who can shoot over the top of defenders, fill the lane, rebound and possibly secondary rim protect. He has a high center of gravity and narrow hips that basically kill his first step, so he doesn't really drive on guys from a cold start. He's probably an off-ball, second-option scorer who might look like Trey Murphy or possibly Brandon Miller. The assumption is that he'll be a good enough shooter and that coaches can put him in situations to succeed. So take it or leave it. Either you want the archetype or you don't. No one knows if these guys are going to hit their ceiling.

He should get to the rim more in the pros because college pace and space suck and everyone gets to the rim better in the pros. I'm learning this after being disappointed by how little guys like Stephon Castle and Brandon Miller got to the rim in college.
 
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Handlogten's Heros said:
Sometimes the hardest questions on a test are the ones that appear easy but they trick you by making you think they are an easy question. I think Ace Bailey is the draft version of that question.

6-10 young athlete that can shoot... don't overthink it.

Can he shoot? Like there are some bad misses. Watch the free throws... they miss and some are off.
How athletic is he if he never really gets to the rim? He's an impactful defender sometimes.
He's young... is that why his game processing seems bad? Or is he just not gonna get there.

I'm probably making the bet at three but Locke makes it like its an easy decision and I don't think it is at all.
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Yeah....I struggle when people are so quick to dismiss or don't acknowledge weaknesses in the name of "don't overthink it". You don't have to overthink most athletic wings who can shoot because a lot of the concerns you have with Ace are taken care of. A 6'10 athlete should have no problem getting to the rim and free throw line....but what if they can't? Is it overthinking it because you're not automatically dismissing those concerns because it normally wouldn't be a concern with a guy that athletic?

I also struggle with the strong assumptions made about his shooting. I do think he's better than the numbers suggest, but it's not really a black/white thing if he can shoot or not. Yeah I think he can shoot, but making the assumption he's as good of a shooter as guys who were significantly better shooters is another thing. For example, a lot of people will point to someone like MPJ if the off the dribble stuff doesn't materialize in the NBA. That could be true, but also understand that it's a big leap to just assume he can fall back on being an elite off ball shooter. And if you show skepticism about that....you must be overthinking it of course.

I still like Ace as a top 4 prospect, but it's not because of "don't overthink it". It's more of the idea that he's a blank slate, which is dependent on his coachability and how ingrained his bad habits are.
 
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Not a huge Bailey fan. His non jumper shot making is better than I expected. I worry that he will never be strong enough to play in the playoffs.
 
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