Following Potential 2025 Draftees

[NAOS_pt2]

I'm saying that the total evidence suggests he's probably closer to an 80% FT shooter and this is just bad luck.

But it's disconcerting even though it's probably just bad luck.

I think you should take a look at your use of the terms "random" and "luck". They seem pretty ******.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

I think you should take a look at your use of the terms "random" and "luck". They seem pretty ******.

Okay, let's be very precise.

Modeling free throw percentage as a random process with some intrinsic mean and variance, it appears likely that the 28/51 Ace is currently shooting from the line does not reflect his the actual mean of his free throw percentage. Instead, given that there is a larger sample of him making free throws at a much higher percentage before college, it makes more sense to estimate the parameter of his mean free throw percentage as closer to 80% than 55%. If he continues to shoot poorly from the line in college, then the estimate for the parameter of his mean free throw percentage will have to be revised downwards.

This modeling process is used more predicatively than descriptively as there are essentially no truly random events in basketball and with every single variable modeled, every outcome could be predicted perfectly. However, this is currently impossible and we can assume that the factors that cause made or missed free throws follow a random process centered around a hypothetical mean value that varies from player to player.

Or are you now going to get mad about me using big words after you got mad at me for using words colloquially?

 

[KqWIN]

Ace is down to 55% from the line.

.... What?

I'm guessing most of this is just randomness, but man.

Do you have the numbers on his HS FT%? I've heard the same thing that it was fine.

His FT's are very odd because even though it's unlikely to be 55%, FT stabilizes fairly quickly. I'm still not taking the 55% at face value, but I'm still seeing it as a big warning sign when it comes to his ability as a 3 point shooter.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Do you have the numbers on his HS FT%? I've heard the same thing that it was fine.

His FT's are very odd because even though it's unlikely to be 55%, FT stabilizes fairly quickly. I'm still not taking the 55% at face value, but I'm still seeing it as a big warning sign when it comes to his ability as a 3 point shooter.

He should do like a fade away or like a floater from 15 feet. Its too easy.

 

[KqWIN]

He should do like a fade away or like a floater from 15 feet. Its too easy.

I unironically think those percentages are close lol. His shotmaking is legitimately elite, one of the best I've seen....but all of the other indicators I like to look at, he's just trash lol.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

Do you have the numbers on his HS FT%? I've heard the same thing that it was fine.

His FT's are very odd because even though it's unlikely to be 55%, FT stabilizes fairly quickly. I'm still not taking the 55% at face value, but I'm still seeing it as a big warning sign when it comes to his ability as a 3 point shooter.

MaxPreps says he shot 90% in his senior season from the line, but I was trying to track down the exact makes/attempts and couldn't find it because high school basketball shooting stats are kept terribly, wheeeeeee

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I unironically think those percentages are close lol. His shotmaking is legitimately elite, one of the best I've seen....but all of the other indicators I like to look at, he's just trash lol.

I've played with this guy at the gym for years that I swear shoots twice as good on contested jumpers than uncontested jumpers. Some people just need some urgency or something lol.

 

[NAOS_pt2]

Okay, let's be very precise.

Modeling free throw percentage as a random process with some intrinsic mean and variance, it appears likely that the 28/51 Ace is currently shooting from the line does not reflect his the actual mean of his free throw percentage. Instead, given that there is a larger sample of him making free throws at a much higher percentage before college, it makes more sense to estimate the parameter of his mean free throw percentage as closer to 80% than 55%. If he continues to shoot poorly from the line in college, then the estimate for the parameter of his mean free throw percentage will have to be revised downwards.

This modeling process is used more predicatively than descriptively as there are essentially no truly random events in basketball and with every single variable modeled, every outcome could be predicted perfectly. However, this is currently impossible and we can assume that the factors that cause made or missed free throws follow a random process centered around a hypothetical mean value that varies from player to player.

Or are you now going to get mad about me using big words after you got mad at me for using words colloquially?

ok. do "bad luck" next.

 

[KqWIN]

MaxPreps says he shot 90% in his senior season from the line, but I was trying to track down the exact makes/attempts and couldn't find it because high school basketball shooting stats are kept terribly, wheeeeeee

Hmm...it seems as though that's probably not a complete set. Either way, I'm just not bought into him as a three point shooter. Due to his lack of handle, stiffness, and inability to get to the basket he's been compared to elite off ball shooters. I think he's probably a better shooter than his current percentages show, but I have a really hard time comparing him to the elite of the elite as far as shooters go.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

Hmm...it seems as though that's probably not a complete set. Either way, I'm just not bought into him as a three point shooter. Due to his lack of handle, stiffness, and inability to get to the basket he's been compared to elite off ball shooters. I think he's probably a better shooter than his current percentages show, but I have a really hard time comparing him to the elite of the elite as far as shooters go.

Oh, I don't think he's an elite elite shooter either. Probably closer to someone like Harrison Barnes.

 

[fishonjazz]

Demin has flashes, but he probably could use another year of seasoning. As a BYU fan I'd love that, and with his NIL money it may be palatable for him to want to play a year with AJ and get a lot of overflow attention if his stock drops into the teens this year.

This is my hope as well
Demin, AJ, Catchings (hoping he comes back too), and Staton would constitute the most talent BYU has ever had on one roster.

 

[fishonjazz]

Guys can change their games over time, sure, but assuming he can pass when he has not shown that part of his game is a huge risk.

This current Jazz team desperately needs some high level ball handlers and passers. That should be a high priority for our draft picks this year.

Also need a high level bucket getter.
Jazz kinda need everything