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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

NUMBERICA said:
Then I come back to my ancillary point: if 42.7% on a two-pointer is relatively good for the shot type, maybe it’s a terrible shot to be taking.

I love Giannis, I would trade a lot to get him, but I would not trade one of the bluest chips we’ve ever seen (and team control for 7+ years) for a 30-year old that’s reliant on outlier-athleticism to generate good shots (under a two-year contract).
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Unfortunately... on that team... he will have to shoot it. Its bad but as a mega creator he needed to add to his bag and appears to have done so.

I agree on the larger point. I would be concerned on injuries a shrunken window and free agency.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Unfortunately... on that team... he will have to shoot it. Its bad but as a mega creator he needed to add to his bag and appears to have done so.

I agree on the larger point. I would be concerned on injuries a shrunken window and free agency.
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But that's how the NBA works. Windows appear, shrink, players get hurt or want out. I don't necessarily think a championship is a be-all and end-all, but I would imagine that for people who do hold that position, the existence of an actual contending window would be supremely important. No matter how brief (they usually are). See: Toronto.

There's a long, long way from drafting Cooper Flagg to the NBA finals.
 
Tremendous Upside said:
But that's how the NBA works. Windows appear, shrink, players get hurt or want out. I don't think a championship is a be-all and end-all, but I would imagine that for people who do hold that position, the existence of an actual contending window would be supremely important. No matter how brief (they usually are).

There's a long, long way from drafting Cooper Flagg to the NBA finals.
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Sure is. But you could have a contention window half a decade long or longer.
 
NUMBERICA said:
I’ve also started coming around on Kon but there is no scenario he cracks top-4 for me. The upside of Ace and VJ is too important (and Ace’s is higher/more sustainable than VJ’s IMO, though I find Ace’s weaknesses far more distasteful /rant).
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This is a legitimate question that I don't know the answer to: How likely is an off ball player in college to become an All Star?

I typically think of guys like Ace and VJ that don't play on ball to have lower upside. There aren't that many all stars who play off ball, for example. I haven't ever really looked at what the likelihood of an off ball guy in college becoming an on ball guy in the NBA.
 
NUMBERICA said:
Giannis being unable to shoot a basketball from beyond more than a few feet is a serious complication in his ability to sustain his play.
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Maybe past 35+ that starts to factor in. But he still has a huge window and that window is 10x larger than an unproven player.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Like I am asking myself... why take Ace who has all the tools but might be like Rudy Gay or a guy like Kon that might be Bane type dude with a touch more size (less athleticism) who knows how to play basketball. We need guys that know how to play basketball and can shoot the effs out of it.
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We definitely conflate Ace's tools with high potential more than we should. The easiest high potential guys to identify are obvious....but when it's not obvious I think there are probably more guys like Kon who becomes stars/hit on high potential than guys like Ace.

I do think Ace is a lot better than the GG Jacksons of the world, however. He has some real shot making ability, but like you said, that might just mean Rudy Gay (who is a really good comp IMO).
 
KqWIN said:
We definitely conflate Ace's tools with high potential more than we should. The easiest high potential guys to identify are obvious....but when it's not obvious I think there are probably more guys like Kon who becomes stars/hit on high potential than guys like Ace.

I do think Ace is a lot better than the GG Jacksons of the world, however. He has some real shot making ability, but like you said, that might just mean Rudy Gay (who is a really good comp IMO).
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I'm trying to think of guys with reported low BBIQ that became stars... its hard to go back and remember the book on some people. I think Wiggins maybe but that is a combo of motor and BBIQ imo and he was an insane athlete so a level above Ace in that regard.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I'm trying to think of guys with reported low BBIQ that became stars... its hard to go back and remember the book on some people. I think Wiggins maybe but that is a combo of motor and BBIQ imo and he was an insane athlete so a level above Ace in that regard.
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I still think Wiggins fits into that “obvious” category even if it didn’t turn out that way. He was still the number pick in a very highly regarded draft. I think his motor is what really kept him from being great. Ant Edwards is Wiggins with some crazy in his head, but could probably also be consider a relatively lower IQ players. Both guys were definitely better physical specimens than Ace though and I think that’s what made them “obvious”.

Low BBIQ turned star is hard to think of. I feel like there were guys who were really green and maybe inexperienced coming into the league like Embiid/Giannis….but I think you could tell they had a good feel for the game at early stages. They are also freaks of nature physically, so that helps.

Maybe Jaylen Brown? I feel like trying to find the next Jaylen Brown would be a fools errand. But maybe the same can be said for your Bane, Brunson, Halliburton etc types as well.

I think there are more stars in the second category if I had to bet.
 
I want nothing to do with Bailey.

He’s incredibly talented, but how often to selfish, low IQ players actually make a significant difference as one of the top dogs on a winning team? I’m not sold that you could get him to be a secondary player either. I don’t deny that he could be very good, but I don’t think he’s ever a very good player on a very good team.
 
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