Brave decision.
Following Potential 2025 Draftees
- Thread starter Elizah Huge
- Start date
Brave decision.
And all of that kinda goes out the window if he’s an elite (game breaking) shooter (on and off the ball, which his metrics suggest are a real possibility).
Tre has a bonafide, elite skill (shooting) and the tools to develop other skills as well (isolation scoring, playmaking). Outside of Flagg and Harper, he probably has the best combination of solid floor and high ceiling. It makes him a very solid pick and probably the right pick for the Jazz in this situation if he's available at #5. If Tre is not available, then I think that's when Fears enters the conversation vis a vis Edgecombe and maybe Bailey. The positional value of a primary initiator who can beat and manipulate guys off the dribble is very high in today's league. With Fears, the hope would be that he can become an very solid and efficient scorer to go with it.
I think small guards are avoided since they are almost automatic liabilities on defense.
Also apart from Steph who is "uncomparable" they havent been successful as #1 guys.
Right now Jalen Brunson is showing why. Indy is hunting him on defense and scoring on him succesfully b3cause of their size advantage against him... and that negates much of what he does on offense. Don another great example. Dame. Kyrie needed Lebron.
The question for me is if there is enough evidence to believe that they will be those guys. I think letting hopes (moreso than good evidence) lead our decision making is a trap.
If the evidence isn’t strong enough then I think building infrastructure for a star by trading down (and up) is worth considering
Simplifying further, order of priority:
1. Offensive engines (players that generate open shots with the ball in their hands and/or elite gravity)
2. infrastructure pieces (+ secondary playmakers, defensive pieces, and/or shooters)
3. pure scorers (empty-ish calories)
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I did a lot of this last draft cycle, so maybe I can find it, but small guards are overrepresented in all star games than pretty much any other group when you consider their draft position. I think they fall in the draft because of the obvious issues with small guards, but there are lots of them that turn into good players. Just this year in the all star game we had Dame, Mitchell, Trae, Maxey, Brunson, and Steph. If you're looking for the MVP type guy I think this falls apart. But if you're just looking for a really good player, I think small guard is not a huge deterrent because there are just so many of them that are.
For Jase, I think he's at the intersection of two things that we underrate. One we be the small guard thing I just mentioned. I think the fact that they are an undesirable archetype makes them underrated to some extent. The other thing would be lower usage players and their star potential. When you exclude the obvious elite prospect (this year would be Flagg and Harper), lower usage guys turn into stars at about the same rate as high usage players. It's almost 50/50, but I'm not sure people view it is a 50/50. When you're trying to find a star, I think the ability to scale up is something we should think about more.
I did notice that he was very left hand dominant and yes it does worry me a bit. But I guess I'm a little biased because I saw how successful Mitchell was despite being so right hand dominant.
If the Sixers stay at 3, it's kind of hard to see them passing on Tre given his skillset fits their team now and gives them upside if they move on from the Embiid era.
I'd add to this that while it is not a 100%, there are a lot of examples of lower usage guys becoming higher usage guys in the NBA. College teams aren't always constructed well. Even in this NIL+transfer portal era we have a lot of team with rosters that don't make sense and have players with overlapping skillsets. It seems crazy now that a guy like Jared McCain would have to take step back in favor of guys like Roach and Proctor, but that happens all the time. When I look at Michigan St's roster I see a roster that didn't allow for Jase to take on a large role. When I watch his film and look at his numbers I see a guy who has a really good chance of performing in an expanded role. His role expanded a little once he became the starter and his efficiency was still great. I think he can push it even further. The top 4 minute getters on his team were all smaller guards who want to play with the ball/shoot a lot. It seems criminal that they didn't feature him more, but that's just how this goes in the NCAA sometimes. Upperclassmen get the priority.
The fact that none of the Utah media have been talking about Ace Bailey the last couple of weeks is a bit odd, considering there's a real chance he gets to #5.
Locke has talked about him plenty
I have Jase ranked over Pettiford currently, but I'm not sure I will come draft time.